
The NBA is back, and there are five games on the NBA slate! Although not the most exciting matchups, I've found the best plays.
(Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
For the early matchup, there's an across-town matchup in the Big Apple between the New York Knicks (28-16) and the Brooklyn Nets (14-29). While a primetime TNT matchup between the Philadelphia 76ers (16-26) and Denver Nuggets (26-16) is set, the 76ers have several players on the injury report.
Let's take a look at the DraftKings odds for the January 21 NBA slate today!
With the NBA at the forefront, I've provided my three best player prop bets for today. Up over 6 units, I have an NBA betting record of 19-12 in the month of January. If you're tailing my best bets and props today, I've split my wagers up between DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook.
Are you looking to bet on NBA player props all season long? Here at Ballislife Bets, we've gathered a complete list of the best sports betting offers here.
G: 36 | PPG: 20.1 | FG: 45.4 % | FT: 86.2 % | 3PT : 38.2 % | REB: 3.9 | AST: 6.0 | STL: 1.5| BLK: 0.6
My first best bet for today, I placed one unit on Nuggets guard Jamal Murray to record over 25.5 points and assists vs the Philadelphia 76ers.
Is there any player hotter than Murray right now? A max player, the first half of the season was quite tumultuous for the Nuggets star. With Denver back on a winning track, so is Murray. For a while the dynamic was Russell Westbrook and Nikola Jokic. Murray is so back!
Bettors witnessed Murray's incredible season-high 45 points vs the Dallas Mavericks last Tuesday. Shooting an astonishing 69.2 percent from the field, 32 of them came in the first half alone.
Since then, Murray hasn't shot below the 50 percent mark, and has averaged a solid 35.5 minutes per game for head coach Mike Malone. Although dealing with a calf issue following knee inflammation, I still love Murray to continue to streak.
And I'm simply taking from a points perspective. Coming off 19 points vs the Magic, Murray is averaging 20.7 points and 5.4 assists over the last ten games. More impressive, the guard is shooting 42.6 percent from deep, and 49.1 percent from the field. We can't forget Murray's large second half is what propelled the Nuggets vs the Magic.
Specifically, the Nuggets star is putting up an average of 29 points and 5.8 assists over the last four games vs the Mavericks, Rockets, Heat, and Magic. I love this prop alone given Murray is shooting at a high clip beyond the arc in that time span (48.3 %).
Someway, somehow, the three guard combination of Christian Braun, Murray, and Russell Westbrook has worked wonders for the Nuggets. One thing to know about Murray- when he gets hot he gets hot. Playing with both the first and second units, Murray is undoubtedly playing incredible minutes. He's starting to become a reliable, more consistent player, which is what makes this player prop a strong play.
When I speak consistency, I think scoring and facilitating. While Murray isn't going to light it up with Trae Young like assists, Murray is reliable for a solid 20+ points and 5+ assists per game. Overall, there's a many mouths to feed on this Nuggets team. Especially with the two man game between Nikola Jokic and Murray.
Let's break down tonight's matchup. Injury riddled, the 76es are already without Joel Embiid, Kyle Lowry, Caleb Martin, and KJ Martin. Now Paul George is listed as questionable with a groin injury. While this may signal a blowout, I still would expect Murray to eat.
This year is a forgettable one for the 76ers. 21st in defensive rating, Philadelphia allows opponents to shoot 48.4 percent from the floor. Second worst behind the Nets, the 76ers aren't great in shutting down passing lanes. With opposing teams averaging 26.8 dimes, I believe Murray is good for 5+ tonight.
Although their first matchup vs the 76ers this season, Murray has soared over 6+ assists in the last four matchups. Although this Philadelphia team is vastly different, Murray has easily cleared over 25.5 points and assists over that span.
If you're tailing my NBA player props, Murray get's a prime matchup at home. Averaging 19.4 points and 5.9 assists at Ball Arena, we've seen multiple guards cook the 76ers. Over the last week, Damian Lillard (29), Jalen Brunson (42), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (41), Cole Anthony (31), and CJ McCollum (41) all recorded well over 25.5 points and assists.
G: 40 | PPG: 15.7 | FG: 45.4 % | FT: 72.1 % | 3PT : 27.7 % | REB: 9.7 | AST: 4.6 | STL: 1.5 | BLK: 0.8
My second best NBA player prop for today, I placed one unit on Heat center Bam Adebayo to record a double-double vs the Trail Blazers.
