NBA Player Props for Tonight (March 4 ): Warriors vs Knicks Betting Odds and Best Bets

The NBA is back, and there's a long-awaited primetime matchup between the Golden State Warriors (33-28, 16-15 away)  and the New York Knicks (40-20, 21-10 home).

 (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)

Set to face each other for the first time this season, Steph Curry and company will get a chance to shine in the Big Apple. Speaking of Curry, he tweaked his ankle last night against the Charlotte Hornets. Questionable to lace up on a second leg of a back-to-back, I veered away from Curry player props.

8-2 in the Jimmy Butler era, the Warriors have moved up the the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference. Just a half game above the Clippers for the play-in-tournament, every matchup is high stakes for Golden State Moving forward. 6-1 in their last seven outings, the Warriors are coming off a 119-101 blowout victory against the Hornets on Monday. With Curry and Buddy Hield leading the way for a combined 43 points, they get a tough test tonight.

The Knicks are coming off a gutsy 116-112 over the Miami Heat, which keeps them 2.5 game back of the Boston Celtics for the No.3. seed in the Eastern Conference. With three straight victories, the Knicks have pulled off three straight wins against the Heat, Grizzlies, and 76ers. Now with Mitchell Robinson back in the lineup on limited minutes, New York will need Karl-Anthony Towns to suit up tonight.

Odds Are Current As Of March 4 AT 10 A.M. ET

What's better than a showdown between Steph Curry and Jalen Brunson at Madison Square Garden? The Mecca of Basketball, this should be a good one.

Set to air on TNT, the Warriors and Knicks will tip-off at 7:30 p.m. ET. -4.5 point spread favorites at home, the Knicks will look to continue their hot streak!

With a fun night ahead, let's take a look a my best bets and picks for the Warriors vs Knicks game tonight! Keeping my bankroll management in mind, I always preach responsible betting. Here are my top three player prop bets for Tuesday, March 4.

NBA Bets: Golden State Warriors vs New York Knicks FanDuel Betting Odds For March 4

MONEYLINE

• GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS: +152
• NEW YORK KNICKS: -180

SPREAD

• GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS: -4.5 (-110)
• NEW YORK KNICKS: +4.5 (-110)

OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)

• OVER: 228.5 (-108)
• UNDER: 228.6 (-112)

Last Five H2H Matchups: Golden State Warriors vs New York Knicks

• March 18, 2024: Knicks 119, Warriors 112 (New York +6.5, over 213.5)
• February 29, 2024: Warriors 110, Knicks 99 (Golden State -3.5, under 223)
• December 20, 2022: Knicks 132, Warriors 94 (New York -6, over 224)
• November 18, 2022: Warriors 111, Knicks 101 (Golden State -7, under 234)
• February 10, 2022: Knicks 116, Warriors 114 (New York +9, over 217.5)

Golden State Warriors vs New York Knicks Injury Report

WARRIORS

1. Stephen Curry, PG: Questionable (Ankle)
2. Jonathan Kuminga, PF: OUT (Ankle)
3. Gary Payton II, SG: Questionable (Nose)

KNICKS

1. Ariel Hukporti, C: OUT (Knee)
2. Karl-Anthony Towns, C: Questionable (Personal)

Player Prop Best Bet #1: Jimmy Butler III

Jimmy Butler III 2024-2025 Season Stats

PPG: 16.8 | FG: 51.1 % | FT: 82.4 % | 3PT : 28.3 % | REB: 5.3 | AST: 5.0 | STL: 1.1 | BLK: 0.4

• Over 17.5 Points (-112 FanDuel)

One of my top player prop best bets tonight, I placed one unit on Warriors star Jimmy Butler III to record over 17.5 points tonight vs the Knicks for -112 odds on FanDuel.

You may be wondering why I'm picking Butler III, who's scored 25 points over the last three games. Sometimes the boxscore doesn't reveal the entire situation, and that's the case with Butler.

Over the last five games, the Warriors have been crushing teams. When I say that, Butler only scored 13 points in their 119-101 victory over the Hornets. 3-7 from the field, Butler played logged less than six minutes in the fourth quarter. Playing 31 minutes, it was the Warriors bench that took over for 45 points.

