NBA Play-In Tournament Best Bets: Warriors vs. Suns Odds & Player Props (April 17)

The Phoenix Suns will host the Golden State Warriors in the final NBA play-in tournament game tonight for the right to move on and face the Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round of the playoffs. If history is any indication, it should be a good night for the Suns as every No. 7 seed has made it out of the play-in and into the first round.

Phoenix is the betting favorite for the game, but Golden State had the Suns’ number during the regular season. That could be a better indicator of how this game will go, but we’ll have to wait and see. Let’s go over the odds for the game, our best bets, and a few player props.

(Photos by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images)

2026 NBA Play-In Tournament Best Bets: Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns Odds & Prediction

• Spread: Golden State Warriors +3.5 (-115)| Phoenix Suns -3.5 (-105)
• Moneyline: Golden State Warriors +120 | Phoenix Suns -142
• Total: O/U 219.5 (-112/-108)

Odds via DraftKings

On the surface, it looks like this should be an easy game to pick. The Phoenix Suns are the higher seed, had a better regular season record, and were a better-than-.500 team. Every No. 7 seed has made the first round of the NBA playoffs after taking part in the play-in tournament. Golden State finished the regular season eight games below .500 and struggled down the stretch before beating the Clippers in the No. 9-10 seed play-in game.

But if you dig a little deeper, the lines become a bit more blurred.

Can “Playoff” Steph Curry Carry These Warriors to the First Round?

Yes, the Warriors struggled down the stretch, but they played all but the last few games without Stephen Curry. In the few that he did play, Curry was getting reacclimated to the game and the team to him. However, the win over the Clippers in the No. 9-10 game is proof of just how good the Warriors can be.

“Playoff” Steph made an appearance in a must-win game, hitting seven of his 12 3-pointers and scoring 35 points. Kristaps Porzingis had one of his better games of the season with 20 points, 5 assists, and 5 rebounds. While Draymond Green didn’t have an overly impressive stat line (7 points, 6 rebounds, and 9 assists), neither did Kawhi Leonard for the Clippers (21/7/3).

Golden State has some young(er) talent, but it has a veteran core and a head coach who has been there and done that in the postseason. Steve Kerr knows how to get the most out of his players in critical moments and has one of the best shooters and clutch players of all time leading the way in Steph Curry.

Phoenix Enters as a Questionable Favorite

In a way, it makes sense that the Suns are small favorites to win this game. They are the higher seed, have a better record, and are playing at home, where they are 24-17 this season. Golden State was 15-26 on the road. So, despite the loss to Portland, it’s not shocking to see them favored…or is it?

Phoenix and Golden State played four times during the regular season. Golden State went 3-1 in those games, including one win in Phoenix (Feb. 5, 101-97). However, while the Warriors won the first game by 11 (118-107), the other three games were decided by 1, 3, and 4 points.

Had one or two possessions had a different outcome, we could be talking about Phoenix going 3-1 vs. Golden State in the regular season.

That could be part of the reason the Suns still opened as small favorites. However, it doesn’t take into account how the Suns played down the stretch. They went 5-5 in their final 10 games, losing to playoff teams (except the Thunder in the regular-season finale) and beating eliminated teams.

It certainly wasn’t encouraging to see them blow a double-digit lead to the Portland Trail Blazers.

My Pick: Golden State +3.5 (-108 | DraftKings)

On paper, it is easy to make a case for the Suns to win this game. Offensively, Golden State averaged a couple of points more per game, but the Suns had a top defensive rating during the regular season (112.9); Golden State ranked No. 16 at 114.1.

However, there is also something to be said for how teams are playing at the moment. Golden State showed fans that it still has that championship mentality when the Warriors stepped up against the Clippers. Phoenix, on the other hand, failed to pull through when the team needed it most against Portland.

Golden State and Steph Curry are too easy to get behind, but the Suns have covered once in their last eight games. If Golden State loses this game, they will not lose by more than 3 points.

2026 NBA Play-In Tournament Best Bets: Warriors vs. Suns Player Props

• Draymond Green, UNDER 14.5 Pts + Reb: -114 (DraftKings)

Green’s contribution in the game vs. the Clippers was critical, but not the kind that tends to show up on the stat sheet. He had seven points and six rebounds vs. the Clippers, but Green's defensive play on Kawhi Leonard was one of the keys to Golden State’s win. Green finished under this total in his last five games, nine of his last 15, and in all four games vs. the Suns this season.

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• Jalen Green, UNDER 20.5 Points: -112 (DraftKings)

Green is coming off a 35-point night in the loss to Portland, but averaged 17.8 points per game this season and finished under this total in 18 of 33 games this season. However, he finished over it in nine of his last 15 games, but in just three of his last six. However, Green has struggled against the Warriors. He has yet to play them this season, but in 10 of 12 games vs. Golden State last season, when he was with the Rockets, Green finished under 20.5 points.

• Steph Curry, UNDER 11.5 3-Point Attempts: +105 (bet365)

It almost feels like a sacrilege to go against Steph Curry on any prop involving 3-pointers. But the data just doesn’t support him attempting 12+ tonight. In the five games since his return, he has gone over 11.5 just once when he attempted 12 vs. the Clippers. In the 15 games he played in January, he attempted 12+ in just four games.

Curry has averaged 11.3 attempts per game this season. With what we’ve seen from him, this prop is a solid value play with plus money odds.