4-6 in their last 10 games, the Heat have been one of the most talked about teams amid the Jimmy Butler saga. With that, Adebayo's performance has taken a large hit.
Averaging 15.7 points per game, thats' Bam's lowest point scoring average since the 2019-2020 season. With that, the big man's field goal percentage has dipped to 45.4 %. Still very much a formidable force on the boards, I like the chances for a double-double for plus money. Here's why.
No.11 with 21 double-doubles in the NBA, Adebayo is averaging 11.5 rebounds per 40 minutes. Although usage is down a tad, there's no doubt Nikola Jovic has carved himself in Erik Spoelstra's rotation.
Overall, Adebayo isn't going to wow bettors with 25+ points every night, and we can forget his six point, 11 rebound performance vs San Antonio on Sunday. We can look at the statistics, where Adebayo is having his worst month production wise since October.
Even with a decrease in stats, the center is averaging 14.4 points and nine rebounds this month. With 10+ points in all but two games in January, no. 13 is coming off back-t0-back 11 rebound games.
Today, the Heat get a matchup with the Trail Blazers at home, who give up the 14th most points to centers. There's no doubt Portland has some size with Jerami Grant, Deni Avdija, and Deandre Ayton. However, center's Donovan Clingan and Robert Williams III are listed as out and or questionable.
Since the Trail Blazers are thin in depth and allow the 8th most rebounds per game (44.9), Adebayo should feast today. In one lone game vs Portland last Saturday, Adebayo recorded a double-double for 13 points and 11 rebounds.
Outscoring the Trail Blazers by 21 points, we have to take into account Jimmy Butler was not active for this game. Allowing 48.3 points in the paint, Portland allows the 8th most second chance points per game (14.6). While Bam isn't exactly known for his outside shooting, he should have a solid interior presence tonight.
In a nutshell, bettors saw Nikola Vucevic and Alperin Sengun destroy Portland with back-to-back 11 and 15 rebound games. Even in a blowout victory vs Portland last week, Adebayo still managed to log 30 minutes.
Even in a scoring slump, I can't ignore plus money here. One of the worst teams at 14-28, Portland struggles greatly against centers.
G: 37 | PPG: 9.6 | FG: 44.5 % | FT: 72.9 % | 3PT : 32.5 % | REB: 4.8 | AST: 2.7 | STL: 1.3| BLK: 0.2
My last player prop bet for today, I placed one unit on Heat forward Jaime Jaquez Jr. to record over 8.5 points vs the Portland Trail Blazers.
I apologize, I am not a Heat homer here. However, I see this line is a bit low, and has some great value for -105 odds on DraftKings.
The most talked about team in the NBA, there's no doubt Jaquez's numbers are impacted by Jimmy Butler's return to the starting lineup.
Averaging just over 14 points during Butler's seven game suspension, is the former UCLA star ready to take over if Butler does depart? With a fairly consistent January, the former Bruin has tallied 10+ points in all but two games this month.
Notching a season-high 20 points vs Utah, we saw Jaquez's ability to remain clutch and persistent from three-point range. With Jimmy Butler or not, the forward is consistently soaring over 8.5 points. I'm not sure if the books are sleeping, but here are the stats.
Not only has Jaquez Jr. tallied 8.5 + points in nine straight games, he averaged exactly 10 points over that span. When we enter Butler back into the equation, the forward has notched over 8.5 points in five of the last six games.
This is why the Heat draft so well. Although known for a ferocious defender, Jaquez Jr. has such a unique skill set. Now he get's another prime matchup with Portland.
Overall, this prop is going to come down to free-throws and three-point shots. Although Jaquez Jr.'s shot volume has dramatically decreased, 7-8 shots per game should be good for +8.5 points. Given he's shooting 62.5 % beyond the arc over the last four games, Portland allows the third highest three-point percentage in the NBA (37.8 %).
Although Jaquez will continue to come off the bench, he's averaged 23 minutes in rotation in two games with Butler back in the lineup. If this is another blow out, I expect Spoelstra to reward the forward with some extra playing time.
In 19 games of recording 22 minutes or more, Jaquez has soared over 8.5 points in 17/19 games.
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