The moment bettors have all been waiting for has finally arrived! Get your popcorn out for the Heat vs Hawks matchup tonight! One of these team's season will end tonight.
(Photo by Paras Griffin/Getty Images)
Tonight's NBA Play-In Tournament finale will feature the
Miami Heat
(37-45, 17-23 away) and the
Atlanta Hawks
(40-42, 21-19 home).
One-point favorites on the road, the Heat advance to the final round of the play-in after demolishing the Chicago Bulls, 109-90. Dominance isn't even the word. Miami held a 71-47 halftime lead and declared victory, thanks to Tyler Herro's 38 points.
With four players scoring in double-digits, the Heat's offense was firing on all cylinders. With pure authority on the boards, Miami won the paint and turnover battle by a mile. Erik Spoelstra placing Andrew Wiggins on Coby White was ingenious, given White finished 5-17 from the field.
The Hawks will get another go after a 120-95 blowout to the Orlando Magic. Although Trae Young led the helm with 28 points, the offense was abysmal, thanks to a stifling Magic defense.
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Odds Are Current As Of April 18 AT 10 A.M. ET
With the series split 2-2, who will advance to secure the No.8 seed in the Eastern Conference? Whoever advances will face the No. 1 Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round.
Up over five units betting on the NBA this month, playoff and play-in matchups can be challenging to bet on. That's why I preach responsible betting! The playoffs are full of twists and turns!
Tonight's matchup will tip-off at 7 p.m. ET. located at State Farm Arena. Set to air on TNT, truTV, and Max, let's have a night!
In this article are my three best bets and player prop picks for the Friday, April 18 Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament finale between the Heat and Hawks.
NBA Play-In Tournament Bets: Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks BetMGM Betting Odds For April 18
MONEYLINE
- MIAMI HEAT: -110
- ATLANTA HAWKS: -110
SPREAD
- MIAMI HEAT: -1.5 (+100)
- ATLANTA HAWKS: +1.5 (-120)
OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)
- OVER: 220.5 (-115)
- UNDER: 220.5 (-105)
Regular NBA Season H2H Matchups: Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks
- March 27, 2025: Heat 122, Hawks 112 (Miami -1.5, over 224.5)
- February 26, 2025: Heat 131, Hawks 109 (Miami -2.5, over 229.5)
- February 24, 2o25: Hawks 98, Heat 86 (Atlanta -2.5, under 233)
- December 28, 2024: Hawks 120, Heat 110 (Atlanta +1, over 227)
Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks Injury Report
HEAT
- Nikola Jokic, F: Questionable
- Pelle Larson, G: Questionable
- Kevin Love, F: Questionable
- Dru Smith, F: OUT
- Isaiah Stevens, G: OUT
HAWKS
- Kobe Bufkin, G: OUT
- Clint Capela, C: OUT
- Jalen Johnson, F: OUT
- Larry Nance Jr., F: OUT
- Trae Young, G: Questionable
*Odds are courtesy of BetMGM*
Player Prop Best Bet #1: Davion Mitchell
Davion Mitchell 2024-2025 Season Stats
PPG: 7.9 | FG: 46.8 % | FT: 69 % | 3PT :39.8 % | REB: 2.3 | AST: 4.9 | STL: 1.0 | BLK: 0.2
- Over 10.5 Points (+100 FanDuel)
One of my favorite and best bets for tonight, I'm taking Heat guard
Davion Mitchell
to record over 10.5 points for +100 odds vs the Hawks.
The Jimmy Butler era may be over in South Beach, however, a mid season trade acquiring Mitchell from the Raptors is looking quite brilliant right now.
Averaging career-highs since coming to South Beach, Mitchell has averaged 10.3 points in 30 games with the Heat.
- Not to mention the former Baylor Bear is shooting career-highs from the field (50.4 %), and 3-point range (44.7 %).
Although Mitchell is primarily known for his defensive prowess, don't let that overshadow the offense. Bettors could argue that Mitchell had one of the most complete games of his career against the Bulls. 15 points, 9.0 assists, and a pair of blocks and steals is enough to keep Mitchell in the rotation.
He may not live up to the standards of Tyler Herro or Andrew Wiggins, however, the books are sleeping on Mitchell, period.
Coming off 33 minutes against the Bulls, he's averaged 30+ minutes in two consecutive months.
- A solid bench rotation player for Spoelstra, over 10.5 points for plus is incredible value. The prop bet is available at 9.5 points, however I like the plus money value.
Surpassing Terry Rozier behind Tyler Herro for minutes, how is this player prop line so low? I know the Bulls struggle defensively, however, tonight is a prime matchup.
Are The Books Sleeping On Davion Mitchell?
The Hawks rank No. 18 in defensive rating (114.8), and we can see why.
- Giving up 120 to the Magic, Orlando shot nearly 50 percent from the field!
Not to mention, the Hawks allow over 23 points per game to point guards, and give up the most points in the NBA to shooting guards.
Aforementioned in previous articles, the Heat will face a team who owns the third highest pace in the NBA. With that, I expect increased scoring here. While some games have been blowouts, I expect this to be somewhat close.
I don't expect Mitchell to get lost in the rotation, and he's scored 11+ points in seven of the the last eight games.
- In fact, he's been sizzling, shooting 42.9 percent from deep on 12.2 points over the last 10 games.
Everything lines up for this prop to soar over tonight. Fourth in minutes (31.6), Mitchell's shot volume won't blow you away. Going 5-5 from the field last game, it's his shooting percentages that get me.
