NBA Playoffs Best Bets (April 20): Odds & Picks For Cavaliers, Knicks, and Nuggets

The first round of the NBA playoffs got underway over the weekend, and fans were treated to some great games. It was a good weekend for betting on the favorites, as they went 8-2, but a terrible one for betting on the over as only one game finished over its total.

But now it’s time to move on to Game 2, specifically the Toronto Raptors vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Atlanta Hawks vs. the New York Knicks, and the Minnesota Timberwolves taking on the Denver Nuggets. Let’s review the odds for each game and discuss the best NBA playoffs bets for each.

(Photo by Rocky Widner/NBAE via Getty Images)

NBA Playoffs Best Bets: Toronto Raptors vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

• Spread: Toronto Raptors +9.5 (-110) | Cleveland Cavaliers -9.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Toronto Raptors +315 | Cleveland Cavaliers -400
• Total: O/U 222.5 (-110/-110)

Odds via FanDuel

Toronto had Cleveland’s number during the regular season, with a clean sweep, 3-0. But you wouldn’t know it if Saturday night’s 126-113 Cavs win was the first time you saw them play. Of course, there is a major difference between the Cavs team in those three games and in Saturday’s playoff game.

And his name is James Harden.

Harden is one of the most prolific scoring threats in the NBA and gives Cleveland quite the dynamic duo with Donovan Mitchell. Together, they combined for 54 points, both hit 4-of-7 3-point attempts, and Harden chipped in 10 assists. They got some help from Max Strus on Saturday, who chipped in 24 points (4 for 6 from 3-point range).

As important as the James Harden Effect is to the Cavaliers, the deciding factor in Game 1 may have been Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen controlling the paint. Toronto outscored Cleveland in the paint in all three regular-season wins, but the Cavs dominated the paint in Game 1, 52-36. They had some help from Harden, of course, on offense, but they deserve the bulk of the credit on the defensive end.

Raptors vs. Cavaliers Prediction

• My Pick: Cavaliers -9.5 Points: -110 (FanDuel)

Toronto needs to get Immanuel Quickley (listed as a game-time decision) back to help get the offense on track, and it must get a better game out of Brandon Ingram (17 points) while Scottie Barnes and RJ Barrett have to cut down on the turnovers (they combined for nine of Toronto’s 17 in Game 1). If Quickley returns and Ingram, Barnes, and Barrett can clean up their games, the outcome of this game could be different from Game 1.

But Toronto has too much it needs to fix just to make this one more competitive. It will be too hard to cover all the bases in front of a packed house on the road against a Cleveland team that is clicking at the right time.

NBA Playoffs Best Bets: Atlanta Hawks vs. New York Knicks

• Spread: Atlanta Hawks +6 (-114) | New York Knicks -6 (-114)
• Moneyline: Atlanta Hawks +210 | New York Knicks -255
• Total: O/U 217.5 (-108/-112)

Odds via FanDuel

Atlanta ended the season on a low note, losing three of its last four games, and things didn’t really improve for it in Game 1 against the Knicks. It’s not so much that the Hawks did several things wrong or played poorly, but they didn’t take advantage of the opportunities they were given, and the Knicks did.

New York didn’t really blow them away in any single aspect of the game. Statistically speaking, the Knicks led in several categories, but the differences in most were not significant — except for one. Atlanta went 12 for 19 from the free-throw line while the Knicks hit 25 of 30. That’s a difference of 13 points in a game that was decided by 11, 113-102.

The Hawks have a solid young roster with a lot of talent, but that may be the problem. They don’t have that “been there, done that” guy to keep the team centered and focused on the task at hand. That totally plays into the Knicks' metaphorical hands.

New York is going to play at a slower pace, limiting scoring opportunities. Atlanta will not get the possessions it needs to score 121 points as it averaged in the last 15 games of the regular season. With the possessions the Knicks do get, they’ll find it tough to score on Atlanta’s elite defense.

Hawks vs. Knicks Prediction

• My Pick: Knicks -6 Points: -114 (FanDuel)

Atlanta has to get the offense moving. CJ McCollum had a decent night in Game 1 (11 for 20 for 26 points) as did Jalen Johnson (8 for 19 for 23 points). But it needs someone else to step up on the offensive end to help shoulder the scoring burden. However, don’t count on someone doing it.  The New York defense is tough to handle, but with a rabid home crowd getting behind it, even more so.

The Hawks will play a better game this time around, but the Knicks will cover once again. Jalen Brunson (28 points) and Karl-Anthony Towns (25 points) led the way in Game 1 and will do so again tonight.

NBA Playoffs Best Bets: Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets

• Spread: Minnesota Timberwolves +7 (-106) | Denver Nuggets -7 (-114)
• Moneyline: Minnesota Timberwolves +240 | Denver Nuggets -295
• Total: O/U 231.5 (-110/-110)

Odds via FanDuel

Denver got off to a slow start in Game 1 against Minnesota but shook it off, got on track, and secured a 116-105 win in a gritty, physical game. Minnesota had a better night at the 3-point line (11 for 34 next to 10 for 36 for Denver) and won the paint battle, 54-42. But the 42 fouls called during the game may have been the deciding factor.

The Timberwolves went 14 for 19 from the line, but the Nuggets went 30 for 33. Jamal Murray went 0 for 8 from 3-point range but made it up for it by going 16 for 16 from the foul line. Nikola Jokić had a triple-double with 25 points, 13 rebounds, and 11 assists. He only went to the foul line once (1 for 1).

Take away the fouls, and Minnesota played well enough to win the game. Anthony Edwards led the way with 22 points, 9 rebounds, and 7 assists, followed by Rudy Gobert with 17 and Julius Randle with 16. All five starters scored in double digits. Defensively, the Timberwolves didn’t do a bad job, but when you hold a player like Murray to 0 for 8 from the 3-point line,  you can’t send him to the foul line as much as they did.

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Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Prediction

• My Pick: OVER 231.5 Points: -110 (FanDuel)

The key to how this game plays out will be Edwards. He was a little rusty in his first game back, but still turned in a respectable game. As long as his knee isn’t bothering him too much, we should see a better game out of him. Of course, if the Denver defense plays as it did in Game 1, the UNDER will be the right play.

But the Nuggets defensive rating was 116.0 in the regular season (No. 21). So, I’m not counting on it. Denver had a bad night from the floor in Game 1; that will not happen in Game 2. Murray will not go 0-for from the 3-point line again. I’d pick Denver to win, but I’m not confident it can cover.

I am confident, however, that we will see a better offensive performance from both teams in this game, leading to a higher scoring contest.