NBA Finals Odds: Top Sleeper Picks Entering Second Round Of 2026 Playoffs

Half of the teams that made the NBA Playoffs have been sent home. We're left with four series matchups in round two, which begins tonight with a pair of games.

Both No. 1 seeds are still in the postseason tournament: but with very different paths to the conference semifinals. One, the Oklahoma City Thunder, swept aside its opponent to get here. But the Detroit Pistons needed a three-game winning streak to come back to defeat the Orlando Magic in seven games.

(Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Not surprisingly, the top seeds are among the shortest odds to win the NBA Finals next month. Which isn't necessarily the way to win money in your basketball betting. In this NBA Futures article I pick two teams that could be the best sleepers.

Tonight, the Philadelphia 76ers will be in New York at Madison Square Garden to face the Knicks in Game 1. In the Western Conference we'll see Minnesota taking on the Spurs in San Antonio in a matchup of No. 6 vs No. 2.

NBA Playoffs: Second Round Matchups

• Cleveland Cavaliers (4) vs Detroit Pistons (1): Game 1 on May 5 at 7 p.m. ET on Peacock and NBC SN
• Philadelphia 76ers (7) vs New York Knicks (3): Game 1 on May 4 at 8 p.m. ET on Peacock and NBC
• Los Angeles Lakers (4) vs Oklahoma City Thunder (1): Game 1 on May 5 at 8:30 p.m. ET on Peacock and NBC
• Minnesota Timberwolves (6) vs San Antonio Spurs (2): Game 1 on May 4 at 9:30 p.m. ET on Peacock and NBCSN

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Current Odds to win NBA Finals

The OKC Thunder are the NBA's youngest team, and yet they enter the second round as heavy favorites to win another championship.

• Oklahoma City Thunder ... -145
• San Antonio Spurs ... +370
• New York Knicks ... +850
• Detroit Pistons ... +1800
• Cleveland Cavaliers ... +2200
• Los Angeles Lakers ... +2800
• Philadelphia 76ers ... +4000
• Minnesota Timberwolves ... +10000

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook

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Why the Thunder will win again

The Thunder have barely made a rumble in this postseason, and they're still undefeated. In round two they've drawn a patsy: the woefully overmatched Lakers. Once the Thunder dispatch Old Man James, they'll have their biggest challenge with the Spurs (most likely). If they take that series, none of the Eastern Conference teams seem up to the quality of play to compete. Two-in-a-row seems highly likely, and the oddsmakers agree.

How the Spurs could topple the champs

Yes, Victor Wembanyama has earned loads of headlines and attention for his breakout MVP-caliber season. But, it still seems like most NBA observers are underestimating the Spurs. That's a mistake: San Antonio won only two fewer games than OKC, and it could be argued that the Spurs were a better overall team. The Spurs rated second in the NBA (to Detroit) in Defensive Rating. The team was third in Offensive Rating (behind OKC and the Knicks). Which means Wemby & Co. have the most well-rounded squad in the game, and the most talented still standing in the playoffs. If they are going to defeat the Thunder, the Spurs will need to push the champs aside in the conference finals. That's not impossible: OKC lost a game by 42 points in the conference finals last year, and won another by only two points. The Spurs would only need to grab one road win.

Why the Sixers feel different this time

Hey look! That's Joel Embiid who came through big in Game 7 against the Celtics. For the first time in a generation, the Sixers have multiple superstars playing clutch ball in the postseason. Tyrese Maxey is a game-changer, averaging 26.9 PPG in the first round. With Embiid and a revitalized Paul George, Philly has an opportunity to get past the Knicks, and if they do, this team matches up well against either the Pistons or Cavs in the conference finals. From there, it's four wins away from the Knicks winning their first title since 1973.

Best Sleeper Bet to Win the NBA Finals: Knicks at +850

The New York Knicks at +850 (DraftKings) are one of the three top candidates to win the title. But, given the heavy odds in favor of OKC, the +850 is enticing for hoops bettors.

A winning $100 bet would pay out $850 plus your stake if the Knicks squeeze past the 76ers (a No. 7 seed) and the less-than-scary Pistons or Cavaliers. Though it is important to note that Detroit defeated the Knicks in all three of their matchups this season.