If Mitchell is locked in for 30+ minutes, he's scored 11+ points in 13/14 games when recording such minutes.
In five regular season head-to-head matchups, Mitchell averaged 10.4 points, 30.8 minutes, and shot 54.1 percent from the field, and 58.8 percent from deep! He's been flawless, and that's stats with two teams.
- Eclipsing 11+ points in two of three games against Atlanta with Miami, Mitchell recorded 36 and 37 in the last two!
Final NBA Play-In Tournament Best Bet Pick and Prediction: Davion Mitchell Over 10.5 Points (+100 FanDuel)
Mitchell is a polished scorer in addition to a defensive juggernaut. We saw how well he executed in the first play-in game against Chicago. Now, he faces a Hawks team, that allowed the third points most in the NBA (119.3).
- Give me Davion Mitchell to record over 10.5 points tonight.
Player Prop Best Bet #2: Tyler Herro
Tyler Herro 2024-2025 Season Stats
PPG: 23.9 | FG: 47.2 % | FT: 87.8 % | 3PT : 37.5 % | REB: 5.2 | AST: 5.5 | STL: 0.9 | BLK: 0.2
- Over 25.5 Points (-112 FanDuel)
- Over 2.5 Made Threes (-136 FanDuel)
My second best bet for tonight, I placed one unit on Heat star
Tyler Herro
to record over 25.5 points, and to drain over 2.5 made threes.
I know this is a corporate pick. However, this is win or go home scenario for the Heat and Hawks. Post Jimmy Butler era, Herro has emerged as the Heat's star and leading scorer. I'm not fading him in this position.
Herro has been one of the most consistent, volume shooters in the NBA, and the 3-point contest winner is certainly in talks for the Most Improved Player Award.
When it mattered most, Herro lit up the Bulls for 38 points and shot 3-7 (42.9 %) from deep in the first round. Not to mention, Herro was primarily responsible for the Heat's 71-47 halftime lead, with 23 points.
- Sinking his first eight buckets, Herro is the real deal.
Is Playoff "Tyler" About To Be The New Vibe In South Beach?
What a better matchup tonight than watching Tyler Herro vs Trae Young? We all know the Hawks don't give up a ton of points to guards (23.5), however, is playoff Tyler about to become a thing!?
In four head-to-head matchups with the Hawks, Herro averaged 24.8 points, shooting 47.8 percent from the field, and 40 percent from deep.
- Playing a solid 35.8 minutes through all four, Herro soared over 25.5 points in two of them.
Over their last outing, Herro erupted for 36 points. In fact, shooting 20-33 (60.6 %) vs the Hawks in their last two matchups, he's 8-14 (57.1 %) from beyond the arc.
There's undoubtedly a tremendous amount of talent around Herro. However, he's the Heat's leading scorer and playing minutes for a reason. Leading the team with 17.9 field goal attempts, there's no question if the minutes and shot volume will be there tonight.
- His 8.7 3-point attempts ranks among the top 20 in the NBA.
Final NBA Play-In Tournament Best Bet Pick and Prediction: Tyler Herro Over 25.5 Points (-112 FanDuel) + Over 2.5 Made Threes (-136 FanDuel)
Herro's been sensational, averaging 28.1 points on 43.8 three-point shooting over the last 10 games. Expect Herro to play near 40 minutes tonight, with their season on the line.
- I'm taking Tyler Herro to record over 25.5 points tonight and over 2.5 made threes. Hot as of late, he's soared over this player prop line in five of the last eight games and recorded 3+ threes in all but one matchup against Atlanta this year.
Best Totals Bet: Heat vs Hawks
- Miami Heat Team Total Over 109.5 Points (-118 FanDuel)
My third best bet for tonight, I placed one unit on the Miami Heat to score over 109.5 points vs the Hawks.
The Hawks play the third highest pace in the NBA, so either the Heat will live to that or keep at their own pace.
- Known more for their defense, the Heat ranked No. 13 in offensive rating, averaging the seventh least points in the NBA (110.6 PPG).
We saw the Magic pour 120 on the Hawks, and they averaged a mere 105.4 points per game. Allowing the fourth most points in the NBA (119.4 PPG), the Hawks carry a weakness on defense. No. 19 in defensive rating, I don't see this being a defensive showdown for Atlanta tonight.
If you didn't know, the Heat have been one of the most pristine teams on the offensive end, ranking No. 4 in offensive rating (121) over the last 10 games. The offense is humming, in large part to Tyler Herro.
Not to mention, this is a Heat team that's averaged 126.5 points over the last two outings against Atlanta. Favored in both matchups, the Heat shot well over 50 percent from the field and three in BOTH games!
If that doesn't reveal this matchup, I don't know what does.
- Soaring over 109.5 points in the last 8/10 games, Miami has totaled 110 points in six of the last ten games.
Although on the road, the Heat still averaged 109.3 points in games away from South Beach. They are by far averaging the most points per game in April with 120.9 PPG.
Final NBA Play-In Tournament Best Bet Pick and Prediction: Miami Heat Over 109.5 Total Points (-118 FanDuel)
Miami has vastly improved as a team, including increased field goal (48.5 %) and 3-point shooting percentages (38.2 %). Since Post All-Star, the Heat have increased their scoring average to 112 points per game.
Mainly healthy, the Heat have depth in Wiggins and Abebayo behind Herro. Don't forget Duncan Robinson, Davion Mitchell, and Haywood Highsmith off the bench!
- I'm riding with the Miami Heat to score over 109.5 points tonight.
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