NBA Play-in Tournament Best Bets: Portland Trail Blazers vs. Phoenix Suns Odds & Player Props

The regular season is a thing of the past, but we are not quite ready to move on fully to the NBA playoffs. First, the final two seeds for each conference must be decided via the NBA play-in tournament. One spot will be claimed tonight once a winner is decided between the No. 7 seed, the Portland Trail Blazers, and the No. 8 seed, the Phoenix Suns.

It is not quite a do-or-die situation since the loser will get one more shot. But no one wants to play a game they don’t have to play. So….who’s going to win? Let’s take a look at the odds and see who’s favored.

(Photo by Kate Frese/NBAE via Getty Images)

NBA Play-In Tournament Odds: Portland Trail Blazers vs. Phoenix Suns

• Spread: Portland +3 (-110) | Phoenix -3 (-110)
• Moneyline: Portland +143 | Phoenix -170
• Total: O/U 217 (-110/-110)

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

It is not unusual to see the home team favored, especially in cases like this where the higher-seeded team is the host. Phoenix does have the better record (45-37, 25-16 Home), but it is not that much better than Portland’s (42-40, 18-23 Away).

The Suns won two of three vs. Portland in the regular season outright and against the spread, but the Trail Blazers were favored in two of those matchups. As for the total, the over was 2-1. For the regular season, Phoenix was 47-35 ATS and 23-18 at home. Portland went 44-38 ATS and 19-22 on the road.

Portland has had some issues on the offensive end on the road, resulting in the over going 17-24 away from home. Phoenix wasn’t any better at home as the over went 14-27.

Can Portland Buck the 7-8 Seed Trend and Make a Little History?

Historically, bettors who just want to pick a winner should back the No. 7 seed. Since the league introduced the current format in the 2020-21 season, No. 7 seeds have gone 8–2 outright but just 3-7 ATS in 10 7-8 play-in games.

Winning ATS is a nice moral victory for fans, and the payout from a winning bet is a solid consolation prize if the No. 8 seed, in this case Portland, is your team. History still gives your team a 50-50 chance of making the playoffs. No. 8 seeds are 2-2 in the No. 8 seed game.

But wouldn’t it be nice just to win right now?

Of course, and it is not hard to make a case for Portland to do just that. The Trail Blazers have been outstanding on defense down the stretch. They held opponents to a league-best 105.2 points per game in their last 10 games while scoring 118.1 points per game (12th-best). They also had the best defensive rating over the last 10 games: 104.6.

However, Phoenix is not going to roll over and let Portland move on. The Suns have been one of the best home defenses in the league, allowing 108.3 points per game at home (fifth-best).

My Pick: Suns -3 (-110)

Portland is a good team, and it would not be shocking to see it win this game. However, the Trail Blazers are also a young team that has struggled at times on the road. Portland will miss Jerami Grant if he can’t play; the injury report lists him as a game-time decision. Phoenix comes into this game as healthy as we’ve seen it be in some time. The Suns are more experienced and have arguably the best shooter on the floor in Devin Booker.

Both defenses will make their presence felt in this game. However, in the end, I like Booker and Dillon Brooks to create enough shots for the Suns to cover.

NBA Play-In Tournament Best Bets: Trail Blazers vs. Suns Player Props

• Devin Booker, OVER 26.5 Points at -114 (FanDuel)

Booker averaged 26.1 points per game this season. But he went over this mark in five of the last six games he played in and in 32 of 64 games this season. He will be rested and ready to go after getting a few extra days off towards the end of the regular season. As long as he takes his shots, and there is no reason to think he will not, I like him to go over this total.

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• Devin Booker, UNDER 5.5 Attempted 3-pointers at +110 (bet365)

The price is not fantastic, but there’s a good reason for that. Recent history has Booker attempting 6+plus 3-pointers in his last six games. But he attempted only two in his one game vs. Portland. Factor in the Trail Blazers holding teams to 31.9% from 3-point range over the last 10 games, and the plus money odds on the under become hard to pass up.

• Jrue Holiday, UNDER 2.5 Made 3-pointers at -130 (DraftKings)

Jrue Holiday averaged 2.6 per game this season, 3.0 per game in April (five games), and 3.1 in March (16 games). But of those 21 games, he finished under the mark in ten of 21 games. In the two games he played against the Suns, he went 0-for-4 and 1-for-5 from 3-point range.