NBA Finals Series Odds Shift Sharply After Pacers’ Game 1 Stunner vs. Thunder

The Indiana Pacers didn’t lead in Game 1 of the NBA Finals until 0.3 seconds remained on the clock. But when Tyrese Haliburton’s 21-foot jumper dropped through the net, the entire tone of the series shifted — both on the court and in the betting markets.

Indiana’s stunning 111-110 victory Thursday night at Paycom Center capped a furious 15-point fourth-quarter comeback. The Pacers closed the game on a 12-2 run, stole home-court advantage, and sent a clear message to sportsbooks and bettors alike: they belong on this stage.

(Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

Heading into the series, Indiana was a heavy underdog at FanDuel Sportsbook, listed at +500 to win the title. The Oklahoma City Thunder, behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and a deep, young roster, opened as -750 favorites to capture the franchise’s first championship since relocating from Seattle. The Thunder were also 9.5-point favorites in Game 1.

Indiana’s resilience — a defining trait throughout its playoff run — forced a major re-evaluation.

The Pacers are now +265 to win the series at FanDuel, while the Thunder have dropped to -330 favorites. Oddsmakers still expect a strong Oklahoma City response in Game 2, installing the Thunder as 11-point favorites for Sunday night’s matchup.

Updated NBA Finals Series Odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook)

• Oklahoma City Thunder: -330

• Indiana Pacers: +265

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Indiana’s Latest Comeback Drives Market Shift

Indiana’s Game 1 victory was historic in more ways than one. The Pacers became the first team in NBA Finals history to erase a 9+ point deficit in the final three minutes of a game, breaking what had been a 0-182 record in that scenario. Thursday’s win also marked Indiana’s fifth victory this postseason after trailing by 15 or more points, the most by any team in a single playoff run since 1998.

For Haliburton, the team’s ability to thrive in adversity is no accident.

“I don't know what you say about it, but I know that this group is a resilient group and we don't give up until it's 0.0 on the clock,” Haliburton said.

That belief has fueled Indiana’s remarkable postseason. Haliburton’s game-winner was his fourth of the playoffs. The Pacers also dominated the glass in Game 1, outrebounding the Thunder 56-39, an edge that helped overcome 25 turnovers.

Rick Carlisle emphasized that maintaining composure in these moments is baked into the team’s identity.

“We’ve just got to be very much present in the moment and understand what this is all about,” Carlisle said. “This is all about keeping poise and at the same time having a high level of aggression.”

Thunder Still Favored in Game 2, But Pressure Mounts

Despite the Game 1 loss, oddsmakers still lean heavily toward Oklahoma City in Game 2. The Thunder are 11-point favorites on Sunday, reflecting both their regular-season dominance and the expectation of a bounce-back performance.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander carried the scoring load in Game 1, finishing with 38 points. But after leading for nearly the entire game, Oklahoma City faltered late and failed to secure what had seemed like a sure victory.

“We had control of the game for the most part of it,” Gilgeous-Alexander said. “It is a 48-minute game. They teach you that lesson more than anyone else in the league, the hard way.”

Now the Thunder must regroup and address key issues that surfaced down the stretch, particularly rebounding and late-game execution, as the series prepares to shift to Indianapolis.

Betting Outlook Moving Forward

The Game 1 outcome underscores what bettors have seen all postseason: the Pacers are a team built to withstand adversity and win late.

Indiana’s ability to rally from double-digit deficits, its poise in tight moments, and its balanced scoring — six players reached double figures in Game 1 — make this series far less predictable than the initial odds suggested.

Oklahoma City still holds the favorite status, but Indiana has already rewritten the narrative. Another upset in Game 2 would likely swing the market even further toward the Pacers as the series heads to their home floor.

For now, Indiana’s Game 1 shocker has injected new life — and new betting value — into the 2025 NBA Finals.