On Wednesday, March 12, the Denver Nuggets will host the Minnesota Timberwolves.
The Nuggets had Tuesday off after playing a back-to-back that included two games against the Oklahoma City Thunder on the road. The Nuggets split that “series” 1-1.
The Timberwolves haven’t played since Sunday, when they crushed the San Antonio Spurs 141-124.
Timberwolves big man Rudy Gobert has found himself on the injury report and is considered questionable with a back injury.
(Photo by David Berding/Getty Images)
Spoiler:
He’s featured in one of the props, so we encourage you to monitor his status up until tip-off.
Below, you’ll find the top four NBA player props today.
The odds for these NBA prop bets are courtesy of FanDuel and DraftKings.
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NBA Same Game Parlay Prediction: Nuggets vs Timberwolves
Best NBA Player Props Today:
- Rudy Gobert 22+ Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120) at DraftKings
- Christian Braun Under 18.5 Points + Assists (-112) at FanDuel
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 7.5 Points (-136) at FanDuel
- Anthony Edwards 4+ 3-Point Shots Made (-105) at DraftKings
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Rudy Gobert 22+ Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120) at DraftKings
Kicking off my list of the best NBA prop bets today is Gobert.
As mentioned above, Gobert is heading into this game with a back injury. It’s unclear if he’ll sit this out or play drastically reduced minutes.
While this should be considered one of the more volatile NBA prop bets today, despite the injury, I’ll take a chance at him going for 22 or more points, rebounds, and assists.
In just 20 minutes against the Spurs, he scored 16 points, eight rebounds, and two assists.
Over his last five games, he’s met or exceeded 22 four times.
The only time he fell short was in a game against Cleveland, where he finished with 12 points, rebounds, and one assist.
So, he was one of any stat shy of meeting this mark.
Denver is fairly good when it comes to keeping opponents away from rebounds. Opponents have just 49.6 (second-least) per game against them.
However, where they’re a bit weak is against offensive rebounds.
Opponents average 11.6 (tied for eighth-most) against the Nuggets.
Gobert is quite good at corralling these. He averages 3.5 offensive rebounds per game, the fifth-best in the NBA.
Regarding points, the Nuggets have allowed opponents to shoot 59.3% on 2-point shots over their last three games, the fifth-highest in the league in that stretch.
Gobert is on the injury report, but if he’s cleared to play, he should hit 22 for this combo prop without a problem.
Christian Braun Under 18.5 Points + Assists (-112) at FanDuel
If you look at Braun’s five most recent games, you’ll find that he’s had a combined 19 points and assists in each game.
So why take the under now?
In both games against Minnesota this season, the best he’s finished with points and assists is 16
In the most recent matchup on January 25, he had 10 points and three assists in about 26 minutes.
Back on November 1, 2024, he had 14 points and two assists. A shooting guard, Braun will likely face defense from Anthony Edwards. He’s a fairly middle-of-the-road defender.
He boasts a 111.4 defensive rating
That said, the Timberwolves as a whole are solid defensively. Opponents shoot just 34.9% from beyond the arch (seventh-worst), 45.9% from the floor (eighth-worst), and 53.6% on 2-point shots (11th-worst).
On top of that, opponents average a mere 24.6 assists per game (fifth-least).
Braun will get close, but I expect him to finish around that 16 number from the November matchup. Overall, this is my favorite of the best NBA props for this game.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 7.5 Points (-136) at FanDuel
This season, Alexander-Walker is averaging 9.4 points per game.
Over his last five games, he’s topped 7.5 points three times, including his two most recent games.
In the two games he fell short, he had three points against Charlotte and zero against Phoenix.
He's exceeded this line in both games against Denver this season, putting up 10 in their most recent affair.
Alexander-Walker is roughly the "seventh man" for the Timberwolves, averaging 25.5 minutes per game. He’s just behind Donte DiVincenzo, who’s also on the bench and averages 26.5 minutes per game.
The Nuggets have the ninth-worst defensive efficiency at 112.6.
While he had two bad outings recently, Alexander-Walker exceeded this line in nine of his last 11 matchups and 39 of 66 games this season.
Anthony Edwards 4+ 3-Point Shots Made (-105) at DraftKings
For my final installment of the best NBA player props tonight, I’m looking toward Edwards.
I expect him to finish with four or more 3-point shots made.
Over his last five games, he’s met or topped this line just twice.
However, in the three games he missed, he met his season-long 3-point shooting percentage (40%) just once.
The Nuggets allow 14 made 3-point shots per game, which is seventh-most in the NBA.
Over their last three games, that’s ballooned to 16.
Looking at his last 10 games, Edwards has had four or more on four occasions.
That said, given his season-long track record and how vulnerable Denver is to 3-point shots, I’m in.
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