NBA Player Props Tonight for Clippers vs Nuggets: Nikola Jokic Heads +480 SGP (Dec 13)

The Denver Nuggets found a much-needed win over the Atlanta Hawks back on Sunday, and after a much-needed five-day rest will attempt to conquer the LA Clippers for the first time in three meetings this season.

(Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)

Nikola Jokic is coming off back-to-back games with 48 or more points, and has hit 41 in this season series once already, but is his points total really the best way to capitalize on his form?

Let's build a same-game parlay for Clippers vs Nuggets on Friday, December 13 and lay out a few props that will work well as standalone straight bets as well.

NBA Parlay Predictions for Clippers vs Nuggets

DraftKings NBA Odds for Clippers vs Nuggets SGP: +480

• Nikola Jokic Over 31.5 Points
• James Harden 9+ Assists
• Michael Porter, Jr. Over 17.5 Points

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Nikola Jokic Over 31.5 Points

The short answer is yes, betting on Nikola Jokic to score is the best way to kick off this parlay. The market has surely caught up to the big man by now with a heavy total of 31.5, but coming off a 56-point showing against the Wizards and a 48 against the Hawks, I think there's plenty to believe in here given the matchup.

• The Clippers sit just 26th in rim defense this season, allowing 68.9% of shots to fall in and around the restricted area, and in the last two weeks they've been the third-worst team in the zone with an opposing field goal percentage of 74.3%.

Jokic has already exploited this frontcourt for 41 points early in the season, and followed that up with a 28-point night against LA to begin the month.

The recent trends are certainly worth reading into, however, and legitimize the increased scoring output from Jokic.

• He leads the team with a 30.8% Usage Rate on the year, but over the last 14 days that's ballooned to 36.6% as the team leans even more on their centerpiece amidst some shooting slumps and injuries.

There should be little in Jokic's way of scoring inside, and considering the Clippers have taken out the Nuggets in both meetings this season I'm expecting a close game. That means the ball should be in Jokic's hands for the duration, and I trust him with this kind of form to keep on making life difficult for LA inside.

James Harden 9+ Assists

James Harden exploded for 16 assists against the Nuggets in just his second game of the season, and instantly it seemed as if the tone had been set for the year. He began the year averaging a double-double through two weeks, but his assist totals quickly dissipated -- making that evening out to be an outlier.

• It just so happens that the Nuggets present a uniquely-beneficial spot for Harden as a play-maker, giving up the second-most assists per 100 possessions in the NBA and failing to cover shots in the short mid-range, which helps Harden rack up assists on the pick-and-roll.

This is a play the Nuggets haven't found a solution for in both meetings this season, and Harden followed that 16-assist performance up with 11 the next go around against Denver.

• Harden, like Jokic, has been enjoying a hefty Usage Rate and up until a 24-minute outing against the Timberwolves, where he was hampered by injury, he'd gone for an average of 8.9 assists in a seven-game span.

The veteran has regained some of his early-season form in the play-making department as his shooting has tailed off a bit, and now he'll step into arguably the friendliest matchup he could ask for in terms of racking up helpers.

Michael Porter, Jr. Over 17.5 Points

Michael Porter, Jr. has taken a noticeable leap forward this season, averaging a career-best 19 points per game despite little change in his Usage Rate. He's played roughly four more minutes per game, taking around one more shot per game and taking a slight step back in terms of his shooting frequency from outside.

That's with good reason, as Porter has discovered a newfound love for scoring in the mid-range. He's brought his shot frequency in the zone up three percentage points, and he's hitting at 48% which makes this dreaded inefficient zone surprisingly efficient for the sharpshooter.

• The Clippers have done a good job at defending the mid-range this season, but do sit near the top of the league in terms of allowing looks from the long mid-range.
• In the last two weeks, this has come back to bite them as they've ranked just 22nd against mid-range shots and have taken a decided step back on defense.

I do think Jokic should continue to do the heavy lifting for this offense, but it's hard to ignore how important Porter's been for this offense as a whole. He's eclipsed this number in all but one of his last eight games, including a matchup with the Clippers, averaging more than 20 points over that stretch.

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