NBA Playoffs Best Bets (April 25): Odds & Picks For Pistons vs. Magic, Thunder vs. Suns & Nuggets vs. Timberwolves

Saturday is going to be a busy day for the NBA Playoffs, with four playoff games for fans to enjoy betting on. The action starts with the Detroit Pistons taking on the Orlando Magic (1 p.m. EST) and concludes with the Minnesota Timberwolves hosting the Denver Nuggets (8:30 p.m. EST).

Three of the four series playing out today have seen the underdog win at least one game, and two are currently being led by the underdog. Will they continue their dominant run? We’ll discuss that and more in today’s NBA Playoff Best Bets.

(Photo by Dustin Satloff/Getty Images)

NBA Playoffs Best Bets: Detroit Pistons vs. Orlando Magic Odds and Prediction

• Spread: Detroit Pistons -2.5 (-110) | Orlando Magic +2.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Detroit Pistons -135 | Orlando Magic +114
• Total: O/U 215.5 (-112/-108)

Odds via DraftKings

What makes this game difficult is that we just don’t know what we'll get from either team. Orlando played well in Game 1 and got the win over Detroit, 112-101. Orlando shot better (49% to 40%), won the rebound battle (45-39), and dominated the paint (54-34). Paolo Banchero led the way with 23 points and nine rebounds, followed by Franz Wagner with 19. All five starters scored in double figures.

Detroit was an 8.5-point favorite and lost by 11. Cade Cunningham had 39 points, and Tobias Harris had 17, but they didn’t get much help from anyone else.

But then Game 2 happened. Orlando shot 33% to 46% for Detroit. The Pistons won the rebound battle, 57-42, and dominated the paint (54-34). Cunningham had 27 points and 11 assists, and this time it was all of the Pistons' starting five that scored in double digits. It was a solid, commanding win that must have some fans thinking Game 1 was an isolated incident. Now, the Pistons are going to roll as expected.

Or will they?

It all depends on what version of the Magic we see. Will it be the solid team from Game 1 that featured all five starters scoring in double figures and shooting 49% from the floor? Or will it be the one that couldn’t buy a bucket in Game 2?

My Pick: Detroit -2.5 (-110, DraftKings)

As exciting as it was to see Orlando pull off an upset in Game 1, fans need to temper their expectations for the Magic going forward. Since the first round became a best-of-seven series in 2003, the No. 8 seed has upset the No. 1 seed in Game 1 of the series 11 times. Of the 10 series that have concluded in that instance, the No. 8 seed went on to win in three (in 2007, 2011, and 2023).

Detroit is the better team here. Orlando shocked the Pistons in Game 1 (not unusual). But then Detroit did what we expected in Game 2. Will it do it again? The Pistons may not win by double digits, but they’ll cover a 2.5-point spread.

NBA Playoffs Best Bets: Oklahoma City vs. Phoenix Suns Odds and Prediction

• Spread: Oklahoma City -9 (-110) | Phoenix Suns +9 (-110)
• Moneyline: Oklahoma City -425 | Phoenix Suns +325
• Total: O/U 216.0 (-110/-110)

Odds via bet365

This series has not been a surprise at all. Oklahoma City had one of the best defenses and offenses in the NBA this season and was consistently one of the top teams despite often dealing with multiple injuries. As for Phoenix, the Suns are good. They had a top-10 defense in the regular season but were near the bottom of the league in scoring (112.6 points per game, No. 26).

The differences between the two were evident in Game 1 with the Thunder dominating throughout, 119-84. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a solid night with 25 points, but didn’t blow up as you might expect in a blowout win. Then again, he didn't need to with everyone on the team scoring except one player.

But then the Suns showed signs of life and played much better in Game 2, but still fell short, 120-107.  Their Big Three showed up, led by Dillon Brooks with 30 points, followed by Devin Booker with 22 and Jalen Green with 21. This time, SGA did blow up, with 37 points on the night for the Thunder.

So, can the Suns get enough of a lift from going home to get into Game 3? Eh…fans may not want to count on that. Phoenix averaged a higher score on the road (113.2 points per game) than at home (112 points per game) during the regular season.

My Pick: Oklahoma City -9 (-110, bet365)

OKC will be down one player today with Jalen Williams ruled out with a hamstring injury, but dealing with injuries is par for the course for the Thunder. Oklahoma City will still win. It is too good on both ends of the court and has too much depth for the Suns to handle.  However, can OKC cover a 9.5-point spread?

