NBA Finals Odds Heavily Favor Thunder as Pacers Embrace Underdog Role “We Don’t Expect Anyone to Pick Us”

The Indiana Pacers have authored one of the most unlikely postseason runs in recent NBA history. Now, standing four wins away from their first championship, they face their greatest challenge yet.

Indiana opens the 2025 NBA Finals against the Oklahoma City Thunder as a +500 underdog, per FanDuel Sportsbook. The Thunder, listed at -750 to win the series, are 9.5-point favorites for Game 1 on Wednesday night at Paycom Center.

Tyrese Haliburton acknowledged the enormity of the challenge but made clear the team wouldn’t want it any other way.

“We know this is a great team,” Haliburton said. “If we were to win a championship, I don’t want to win any other way. You want to go through the best team, the best challenge.”

(Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

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Oklahoma City Thunder Enter With Firepower on Both Ends

Oklahoma City finished the regular season with 68 wins and boasts league MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has scored at least 30 points in 11 of his last 14 playoff games. The Thunder have overwhelmed teams with a suffocating defense that ranks first in the postseason and has made a habit of turning turnovers into transition scoring opportunities.

“Oklahoma City’s a great team,” Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle said. “We’re aware of what’s expected here. So, we’ve got a lot of work cut out for us. A lot of our guys have been through a lot of situations where they’ve been underdogs in the past. It’s simply going to come down to us being able to play our game at the best possible level.

"We’re going to need to take care of the ball because these guys turn people over at a historic rate, and we’re going to have to make some shots," he added.

Obi Toppin, who has provided valuable minutes off the bench throughout Indiana’s playoff run, didn’t shy away from acknowledging the difficulty of the task ahead. Asked about facing the Thunder’s top-ranked postseason defense, he emphasized how relentless Oklahoma City can be on that end of the floor.

“They’re super physical. They’re annoying (smiling),” Toppin said. “But they’re young. They’re young and they’re just in your mess. I don’t want to say S-H, but y’all know what I’m going to say. They’re just in you the whole game. It’s annoying. But we have guys like that, too, that annoy other players.”

Indiana’s road to the Finals has been paved with upsets. The Pacers defeated the top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference semifinals, making a 64-win team appear vulnerable over six games. Cavaliers head coach Kenny Atkinson later credited Indiana’s consistent intensity for tilting the series.

In the conference finals, the Pacers outpowered the New York Knicks in six games, relying on an offense that moved the ball effectively and capitalized on defensive lapses. Pascal Siakam earned Eastern Conference Finals MVP honors with three 30-point performances. Haliburton continued his standout postseason, delivering clutch shots and orchestrating the offense with precision.

The team’s progress, Myles Turner explained, has been rooted in preparation and the standard they’ve set for themselves since training camp.

“Well, the fact that they play similar to us, I mean, we've been seeing that every day since training camp, you know what I mean?” Turner said. “I realize that this is a different stage, this is a different team. We prepare and train so hard for moments like such.”

Turner acknowledged Oklahoma City’s aggressive defensive identity but expressed confidence in the Pacers’ preparation heading into the series.

"Yeah, we know where they had their calling card — swarming the ball defensively, wreaking havoc," Turner said. "At the same time, when you prepare that way, when you go into battle that way, nothing is really new. Again, it's going to be an adjustment period. Got to get your baseline Game 1, and you take it from there. Again, I think we're looking forward to the challenge.”

Indiana Pacers' Identity Has Taken Shape

Indiana’s success has stemmed from its ability to maintain composure in tight games. The Pacers are 7-1 in clutch-time situations during the playoffs and have shown growth on the defensive end after early-season struggles.

Siakam has been a foundational presence all season and a steadying force throughout the playoffs. Across 16 postseason games, he is averaging 21.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 1.1 steals while shooting 53.7% from the field and 46.3% from beyond the arc. His efficient scoring, particularly from beyond the arc, has helped anchor Indiana’s offensive identity during tense moments.

Siakam’s most dominant stretch came in the Eastern Conference Finals against the New York Knicks, where he was named series MVP. He averaged 24.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.3 steals, and 1.7 made threes per game, while shooting 52.4% from the floor. He topped the 30-point mark three times in the series, taking pressure off Haliburton to get the job done.

