NBA Finals Winner Odds: Nuggets, Spurs Trail Midseason Favorite Thunder

If you follow the NBA even a little, you probably know the defending Finals champs are having a great year. Despite dealing with several injuries, Oklahoma City has had one of the best offenses and defenses in the league. So, it’s not shocking the Thunder have the shortest NBA Finals winner odds.

That doesn’t mean they are a lock to win, of course. It’s easy to think they may be, but the team with the best record is far from a lock to win it all let alone make it to the NBA Finals. With that in mind, let’s review the latest NBA Finals odds as the second half of the season gets underway.

(Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images)

NBA Finals Winner Odds: Post-NBA All-Star Break

Here are the latest odds to win the NBA Finals posted at BetMGM for several of the top contenders:

• Oklahoma City Thunder +130
• Denver Nuggets +550
• San Antonio Spurs +1200
• Boston Celtics +1300
• Cleveland Cavaliers +1300
• Detroit Pistons +1400
• New York Knicks +1400
• Houston Rockets +1800
• Minnesota Timberwolves +3000
• Los Angeles Lakers +4000

The Thunder opened at +240, which gave them a 29.41% chance of winning the title again this season. Throughout the year, they have been one of the best teams in the league (hence having the best record). Consequently, their odds have gotten shorter. At +130, they have a 43.48% chance.

That’s an improvement, but why aren't they shorter? Come on, they’ve been one of the best offenses and defenses in the game despite a laundry list of injuries for practically every game. Imagine how good they could be if the roster actually got healthy.

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Recent injury for SGA likely playing into NBA Finals odds for OKC

I’m going to guess that their odds are not shorter because Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has had some injury issues of late. While they have continued to win games without SGA, it is easier to see the Thunder having a harder time beating Denver or San Antonio in a best-of-seven series.

Besides, they aren’t the only good team in the NBA.

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NBA Finals Odds: Our Picks (outside of the Oklahoma City Thunder)

Picking the Thunder would be easy, and they could very well repeat as champions this season. But teams with the best record in the league haven't always gone on to win the Finals. It’s happened the last two seasons, but then you have to go back to 2014-15 for the next one.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at a few teams that could knock the Thunder off their perch and win it all:

• Denver Nuggets +550

With Jamaal Murray leading the way, Denver is a very good team. But when Murray can play Robin to Nikola Jokic’s Batman, this is one of the best teams in the NBA and a solid contender to win it all.

• San Antonio Spurs +1200

They are in Victor Wembanyama’s third season, so it is not shocking to see dramatic improvement this year compared to the last couple. However, I worry it may be too soon for this team to win a title. Yes, Tim Duncan won his first championship in his second year, but he also had David Robinson.

Wemby doesn’t have a David Robinson. But this is an excellent roster that is playing well.

• Detroit Pistons +1400

The Pistons opened at +6600 to win it all this season, giving them a 1.49% chance. Historically, the NBA has seldom had surprise contenders. Most championship teams began as potential contenders with odds of +1600 or less. Denver was considered a long shot at +2500 when they won in 2020-21.

However, Detroit has been a force to be reckoned with in the first half of the season. At times, it has had the best record in the league and currently holds a 5.5-game lead over the 2-seed Boston Celtics. They have a top-10 offense and a top-five defense. If anyone in the East can upset the West, Detroit is in the picture.

• Houston Rockets +1800

The Rockets were one of the best defensive teams in the league last season, but lacked on the offensive end. So, they acquired one of the best offensive players in the game today, Kevin Durant. So far, they are averaging .3 points per game more. I chalk it up to the offense not being entirely on the same page yet.

If the rest of the starting five can pick up their game and not count on KD to score 40+ every night, Houston could be dangerous.