NBA MVP Odds 2024-2025: Other Than Jokic What other NBA elites have a realistic shot?

Denver Nuggets’ Nikola Jokic, a three-time winner, and Dallas Mavericks’ Luka Doncic rate as favorites. What other NBA elites have a realistic shot?

If there is anything we’ve learned about the NBA’s MVP award over the years, it signifies sustained excellence and stamps a level of greatness for the winner and has never been strictly a statistical measure.

Every past NBA MVP has eventually been voted into the Naismith Hall of Fame. It’s not reserved for a player who goes off statically for one season and never returns to the HOF level again, as happens occasionally in the NFL and MLB.

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Which brings us to 2011 NBA MVP Derrick Rose.

The Derrick Rose Anomaly

At 22, he was the youngest winner of the prestigious award (which is officially named the Michael Jordan Trophy) but injuries derailed his career.

Will he be a Bill Walton type HOF inductee down the line, or will he go down as an anomaly because of the unfortunate drop off in production?

As far as this season is concerned, will there be another player (like Rose) to buck the trend of repeat winners and more established veterans earning the award in 2024-25?

One thing is certain...all of the active NBA MVPs honorees are headed to the hall of fame:

1. LeBron James
2. Kevin Durant
3. Steph Curry
4. Russell Westbrook
5. James Harden
6. Giannis Antetokounmpo
7. Nikola Jokić
8. Joel Embiid

After leading the Dallas Mavericks to the 2024 NBA Finals, it might be time for guard Luka Doncic to join the exclusive group. He is a hall of fame talent and it is highly probable Luka will win the award at least once in his career.

He’s too good of an offensive talent not to and one of the league’s handful of true superstars. Last season, Doncic averaged career highs in points (33.9) and assists (9.8) along with 9.2 rebounds for a 50-32 team that came in first in the Southwest Division.

For his career, "Luka Magic” is averaging 28.7 ppg, 8.7 rpg and 8.3 apg, numbers that have only been approached by one other all-time great in Oscar Robertson.

Luka Doncic 2024-25 NBA MVP Odds

*Odds as of September 20th

Luka’s Candidacy

The Mavericks were not satisfied, making off-season acquisitions that can be described as upgrades, although to what extent remains to be seen. Dallas added future Hall of Famer Klay Thompson from the Warriors and veteran guard Spencer Dinwiddie, but parted ways with Derrick Jones Jr., a key defender in their championship series run.

Jones is a terrific young defender and that loss will be felt, but the Mavericks’ fortunes ultimately won’t be determined by one defender; it will be determined by Doncic’s health and the pieces working together offensively to accentuate his and Kyrie Irving’s strengths.

• The Dallas Mavericks are bullish on having Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington for a complete season and the positive development of center Dereck Lively II is another major plus.

There is little doubt the Mavericks will be a good club, and should they finish as a top three seed in the Western Conference we forecast Luka joining the other players currently considered among the NBA’s top five players with a MVP trophy on the mantle.

Health notwithstanding, this is a good season to bet on Doncic (who turns 26 next February) to win the coveted award. He’s going to win at some point in the next three seasons, and the momentum and confidence of coming off a finals run makes this season a smart bet.

Nikola Jokić 2024-25 NBA MVP Odds

*Odds as of September 20th

Nikola Jokić’s Candidacy

1. The Nuggets center has plenty going for him, even though the impending Denver dynasty that the media and fans thought was a foregone conclusion after the franchise won the NBA title in 2023 is not a guarantee now.
2. Joker’s team lost in the second round of the Western Conference playoffs to the top seeded Minnesota Timberwolves and have an even thinner bench with the off-season loss of underrated performer Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.
3. Losing Bruce Brown off the championship club and Caldwell-Pope should not be underestimated in terms of Denver’s hopes of getting back to the championship circle, but it won’t diminish Joker’s individual brilliance much.

Jokić, who turns 30 in February, was named MVP last season after averaging 26.4 ppg, 12.4 rpg and 9.0 apg and has now won three of the last four MVP awards.

Perhaps it was a bit of Joker fatigue or not wanting him to become the fourth player ever to win three consecutive MVPs (alongside Top 10 greats Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain and Larry Bird) that turned the tide in favor of the Philadelphia 76ers Joel Embiid back in 2022-23.

• Ironically, in Joker’s prime the season in which he didn’t win NBA MVP, he captured NBA Finals MVP as the Nuggets won the championship.

Perhaps the NBA’s 100 media members who vote on the award shouldn’t have felt the NBA’s MVP award should go to someone else other than Joker in 2022-23, because he’s that good.