Siakam, who won an NBA title with the Toronto Raptors in 2019, said his experience helps him guide the team through adversity.

“One of the things I learned just from those guys is that no matter what, we just always felt like we had a chance,” Siakam said. “When we got down, I mean, we were down 0-2 against Milwaukee, we’ve had series where it was really tough. We had to go into Philly and win games on the road. I think all these experiences definitely stay with me. Trying to, like, transfer that spirit to my team in terms of being down or whatever in a game, or whatever happens, just always playing the right way and understanding that you always have a chance.”

Haliburton has averaged 18.8 points, 9.8 assists, and 5.7 rebounds per game in the postseason. He’s been the engine behind Indiana’s fast-paced attack and says public doubt remains a motivating force.

“It will never stop. I think that’s part of my drive. Obviously, I want to be the best. I want to be great," Haliburton said. "I want to squeeze every ounce of God-given ability that I have to be the best player I can be. But any doubt is always good for me. I love to hear that stuff. I’ll continue to tell you guys in certain moments that it doesn’t matter what people say. But it matters, and I enjoy it.”

After starting the season 10-15, Indiana closed the regular season by going 34-14. Since Jan. 1, only the Thunder have posted a better record. Carlisle’s group has carried that momentum into the playoffs, going 12-4 across the first three rounds.

Carlisle has credited the Pacers’ success not to sheer talent, but to a collective mentality that’s taken root throughout the season. From navigating early injuries to surviving a gauntlet of playoff matchups, he believes the team’s ability to stay resilient under pressure has made the difference.

Rick Carlisle’s Experience Meets the Moment

Carlisle has reached the NBA Finals six times in his career across three different roles: player, assistant coach, and head coach. Now leading the Pacers in the 2025 NBA Finals, he brings a wealth of championship experience to a team embracing its underdog identity.

As a player, Carlisle was part of the Boston Celtics' dynasty in the 1980s. He appeared in three consecutive NBA Finals, winning the 1986 title and falling short in 1985 and 1987, both against the Los Angeles Lakers. Although he played a reserve role, his time with legends like Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, and Robert Parish provided him with firsthand experience of championship basketball.

Carlisle’s most defining moment as a head coach came in 2011, when he led the Dallas Mavericks to an NBA championship over LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh of the Miami Heat. It remains one of the league’s most iconic underdog stories — and one the Pacers are now hoping to replicate.

“This is the greatest stage in sports,” Carlisle said. “This will be the greatest opportunity. It’s also the greatest challenge because we’re going against an opponent on metrics that has really changed the game.”

Players have credited Carlisle’s steady hand and proven track record with instilling confidence during high-pressure moments. His ability to blend tactical precision with emotional stability has helped the Pacers navigate challenging playoff environments throughout their run.

“I think we just look at ourselves. The film is there. It doesn’t lie,” Siakam said. “You look at it and you see what you can do better. Just being honest about what you need to do to get better.”

Haliburton echoed that trust, describing Carlisle as a coach who strikes the right balance between structure and freedom, which is essential for a point guard who has to maintain being a scoring threat throughout games while getting others involved.

“I'm not perfect. I have bad games. I'll have a game where I shoot five shots, and I pass the ball too much. I'll have a game where I shoot too much, probably could have passed a little more,” Haliburton said. “There's no right or wrong answer. I think the best thing to do is just learn from experience.”

Carlisle is now attempting to join a rare group of head coaches who have won championships with multiple franchises. His leadership has helped anchor a Pacers group that few expected to reach this point — a fact not lost on Siakam.

“We don’t expect anyone to pick us,” Siakam said. “It’s been that way the whole playoffs, the whole season. I think nothing for us changes. We just continue to be ourselves, focus on us. It’s always been us against everyone.”

As the Pacers prepare to face the Thunder, Carlisle’s deep Finals pedigree — as both a player and a coach — may be one of Indiana’s greatest assets. On a stage where experience matters most, the Pacers know they have a leader who’s been there before.

NBA Finals – Game 1 Odds

• When: Wednesday, 8:30 p.m. ET
• Where: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City
• Line: Thunder -9.5 (-108), Pacers +9.5 (-108)
• Total: Over 230.5 (-106), Under 230.5 (-114)
• Series Odds: Thunder -750, Pacers +500 (FanDuel)