NBA Finals MVP Odds: Tyrese Haliburton Emerges as Top Challenger to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

The 2025 NBA Finals between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers bring together two of the league’s fastest-rising teams — and a fresh group of stars on basketball’s biggest stage. While Oklahoma City enters as the favorite, the Finals MVP race features several compelling options, headlined by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Tyrese Haliburton.

Gilgeous-Alexander leads the betting market as a heavy favorite after a dominant playoff run, but Haliburton’s playmaking brilliance and Indiana’s momentum offer real value. Behind them, veterans like Pascal Siakam and breakout performers like Jalen Williams have the potential to shift the narrative in the coming games.

(Photo by Michael Gonzales/NBAE via Getty Images)

Below is a breakdown of the top NBA Finals MVP candidates, their odds from FanDuel Sportsbook, and what makes each player a contender for the award.

2025 NBA FINALS MVP ODDS

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: -550

• Tyrese Haliburton: +700

• Pascal Siakam: +2000

• Jalen Williams: +2500

• Chet Holmgren: +7500

• Myles Turner: +36000

• Andrew Nembhard: +50000

• Isaiah Hartenstein: +50000

• Luguentz Dort: +50000

• Alex Caruso: +50000

• Aaron Nesmith: +50000

• Cason Wallace: +50000

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THE HEAVY FAVORITE: SHAI GILGEOUS-ALEXANDER (-550)

Gilgeous-Alexander has been the engine of Oklahoma City’s run, averaging 29.8 points, 6.9 assists, and 5.7 rebounds across 16 playoff games. He elevated that production in the Western Conference Finals, putting up 31.4 points, 8.2 assists, and 5.2 rebounds per game in five games against the Minnesota Timberwolves.

His consistent efficiency and clutch play have made him the clear frontrunner for Finals MVP. Teammate Jalen Williams credited Gilgeous-Alexander’s mindset as a key driver of the team’s success ahead of the NBA Finals.

“His mentality. Just a winner," Williams said of Gilgeous-Alexander. "He just has an ‘I'm going to get it done’ mentality. I think that's kind of rubbed off on the rest of the team. You can always see that he doesn't make excuses. I think that bleeds over into the team.”

THE TOP CHALLENGER: TYRESE HALIBURTON (+700)

Tyrese Haliburton has been Indiana’s floor general and vocal leader throughout the postseason. The two-time All-Star is averaging 18.8 points, 9.8 assists, and 5.7 rebounds through 16 playoff games, including 21.0 points, 10.5 assists, and 6.0 rebounds during the Eastern Conference Finals against the New York Knicks.

Haliburton acknowledged the underdog mentality that’s fueled his rise from a lightly recruited high school player to an All-NBA guard now on the NBA Finals stage.

“It will never stop. I think that’s part of my drive,” Haliburton said. “Obviously, I want to be the best. I want to be great. I want to squeeze every ounce of God-given ability that I have to be the best player I can be. But any doubt is always good for me. I love to hear that stuff. I’ll continue to tell you guys in certain moments that it doesn’t matter what people say. But it matters and I enjoy it.”

With the Pacers in the NBA Finals for the first time since 2000, Haliburton pointed to head coach Rick Carlisle as a significant factor in his development and the team’s success. Haliburton emphasized the balance Carlisle has struck between freedom and structure as key to his personal growth and the group’s collective identity.

“He gives us the freedom to play our game but holds us accountable,” Haliburton said of Carlisle. “He puts us in a position to succeed.”

This will be Haliburton’s first NBA Finals, but he’s shown the poise of a seasoned veteran.

TOP DARK-HORSE OPTIONS: PASCAL SIAKAM (+2000) & JALEN WILLIAMS (+2500)

Pascal Siakam brings Finals experience from his 2019 championship with the Toronto Raptors, and he’s played a critical role for Indiana this postseason. Siakam has averaged 21.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 3.3 assists in the playoffs, and he stepped up against New York with 24.8 points per game in the East Finals. Coming off winning Eastern Conference Finals MVP, he continues to be counted on as a leader.

“When we got down — I mean, we were down 0-2 against Milwaukee — we had series where it was really tough,” Siakam said. “All these experiences definitely stay with me. Trying to, like, transfer that spirit to my team in terms of being down or whatever in a game, just always playing the right way and understanding that you always have a chance.”

Jalen Williams, meanwhile, has blossomed into a reliable secondary scorer and versatile defender for Oklahoma City. He’s averaging 20.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 5.3 assists in the playoffs and averaged 22.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.4 assists against Minnesota. Williams acknowledged the team-first approach that has propelled the Thunder.

“You get a group of guys that like playing with each other, like doing stuff for each other, just are constantly willing to make the extra sacrifices," Williams said. "I think that’s what makes you a good team.”

He also noted Oklahoma City’s ability to remain even-keeled through playoff swings.

“There’s highs and lows with every series. There’s highs and lows with every game," Williams said. "The more that you can stay even throughout it all, the better off you’ll be.”

LONGSHOT OPTIONS: CHET HOLMGREN (+7500) & MYLES TURNER (+36000)

Chet Holmgren and Myles Turner have each had moments of impact during the playoffs, though their MVP candidacies remain long shots.

Holmgren has averaged 16.4 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks in 16 postseason games. His rim protection and spacing give the Thunder a unique two-way weapon, but the Finals MVP often favors primary scorers.

Turner, one of the most experienced players on the Pacers’ roster, has provided consistent rim protection and floor spacing. He’s averaged 15.2 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks in the playoffs, but his path to MVP honors would likely require a defensive masterclass on the game’s biggest stage.