Sports Reporter | Capper
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A tantalizing matchup in the NBA Cup just a week ago, Friday's game between the Suns and Thunder lacks the same kind of bite with Kevin Durant and Chet Holmgren going down with injuries in recent games.
Still, this should be a highly-watchable affair with both teams continuing to play well in the wake of the losses, and for our purposes they should man we have plenty of chances to find some market inefficiencies with the respective rotations still taking shape.
Let's build a same-game parlay for Suns vs Thunder on Friday, November 15th and lay out a few props that will work well as standalone straight bets as well.
FanDuel NBA Odds for Suns vs Thunder SGP: +461
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The sample size is still small with a measly three games under their belt since Durant went down to injury, but one thing that seems incredibly apparent is that the Suns are suddenly struggling to defend in the mid-range in addition to continued struggles against the 3.
Without the worry of Durant's defense, Williams -- who has sat in the top 12% of all players in shot frequency from the mid-range to lead all Thunder players -- should continue to pour in buckets as he's done quite well of late.
Williams has now scored 28 or more in consecutive games, and he's been an excellent contributor across the board in averaging more than 12 rebounds and assists over those contests.
I don't think it's a coincidence that they coincide with the injury to Holmgren, and against a Suns team which is struggling to defend without Durant and ranked just 19th on the boards, we should see a massive game out of Williams.
The Thunder have been solid in every shooting zone, so it's hard to really find one discernable weakness, but one thing that we can see in the numbers is that an overwhelming majority of their opponents' shots have come at the rim or from 3.
The Suns remain a 3-happy team, ranking fifth in the NBA since Durant's injury and fifth for the entirety of the season, and with Bradley Beal and Devin Booker now forced to drive the ship there's no reason that shouldn't continue.
Gilgeous-Alexander and Cason Wallace have each looked like unstoppable perimeter defenders, and Beal is missing in action here, so there's going to be an opportunity to profit out of the small forward spot.
I'm expecting Devin Booker to play some here, with Phoenix forced to lean on Tyus Jones for big minutes without Beal, and while he's ben working his way through a shooting slump we can take solace in the fact that he's just a game removed from a 5-of-9 night from deep against Utah and has taken eight or more 3-pointers in four of his last five.
Put simply, Nurkic should eat inside against a Thunder team which was already somewhat weak in the frontcourt and will now be down a big shot-blocker in Holmgren.
Nurkic has tallied double-digits in the rebounding column in five of his last six -- with his only miss coming in a game he was injured and played just 15 minutes, and as he worked his way back last game against the Kings he played just 21 minutes and scored three points.
The veteran should be afforded more minutes now that he's gotten his feet underneath him, and in a dream spot I think he should be equipped for his fifth double double of the season.
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