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NBA Cup games are back, and we have a full slate of matchups tonight! With the Cavaliers and Celtics scheduled for primetime on TNT, the Spurs will host the Thunder at home tonight. With weeks to go in the Cup in-season tournament, every game counts, including point differential.
Up nearly five units in November, I will provide my three best player prop bets for tonight in this article. With several high-profile matchups, I chose a combination of value picks. If you're tailing my prop bets tonight, I've placed all of them within FanDuel Sportsbook as straight plays. But first, let's take a look at the FanDuel NBA slate for Tuesday, November 19:
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Jrue Holiday 2024-2025 Season Stats
G: 13 | PPG: 12.8 | FG: 65.9 % | FT: 48.4 % | 3PT : 36.4 % | REB: 3.9 | AST: 4.0 | STL: 0.5 | BLK: 0.2
My first prop bet on the night, I placed one unit on Celtics guard Jrue Holiday to record 4+ assists vs the Cavaliers tonight. In a highly anticipated NBA Cup matchup, Holiday may be headed for more playing time if Payton Pritchard is unable to suit up. Even so, this prop line is right on the money. Although slightly juice, I love the pick, and here's why.
While it seems the obvious play, four assists doesn't seem impossible for Holiday, who's soared over this line in the last three matchups. Although the Celtics are winners of two straight, they've been a little unserious. Time to buckle up in one of the most important matchups of the regular season, look for Holiday to direct traffic tonight.
If you look at that trajectory, Holiday has dished out well over four assists when games are close. For example, he recorded seven dimes in the 117-116 loss vs the Hawks. Last week against the Nets and Warriors, Holiday totaled five and eight assists. While the beginning of the season was rough in terms of facilitating, that's been the current trend.
I do expect to Celtics to step on the gas tonight, and with that said, I love his points prop. Loving the assist line more, the Cavaliers allow 25.3 dimes per game. With an 18.6 % assist rate on the season, Holiday should see a good amount of playing time. In fact, averaging 32.8 minutes over the last five matchups, Holiday soared over this prop in that time frame. In games vs the Pistons, Hornets, and Nets, Holiday soared over his assist prop, where he record 33+ minutes.
There's no doubt tonight's prop line is contingent on how well the Celtics shoot the ball. Will we see great Celtics basketball with fluid ball movement, or will be so more iso ball? With a fairly clean bill of health, Holiday should have plenty of options. However, while they haven't been far productive over the last five games, Boston scoring percentages could be more efficient.
Making to most passes to Derrick White (8.6), Jayson Tatum (7.8), and Jaylen Brown (5.1), Tatum will to shoot more efficient than 7-19 from the field. With Pritchard hitting a team high 58.3 % of his shots assisted from Holiday, his possible absence could cause more harm than good.
With 14 assists in the last three games, Holiday is coming off a four assist night, which was a 139-114 blowout victory over Brooklyn. If we analyze how opponents have performed against Cleveland, they've been fairly forgiving against guards. Since the beginning of the month we've seen:
all soar over their assist prop lines. Although Holiday is a unique type of point guard, this list includes role and bench players. That in itself makes this a strong prop play. With the Celtics averaging 24.5 dimes per game, bet OVER on Holiday assists. Back in the lineup after sitting out Saturday with knee tendinopathy, Holiday should have plenty of rest.
LaMelo Ball 2024-2025 Season Stats
G: 13 | PPG: 29.7 | FG: 43.5 % | FT: 88.2 % | 3PT : 36.1 % | REB: 5.0 | AST: 6.7 | STL: 1.2 | BLK: 0.2
My second prop bet of tonight is unique. I placed one unit each of Hornets star guard LaMelo Ball to score over 27.5 and finish as the top scorer for +110 odds. The leading scorer for the Hornets, Ball is averaging career-highs in multiple categories. Through 15 games, the former Chino Hills star is putting up 29.7 points, 5.0 rebounds, 6.7 assists, and 1.2 steals on the year. With increased field goal attempts and minutes, his recent performance has been stellar.
