
We'll be in for a treat on Thursday as two of the very best teams in the NBA come together in Oklahoma City with each looking to avoid a second loss in their last five games.
With a key player missing in action for the home team, we'll look to exploit a couple of weaknesses brought on for the Thunder and look to find their go-to man on offense.
Let's build a same-game parlay for Cavaliers vs Thunder on Thursday, January 16 and lay out a few props that will work well as standalone straight bets as well.
DraftKings NBA Odds for Cavaliers vs Thunder SGP: +750
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It's admittedly hard to go after either of these defenses with the way they've played this season, but Jalen Williams seems to be a clear target on Oklahoma City's side of things.
Cleveland has not only given up shots in the short mid-range at the sixth-highest clip in the NBA this month, but it ranks dead last in field goal defense in the shooting zone. Isaiah Hartenstein won't suit up here, meaning there should be some shots to go around in this spot on the court, and I believe the onus will once again be on Williams to score.
Williams is seeing a 1.48-point increase in field goal percentage with Hartenstein off the floor this season, and a dip in 3-point attempts would confirm to me that it's due to the fact that he's looked as a replacement for the big man on offense.
The wing is sitting inside the top 20% of all forwards in shot frequency in the short mid-range, and after going for 24 or more in two of his last four -- including that meeting with the Cavaliers -- he should be rearing to do so again.
The scoring totals don't look the prettiest, but his minutes been limited in recent weeks due to blowouts. This one should be air-tight.
With Hartenstein out, there should be a rare opportunity for the Cavaliers on the glass -- an area they've continued to struggle.
Yes, Cleveland sits 19th in rebounding rate this year and 20th this month, but the Thunder will feature a much different look here without their starting center.
Evan Mobley is surely the best man to back here, given he's averaged four more minutes per game than Jarret Allen in six games this month and has nearly equaled him in rebounding rate.
Mobley failed to hit this number last time out against Oklahoma City, but he's done so in his last three and will now step into a more comfortable matchup.
This one might be a tough sell, because the Thunder have been good in every area of the floor with the exception of the rim this month. Why, then, are we taking an outside shooter against the top 3-point defense over that same period in time?
Well, if we read the tea leaves here we'll discover that the Thunder have actually been worse at defending the rim with Hartenstein on the floor -- by almost four percentage points.
Down a crucial member of their lineup, I believe this is the time to fire up Strus -- who's hit four or more triples in three of his last four games including the previous meeting between these two teams. The Thunder have given up a ton of 3-point looks this month, too, so there's certainly credence to backing a shooter here.
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