Sports Reporter | Capper
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The Milwaukee Bucks have now dropped four of their last six games, and despite a win over the Toronto Raptors last time out will be in a spot of bother Wednesday given the San Antonio Spurs' strong defensive performance of late.
With Jeremy Sochan set to miss another game for San Antonio, we'll take a look at two players who should benefit from his absence and find Milwaukee's best way through a complete Spurs defense.
Let's build a same-game parlay for Spurs vs Bucks on Wednesday, January 8 and lay out a few props that will work well as standalone straight bets as well.
DraftKings NBA Odds for Spurs vs Bucks SGP: +500
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I'll admit, I wasn't sprinting to Victor Wembanyama's player props when I began breaking this game down. His recent run, however, has made it hard to look past the bigman in what should be a profitable spot.
With the ball in his hands more without one of the Spurs' key playmakers, I'm expecting a slight uptick in assists -- particularly with Milwaukee giving up a ton of shots at the rim. Wemby's averaged roughly four assists per game without Sochan this season, and despite fluctuating numbers in that category he's steadied of late with four per game over his last four.
The area to watch will be the long mid-range, where the Bucks have allowed the second-most shots in the last two weeks. This is where Wembanyama has done the bulk of his shooting, and given Milwaukee is just 19th in defending the mid-range over the last two weeks to keep with a troubling trend, I expect more scoring.
This isn't a slam-dunk spot for rebounds given Wembanyama should be playing away from the rim on offense and stepping out to guard the likes of Bobby Portis and Brook Lopez, but the Bucks have ranked in the top 10 of shooting frequency at the cup over that aforementioned two-week span which should create some rebounding chances for the red-hot superstar.
Speaking of the mid-range, that's just about the only place to find success on offense against the Spurs these days. They've owned the best rim defense and second-best 3-point defense over the last two weeks, but have ranked just 22nd in the short mid-range zone.
Middleton was held in check against the Portland Trail Blazers the last time we saw him, but prior to that had gone for 12 or more points in seven straight contests.
With San Antonio struggling just outside the restricted area of late, and sitting just 19th against all mid-range jumpers this season, we should see Middleton find plenty of success -- particularly given he took 13 shots per game on average up until that last clunker against the Trail Blazers.
The Spurs should also further force the veteran into action given what we've laid out above regarding the strengths of their defense, limiting the effectiveness of Giannis Antetokounmpo.
The Milwaukee Bucks haven't been world-beaters on the glass this season, ranking 20th in rebounding rate and sticking right around their season mark over the last two weeks.
That's created plenty of chances for opponents to rack up numbers in this column, but point guards have had a particularly easy time with Milwaukee allowing the second-most rebounds per game to the position.
I'd love to grab some shares of Stephon Castle in this one, but unfortunately oddsmakers aren't giving us the chance. I'm not scared one bit to go with Paul, however given he's steadied with over 31 minutes per game in the last three contests and has been a stat-stuffing machine.
As Wembanyama is pulled out of the paint a bit more by Milwaukee's floor-spacing bigs, too, Paul should find himself guarding some driving guards as the Bucks continue to force the issue at the rim at a high clip. We'll bank on San Antonio's strong interior defense creating plenty of rebounding opportunities for the veteran.
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