Playing heavy minutes for new coach Charles Lee, we've seen Ball average 35-41 minutes over the past month. Although there's young talent around Ball, he's been the clear cut number one scoring option. Coming off 29 field goal attempts, we recently saw Ball pour in 31 points vs Cleveland. While that's not an easy task, four of those came from the charity stripe. Initially listed as questionable, Ball has now record 31 and 29 points in back-to-back games.
Overall, Balls field goal percentage hasn't been stellar, averaging 43.3 % from the field this month. However, playing nearly 34 minutes in November, Ball is averaging 24.8 shot attempts. So tell me, how does this prop line of 27.5 points have -108 odds. Especially vs the Nets, who allow 114.6 points per game? Allowing the 22nd most points to guards, the Nets have a tough roster with Cam Thomas and Dennis Schröder in the back court. However, we've seen Ball plow through teams repeatedly.
The real heavy hitter on this Hornets roster, Ball has scored under the 27.5 prop line just three of eight games played this month. Soaring over in four of the last five matchups, this line is a tad low. Scoring 31, 26, 35, 38, and 31, LaMelo is averaging 30.2 points over that span, and over 30 points in November.
Above or sub .500 teams, LaMelo is a straight baller. With 36 and 31 points against a stingy Celtics defense, we saw Ball light it up for 35 points against a dynamic Magic defensive squad. One of the best two-way guards in the NBA, it feels sometimes Ball is playings in the G-league. While scoring looks way too easy for the guard, he was the no. 1 overall pick for a reason.
Given the Nets rank 26th in defensive rating, it's been hard to stop guards. Most recently:
all hit over their player points props. With high IQ, speed, and quickness, LaMelo Ball has the traits to drive to the basket or hit from deep. Either way, he should have no problem cooking up in a NBA Cup game vs Brooklyn. Both 0-1 in the tournament standings, it will be a battle.
With this prop, I added a twist to it. Because I love the matchup, I also added Ball to finish as the top-scorer tonight at +110 odds. Leading both teams with 29.7 points, Cam Johnson leads the Nets with 24.6 PPG. While Johnson has been spotty over the last week, expect Ball to stay hot! The top-scoring in all but five games this season, Ball's been the top player on offense in four straight games now. While you can parlay these two together, I took them both as separate bets.
Neither one of these teams plays a lick of defense. I expect a ton of scoring tonight in a competitive Cup matchup.
Harrison Barnes 2024-2025 Season Stats
G: 14 | PPG: 9.2 | FG: 48.4 % | FT: 83.3 % | 3PT : 38.1 % | REB: 3.9 | AST: 1.5 | STL: 0.3 | BLK: 0.2
My third player prop of tonight, I placed one unit on Spurs forward Harrison Barnes to record over 4.5 rebounds tonight vs the Thunder for +112 odds on FanDuel. For plus money, Barnes has a prime matchup with the Thunder, who often like to play small ball. With big man Chet Holmgren out with injury, the Thunder remain the 7th worst rebounding team in the NBA (41.9). On the defensive end, they allow the most boards of any team, with 50.2 per game.
Normally I wouldn't touch Barnes with it comes to rebounds. However, I truly didn't like Zach Collins prop line. Averaging 3.9 rebounds per game, Barnes will lead the front court with Collins since Victor Wembanyama won't suit up. With Aaron Wiggins at the four, and Jalen Williams at the five, both players are listed as 6'6 and under for OKC.
Strictly a matchup situational player prop, Barnes has quite a bit of size at 6'8. While clearing the over in four of the last six games, it's a no brainer tonight. In his first year, Barnes has yet to soar over 4.5 boards without Wemby. However, with OKC allowing the 28th most rebounds to forwards, we saw P.J. Washington Jr. absolutely dominate with 17 rebounds last outing.
While the matchup looks bright, we've seen the following players total over the rebound prop lines:
Given that stat line, the Spurs are just outside the top-10 in rebounding for a reason. Also Wemby will be missed, I like the OVER on Harrison Barnes rebounds. With a career-average 4.6 rebounds in 39 games vs the Thunder, the over rebound prop line has soared over in 6 of the last 12. While not the most popular pick, I love it. Who know's maybe Barnes will record a double-double for +2500 odds!
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