NBA Playoffs Best Bets (April 28): Odds & Picks With 76ers, Trail Blazers Facing Elimination

Tonight, in NBA Playoffs action, we have two teams on the verge of elimination (the Philadelphia 76ers and the Portland Trail Blazers) and one series (the Atlanta Hawks vs. the New York Knicks) where a win could give one squad a decisive advantage. History favors the home teams in each game, but that does not necessarily make them one of our NBA Playoffs best bets.

The Orlando vs. Detroit series is proof that anything can happen in the postseason. On that note, let’s discuss the odds for each game and our NBA Playoffs best bets.

(Photo by Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images)

NBA Playoffs Best Bets: Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics (Odds And Prediction)

• Spread: Philadelphia 76ers +11 (-110) | Boston Celtics -11 (-110)
• Moneyline: Philadelphia 76ers +400 | Boston Celtics -550
• Total: O/U 213 (-110/-110)

Odds via bet365

Philadelphia fans had reason to hold on to hope when the series came home tied at a game apiece. As long as it didn’t lose both home games, and Joel Embiid could come back, maybe the 76ers would have a chance at a first-round upset. But lose both and head back to Boston down 1-3 …

They got Embiid back in Game 4, and he recorded a double-double with 26 points and 10 rebounds. However, he was not sharp, and fatigue was certainly an issue. An argument could be made that his return hurt more than it helped. Why? Because he took shots away from Tyrese Maxey.

Maxey had taken 20+ shots in the first three games (20, 28, 31) but only had 14 in Game 4. He still had a solid night from the 3-point line, going 4 for 7 (5 for 12 and 5 for 13 in Games 2 and 3), but his scoring dipped from a series high of 31 in Game 3 to 22. That wasn’t the only issue the 76ers had in Game 4. Kelly Oubre Jr. missed all six shots he took, and VJ Edgecombe shot 2 for 9 and scored six points.

However, as dominant as the Celtics were in Game 4, the formula may not be sustainable, with three players accounting for 82 of 128 points (Jayson Tatum–30, Jaylen Brown–20, Payton Pritchard–32).

My Pick: OVER 213 (-110, bet365)

Boston got the scare in Game 2 that every contender could use in the playoffs. But it has since refocused and took care of business in Philadelphia. Now, back at home and with a 3-1 series lead, there’s blood in the water, and the Celtics will go in for the kill. However, while I expect a Boston victory, the spread feels generous.

At the same time, I don’t know if we can count on the 76ers to play well enough to stay within reach. Embiid is officially a game-time decision, but with elimination on the line, he should play. Desperation will give Philadelphia a boost, enough to send the final over the total, but not enough to stave off elimination.

NBA Playoffs Best Bets: Atlanta Hawks vs. New York Knicks (Odds And Prediction)

• Spread: Atlanta Hawks +6.5 (-110) | New York Knicks -6.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Atlanta Hawks +210 | New York Knicks -260
• Total: O/U 214.5 (-110/-110)

Odds via bet365

After losing Games 2 and 3, Game 4 wasn’t necessarily a must-win, but heading back home with the series tied at two games apiece is better than a 3-1 deficit and facing elimination. Having the offense flow through Karl-Anthony Towns seemed to make a big difference as the Knicks had their best offensive output of the series with 114 points.

KAT averaged just three assists per game during the regular season and had 10 total in the first three games of the series. But he had 10 alone in Game 4.

But with time to figure out an adjustment, maybe the Hawks will have a plan for dealing with Towns as the offensive conduit. They’ll certainly need to if they are to avoid heading back to Atlanta in a hole. However, Atlanta has struggled with making adjustments the deeper the series goes.

My Bet: Atlanta team total OVER 103.5 (-115, bet365)

If asked to pick a winner, I’d lean towards the Knicks as the home team. But New York has not been the most consistent team. It could still win, but I can’t say that with enough conviction to sell taking it to win or cover. But I do think Atlanta’s youth will give the Knicks a run for their money, win or lose, yet again. However, if Jalen Brunson wakes up, the Hawks don’t cover (but if he does…).

Atlanta’s young roster has played well against a tough Knicks defense, scoring over this total in two of four games. The Hawks missed it by a basket in Game 1. After a poor night from 3-point range (10-41), they missed it by two 3-pointers in Game 4. I think they’ll get those two additional baskets tonight.

NBA Playoffs Best Bets: Portland Trail Blazers vs San Antonio Spurs (Odds And Prediction)

• Spread: Portland Trail Blazers +12 (-115) | San Antonio Spurs -12 (-105)
• Moneyline: Portland Trail Blazers +475 | San Antonio Spurs -650
• Total: O/U 217 (-110/-110)

Odds via Fanatics

With the return of Victor Wembanyama in Game 4, all was once again right in the world for the San Antonio Spurs and its fans. His shot wasn’t pretty, but he scored 27 points on the night (9 for 17, 1 for 4 from 3-point range), pulled down 12 rebounds, and recorded seven blocks. However, the Spurs were down 58-41 at the half.

San Antonio owned the second half, outscoring Portland 73-35, and securing a 114-93 win.

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Portland missed out on a golden opportunity to take a 2-1 lead when it let Game 3 slip away after leading by 15 late in the third. But by bouncing back in the first half of Game 4, the Trail Blazers showed they can compete with the Spurs. However, with the chance to secure a series win at home and give their superstar some additional rest, the Spurs are motivated to close this one out.

With Wemby back in the lineup, Portland will have a rough time pulling off an upset in this matchup.

My Pick: UNDER 217 (-111, Fanatics)

I expect San Antonio to win this game and close the series out at home. But Portland is a solid team. If the Trail Blazers play up to their potential, they can make this a competitive game and stay within 12 points. There is no value in betting the moneyline, which leaves the total. The Under is 3-1 in this series. Portland has been held to under 100 points twice in this series. San Antonio will close this series out in a relatively low-scoring game