After winning both prior games by double-digits, the easy answer is yes, of course. But you also have to consider that the Thunder went 20-20 ATS on the road. Phoenix has gone 24-18-1 ATS at home this season. However, the Thunder have the No. 1 scoring team in the playoffs (119.7 points per game) and the Suns the No. 16 offense (95.5 points per game). OKC will cover.

NBA Playoffs Best Bets New York Knicks vs. Atlanta Hawks Odds and Prediction

• Spread: New York Knicks -2 (-110) | Atlanta Hawks +2 (-110)
• Moneyline: New York Knicks -130 | Atlanta Hawks +110
• Total: O/U 215.0 (-110/-110)

Odds via bet365

The regular-season series between these two teams was competitive. Yes, New York won it, 2-1, but both victories were by three points, and Atlanta’s win was by 12. So, the fact that this series is competitive should not be too shocking. But did anyone not living in Atlanta see the Hawks leading this series after three games?

New York’s 11-point win in Game 1 was not surprising, with Jalen Brunson turning in 28 points and Karl-Anthony Towns contributing 25.  CJ McCollum led the Hawks with 26 points. But then getting outscored 28-15 in the fourth quarter in Game 2 to lose by one, 107-106 — that was surprising.

The Knicks had a chance to return the favor in Game 3 by overcoming an early 10-point deficit in the fourth to take a 108-107 lead late in the game. But missed shots by Josh Hart and Brunson led to a shot clock turnover, giving McCollum the chance for one last basket and the win.

Despite back-to-back one-point losses, the Knicks are still favored to win. Are they getting too much respect or is Atlanta not getting enough?

My Pick: Under 215 (-110, bet365)

Teams that win Game 1 of the best-of-seven series in the first round typically go on to win the series roughly 80% of the time. Meanwhile, teams that get out to a 2-1 advantage tend to win the series just over 80% of the time. What does this tell us? That Game 4 is anyone’s to win. With such a small spread, it is easy to make a case for betting on either team, which is why I’m going with the under.

The Under is 1-2 in the series and is 18-24 for Atlanta at home this season and 19-24 for the Knicks on the road. Both teams had top 10 defenses in the regular season, and both will make their presence felt Saturday.

NBA Playoffs Best Bets: Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Odds and Prediction

• Spread: Denver Nuggets -1.5 (-106) | Minnesota Timberwolves +1.5 (-114)
• Moneyline: Denver Nuggets -118 | Minnesota Timberwolves +100
• Total: O/U 229.5 (-110/-110)

Odds via FanDuel

Denver winning in Game 1 was not shocking. After all, they had the highest scoring offense in the regular season, averaging 122.2 points per game. Now, holding Minnesota’s top-10 offense to 105 points was a little surprising (Denver’s defensive rating ranked No. 21 in the regular season).

Seeing Minnesota win Game 2 in Denver, it was also not shocking. It is not unusual to see a team that lost Game 1 of a series win Game 2. But to see the Nuggets fall flat in Game 3 and lose by 19 points with Anthony Edwards only scoring 17 for the T-wolves — that was surprising.

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What is going so wrong for Denver? Well, Nikola Jokić put up 27 points and had 15 rebounds, but only three assists. Jamaal Murray couldn’t buy a shot, hitting just 5 of 17 from the floor and going 0 for 5 from 3-point range. The rest of the starting five chipped in 14 points.

Minnesota, on the other hand, saw all five starters score in double figures, led by Jaden McDaniels with 20 points. But the team was led off the bench by Ayo Dosunmu, who finished with 25 points.

My Pick:  Minnesota ML (+100, FanDuel)

This is a tough one. The spread is so small that it is not hard to make a case for either to cover. At 229.5, this is the lowest total this series has seen; the Over is just 1-2 despite Denver’s No. 1-ranked offense. As for an outright winner, it is not hard to understand why the Nuggets are favored despite losing two in a row and playing on the road. Surely, such a good team will come out swinging in this game gunning for a win, right?

However, while Denver had the No. 1 offense during the regular season, it was not a strong defensive team. Minnesota, on the other hand, was a top 10 offensive and defensive team. At this point, I have more faith in Minnesota than Denver.