NBA Playoffs Best Bets (April 29): Lakers vs. Rockets, Magic, and Cavaliers Odds and Picks

We have got an exciting triple-header of NBA Playoffs action on deck tonight with two teams facing elimination. Of course, when the stakes are high, deciding which NBA Playoffs bets to make can be a challenge. Will the Pistons wake up? Can the Rockets survive one more game and force the series back to Houston?

These are important questions to consider, among other things, when choosing which markets to include as one of my NBA Playoffs best bets for Wednesday, April 29.

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NBA Playoffs Best Bets: Orlando Magic vs. Detroit Pistons (Odds And Prediction)

• Spread: Orlando Magic +9.5 (-105) | Detroit Pistons -9.5 (-115)
• Moneyline: Orlando Magic +310 | Detroit Pistons -395
• Total: O/U 211.5 (-108/-112)

Odds via DraftKings

This series was not supposed to play out as it has. All season long, it looked like Detroit was destined to make a deep run into the playoffs. It certainly was not supposed to get knocked out of the first round by one of the play-in teams.

But Orlando’s defense has clamped down hard on the Pistons, leaving little to no room for error. The Magic have the second-best defensive rating among postseason teams at 102.3. During the regular season, they had the 13th-best defensive rating at 113.6, and Detroit had the second-best.

Cade Cunningham has done his best to keep the Pistons alive. He is averaging 29.5 per game, a step up from his regular-season average of 23.9 points. But with the rest of the lineup struggling, he has been left to carry the load, and Orlando’s relentless defense may be wearing him down.

In Games 1 and 2, he went 24 for 46 for a shot percentage of 52.2%. But in Games 3 and 4, he went 15 for 46 for a shot percentage of 30.1%. To make matters worse, Cunningham has had 27 turnovers so far in this series (3, 7, 9, and 8). With 24 total in Games 2-4, he has set a new record for most turnovers in a three-game span in the playoffs since turnovers began getting tracked in 1977-78 (ESPN Insights).

Jonathan Isaac is listed on Orlando’s injury report as a game-time decision, but is doubtful to play according to ESPN. Franz Wagner is also listed as a game-time decision, but questionable to play (via ESPN). But with the chance to eliminate a No. 1 seed and make history …

My Pick: Magic +9.5 (-105, DraftKings)

I’m a little surprised that the Pistons are such a heavy favorite despite being down 1-3. To be fair, it would not be shocking to see Detroit’s roster step up in an elimination game while the Magic slack off. But I don’t see that happening. Orlando is playing good, solid basketball; Detroit is not. Part of me wants to be greedy here and go for the moneyline at +310.

With how well Orlando’s defense is playing and Cunningham starting to fade, it may be the Magic that wins by 10+ points. But in case the Pistons get it together and/or Cunningham goes off, and it’s a competitive game, take the Magic and the points.

NBA Playoffs Best Bets: Toronto Raptors vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (Odds And Prediction)

• Spread: Toronto Raptors +9 (-110) | Cleveland Cavaliers -9 (-110)
• Moneyline: Toronto Raptors +310 | Cleveland Cavaliers -390
• Total: O/U 218 (-110/-110)

Odds via bet365

After a pair of double-digit wins at home to start the series, it looked like the Cavaliers might cruise through their first-round series vs. the Raptors. But then the series moved north of the border, and that perception changed as the home team took both games, tying the series at 2-2.

Cleveland didn’t look much like the team that won Games 1 and 2 in Games 3 and 4. Rather than play smoothly and at pace, it has struggled to get on track and has often looked stagnant and out of sync. The Cavaliers' inability to score and some questionable decision-making in Game 4 helped the Raptors to overcome an 8-point deficit, late in the fourth quarter.

If the Cavs are to regain the advantage in this series, the “home court” Cavs have to show up. In Games 1 and 2, Cleveland was more efficient, controlled the pace, shot at a higher percentage, and took care of the ball. But in Games 3 and 4, it was essentially the exact opposite.

In Game 3, the Cavs shot 44% from the field while Toronto shot 57%. But in Game 4, neither team shot the ball well (Cleveland—32%, Toronto—37%). However, the Raptors went 27 for 36 from the free-throw line, while the Cavs went 15 for 23. Cleveland lost the turnover battle in both games after winning it in Games 1 and 2.  James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, and Evan Mobley combined for an average of 8.5 turnovers in Games 1 and 2. Harden averaged 7.5 himself in Games 3 and 4.

My Pick: Over 218 (-110, bet365)

Cleveland will come out with better focus in this game and play much better than it did in both games in Toronto. However, the Raptors played well in Games 1 and 2, the Cavs just played better. I believe we’ll see a solid contest between two good teams, exactly what the No. 5 vs. No. 4-seed matchup should deliver.

However, I do not have enough faith in either team to play so much better than the other that they cover the spread. But we will see both sides play better on offense. The first three games went over this total, and so will Game 5.

NBA Playoffs Best Bets: Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Lakers (Odds And Prediction)

• Spread: Houston Rockets +4 (-110) | Los Angeles Lakers -4 (-110)
• Moneyline: Houston Rockets +150 | Los Angeles Lakers -178
• Total: O/U 208.5 (-110/-110)

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Houston should have swept this series. With Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves out for the first four games, the Rockets should have won all four, even with Kevin Durant on the bench for three of them. But they made fundamental flaws in each loss:

• Game 1: They allowed the Lakers to make 61% of their shots (40 for 66) while making only 38% of their own (35 for 93).
• Game 2: The Lakers made 46% (13 for 28) of their 3-pointers to Houston’s 24% (7 for 29); The Lakers also made more free throws (22 for 28 to 15 for 19).
• Game 3: The Lakers made 48% of their shots (38 for 79) to 41% for Houston (40 for 98); LA also won the foul line again (24f or 32 to 17 for 23).

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In short, the Lakers played solid, efficient basketball (overall) in Games 1-3, and the Rockets did not. But when Houston finally did in Game 4, it won 115-96. Durant was unavailable, but all five Houston starters scored in double figures, led by Amen Thompson with 23 points.

My Pick: Rockets ML (+150, Caesars Sportsbook)

This game will come down to which version of the Houston Rockets shows up. Los Angeles was fortunate in Games 1-3, getting good games from LeBron James and having someone else step up. The Lakers didn’t have that in Game 4. Reaves could make his return (listed as questionable per ESPN). However, the smarter move may be to see if they can win this one without him and bring him back for Game 6 (and 7, if needed) if they don’t. Durant is out for Houston again (per ESPN). We’ve seen that the Rockets can play fine on both ends of the court without him.

Houston’s defense will flex its muscle again in Game 5, regardless of whether Reaves returns, and lead the Rockets to a win.