• It’s hard to argue against him currently being the NBA’s best player, as his unique offensive arsenal, soft hands, shooting touch, rebounding prowess and passing ability have him on track to go down as one of the league’s top dozen players of all-time.

Barring a big drop-off in the twilight of his career, Joker will join Bird as the NBA’s only two career 20-10-5 players.

• Jokić is currently averaging 20.9 ppg, 10.7 rpg and 6.9 ppg for his career.

Jokić might have to carry more of a load in order for Denver to get a favorable seeding, and that could make his numbers otherworldly, but it could also make him work a lot harder each night, make him sit games or be less than 100 percent during the playoff push.

If the Nuggets earn the top seed in the West, Joker would be our pick, unless Luka clearly outperformed him in head-to-head matchups. We think the Joker fatigue will set in and just like Larry Bird in 1983-84, Magic Johnson in 1986-87, or Karl Malone in 1996-97, it’s just time for Doncic to join the exclusive club.

Current NBA MVP Odds

This table highlights the current favorites to win the NBA MVP award for the 2024-25 season, based on odds from various sportsbooks.

*Odds as of September 20th

Handicapping Other Top Candidates

Giannis Antetokounmpo 2024-25 NBA MVP Odds

*Odds as of September 20th

Giannis Antetokounmpo’s MVP Chances

Antetokounmpo has the talent to win his second MVP, but the Milwaukee Bucks are not projected to be a top three seed in the Eastern Conference. Should the team fall back with the pack, so to speak, that will hurt the Greek Freak’s candidacy. He clearly doesn’t have an abundance of MVP momentum at this time.

Joel Embiid 2024-25 NBA MVP Odds

*Odds as of September 20th

Joel Embiid’s MVP Outlook

Embiid’s health and durability is a top concern, as is the addition of NBA All-Star forward Paul George to the 76ers’ lineup. Just as Antetokounmpo and NBA All-Star guard Damian Lillard have to find a winning chemistry in Milwaukee, the same goes for Embiid and George in Philadelphia.

George wants to prove he’s a championship caliber star and one of the NBA’s best clutch players, and that could hurt Embiid’s numbers. Keep in mind, Embiid only played 39 games in 2023-24 after battling injuries. He’ll need to have a monster season while playing 70-75 games to have any shot to surpass the two NBA MVP favorites.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 2024-25 NBA MVP Odds

*Odds as of September 20th

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s MVP Potential

Since 1985, only five MVP winners have led teams that didn’t finish first or second in its conference. Repeat winners are also fairly common, so the Oklahoma City Thunder’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has a few things going for his candidacy, but also a few knocks on it.

OKC was the best team in the Western Conference during the 2023-24 regular season and are projected to have one of the best teams in the NBA this upcoing season, so should he maintain health-wise, Gilgeous-Alexander is our best bet to knock off one of the two favorites.

• Gilgeous-Alexander is a terrific two-way threat who is entering his physical prime after averaging 30.1 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 6.2 apg and 2.0 spg for a 57-25 club that was the youngest ever to earn a No. 1 seed in the playoffs.

Should the Thunder win the West again, Gilgeous-Alexander will be right in the mix as he was the MVP runner-up last season. As a lead ball-handler, SGA is as efficient as he is spectacular.

He will win MVP at some point (he just turned 26 in July), but he won’t win one before Luka.

Victor Wembanyama’s Longshot MVP Candidacy

SGA’s age doesn’t hurt him as much as it does 21-year old and MVP dark horse Victor Wembanyama of the San Antonio Spurs. Last season’s NBA Rookie of the Year and our early favorite for NBA Defensive Player of the Year doesn’t lack in talent to win MVP, but a few key factors are against him.

1. First, the Spurs don’t project to make the playoffs and secondly, the award doesn’t often go to a young player.
2. Only four players 23 years old or younger have won the award.
3. No player has won NBA MVP in their second season since 1970-71 when Kareem Abdul-Jabbar did it for the Milwaukee Bucks.

The other two who did it are even older than Abdul-Jabbar and a rookie hasn’t won an NBA MVP since 1968-69, when Wes Unseld did it. Kareem was a senior in college in 1968-69 and was already as or more talented than the NBA’s MVP.

So even though Wembanyama is a prodigious talent in the mold of Abdul-Jabbar (who played four years of college), don’t expect him to win MVP. It’s highly improbable an American born player will capture 2024-25 NBA Most Valuable Player, too.

Of all the six major candidates mentioned above, not one was born in or played high school basketball in the United States.

Last 10 NBA MVP Winners

The following table lists the NBA MVP winners from the past 10 seasons, showcasing players who have dominated the league.