Soaring under his player prop line in six straight games, it's easy to see why bettors may have frustrations betting on Butler III. Just this week, Butler's points prop line was set to 18.5 and 19.5 points. Notching five points vs the Magic, Butler shot just 1-7 and 0-3 from the field. Let's not look too far into this one, Steph Curry had a career day with a season high 56 points on 16-25 shooting.

• That's the gamble when you play alongside Steph Curry, right?

Why Jimmy Butler III Can Soar Over This Player Prop Tonight vs The Knicks

The night prior, Butler finished with a mere six points on 3-8 shooting. No matter how you slice it, the Warriors defeated the Hornets 128-92. Forcing Charlotte to commit 24 turnovers, 13 players scored for Steve Kerr and the Warriors. In fact, all 15 players saw action. With the bench providing 69 points, it's clear that Kerr hasn't utilized Butler III in blowout situations.

Aside form the last three games Butler III has cleared over 17.5 points in 5/9 games as a member of the Warriors. In tough matchups against the Bucks, Maverick, and Rockets, Jimmy scored 19+ throughout each of those.

• Since Golden State acquired the star, Butler is averaging 16.4 in in nine games. Because of recent events, I do believe that number is slightly skewed.

Will Jimmy Butler III Step Up If Stephen Curry Sits Out?

If Steph Curry is unable to lace up tonight, it's go time for Jimmy Butler. Although only averaging 30.1 minutes with Golden State, we've seen him log 35 in back-to-back tight matchups with Milwaukee and Houston. In the first five games with Golden State, Butler was averaged 21.2 points per game, on 32.5 minutes and 12.2 shot attempts.

With that, I know the Warriors have the deepest bench in the NBA. And yes, Butler shot just 7.1 % from deep in his first month the Warriors. Although not a massive threat beyond the three-point line, the Warriors will need Butler to step up in a high stakes game vs the Knicks tonight.

Even if Curry is able to play, Kerr will continue to draw up a smaller guard lineup that will most likely put Butler III at power forward. Although basketball today has become somewhat position less, New York is giving up the 8th most points to forwards. With that, forwards are averaging just over 22 points against the Knicks.

One of the worst in guarding the perimeter, the Knicks have regressed quite a bit this season, and that's with OG Anunoby in the lineup. 18th in defensive rating, Butler should feast.

Speaking of matchup, we know Butler scored 15 points on 6-9 shooting agains the Knicks with the Heat earlier this season. While Butler played a different role with Miami, we saw Tyler Herro erupt for 34 points.

• Dating back to his last 16 head-to-head matchups with the Knicks, Jimmy Butler has scored over 17.5 points in 12 of them.

Final NBA Best Bet Pick and Prediction: Jimmy Butler Over 17.5 Points (-112 FanDuel)

With Kuminga out of the lineup, Butler remains the No. 2 scoring option behind Curry. With 10.8 field goal attempts per game, I expect that to increase, especially in the potential absence of Curry. Leading all Warriors with 7.3 free-throw attempts, he will face a Knicks team that allows the fourth fewest trips to the charity stripe per game (19.2).

Over the last week, bettors saw Jayson Tatum (25), Kelly Oubre (27), and Jaren Jackson Jr. (18) all cook up against New York.

• Even with the recent frustrations, I'm betting on Jimmy Butler to bounce back tonight for 18+ points. 

Player Prop Best Bet #2: Jalen Brunson

Jalen Brunson 2024-2025 Season Stats

PPG: 26.1 | FG: 49 % | FT: 82.2 % | 3PT : 39.3 % | REB: 3.0 | AST: 7.4 | STL: 1.0 | BLK: 0.1

• Over 26.5 Points (-115 DraftKings)

Another top player prop best bet tonight, I placed one unit on Knicks star Jalen Brunson to score over 26.5 points vs the Warriors for -115 odds on DraftKings.

Even though his scoring total is down a tad from last year, Brunson ranks No. 8 in the NBA in points per game (26.1). With that, Brunson is the guy for the Knicks. Talk about definition of grit and toughness. Brunson is Mr. Clutch in the Big Apple.

Coming off 31 points in the Knicks 116-112 overtime victory over the Heat, it was Brunson who helped the Knicks overcome a massive deficit. Down in the fourth quarter, the Knicks can thank Anunoby and Brunson for the late game efforts. With that, Brunson's three-point shot put the Heat away for good in overtime.

Lately, we've seen Brunson log some hefty minutes for Tom Thibodeau, specifically 38 over the last four games. Scoring 30+ points in two of the last three games, Brunson's line may be a bit high tonight. And with that, the Warriors won't be an easy task. Now with the addition of Jimmy Butler III, the Warriors rank No. 8 in defensive rating.

Why Jalen Brunson  Can Soar Over This Player Prop vs The Warriors Tonight

Considering the Warriors give up just over 23 points a game to point guards, Brunson may catch a break if Curry sits this one out.

Speaking of injuries, it's unclear if Karl-Anthony Towns will lace up tonight. If not, Brunson will get a chance to feast, especially since he's averaging 26.3 points over the last six games. Throughout that span, Brunson is shooting a respectable 47.8 % from the floor, and 39.5 % from deep.

Overall, Brunson's been hot, putting up 26.6 points on 49.2 field goal shooting % over the last 10 games. Now he gets a Warriors team in which he notched 34 points against last March. While the Knicks had a vastly different roster, Brunson led all Knicks with 13-25 from the field, 3-9 from deep, and 7-8 from the free-throw line.

Speaking of hot, he's been one of the best post NBA All-Star break. Averaging 25.4 points, Brunson is racking up 4.0 rebounds and 6.6 assists since the break.

• Now coming off a day of rest, Brunson has 30+ points in three of the last five matchups with a day of rest.

Final NBA Best Bet Pick and Prediction: Jalen Brunson Over 26.5 Points (-115 DraftKings)

Given Brunson has an incredibly high usage rate (29.5 %), I'm expecting the Knicks star to be heavily utilized in a primetime matchup vs the Warriors. It's not too often these two teams meet, and stakes will remain high. Playing 38 minutes over the last three games, Brunson has averaged 30.5 points over the last two meeting with the Warriors.

• Averaging just over 27 points per game since January, Brunson has become the most consistent and clutch scorer for the Knicks. One of my top NBA player prop and best bets, I'm taking Jalen Brunson to score over 26.5 points tonight. 

Player Prop Best Bet #3: Draymond Green

Draymond Green 2024-2025 Season Stats

PPG: 9.1 | FG: 42.7 % | FT: 66.0 % | 3PT : 32.9 % | REB: 6.1 | AST: 5.7 | STL: 1.3 | BLK: 1.0

• Over 5.5 Assists (-136 FanDuel)

One of my favorite NBA plays tonight, I placed one unit on Draymond Green to record over 5.5 assists vs the Knicks for -136 odds.

Averaging 5.7 assists on the year, Green has always been an extremely underrated playmaker in the NBA. With that said, he's coming off seven dimes against the Hornets, and recording 15 assists over the last two games.

Green may not be a big viable scoring option threat, however, he's been sizzling over the last 10 games. Averaging 6.5 assists, Draymond is averaging 7.5 dimes alone in March.

Recording 6+ assists in four of the last five games, Green is averaging 6.2 assists over that span. What makes this one of my best bets is that Green has recorded 6+ assists in five of the last seven matchups, and seven of ten overall. That's a fairly respectable rate for a low line of 5.5 assists tonight.

If Curry is unable to lace up tonight, this may or may not affect Green's assist player prop. Recording 6+ assists in three of the last five games without Curry, Green last totaled six without Curry against the Knicks.

• The next player up to benefit from Draymond Green assists would be Buddy Hield, who averages 2.3 field goal attempts off Draymond assists.

Final NBA Best Bet Pick and Prediction: Draymond Green Over 5.5 Assists (-136 FanDuel)

Given Curry makes 32.5 % of shots from Green, his absence would shake things up. However, the Warriors have the deepest bench in the NBA. With that, I'm a firm believe this prop line will increase as the day goes on. Come on, we are talking about a player who has a 26.9 % assist rate.

Even coming off a back-to-back, Green last tallied 8 dimes vs the Rockets on zero days rest. Now he has a away matchup, where he's soared over this line (7+ assists) in four of the last five games on the road. Over that span, Green is averaging 7.2 assists per game. There's a reason why the Warriors rank No. 4 in assists per game (29.1). Now Green faces a Knicks squad that allows 26 dimes per game.

• Tallying 6+ assists on four of the last five matchups against the Knicks, give me Draymond Green to record over 5.5 assists as one of my best NBA player prop bets tonight.