NBA Playoffs Best Bets (April 30): Atlanta, Denver, and Philadelphia Odds and Picks

During the regular season, teams can always say, “ We’ll get ‘em next time” after a loss. But in the NBA Playoffs, when a team is down 3-2 in a best-of-seven series, there is no “next time.” The perceived desire not to get eliminated is certainly something  I factored in while researching today’s NBA Playoffs Best Bets.

The Atlanta Hawks, Philadelphia 76ers, and Minnesota Timberwolves are all facing elimination tonight. History is certainly against them extending their respective series to Game 7 (of the 244 times since 1984 when one team had a 3-2 advantage, only 37 advanced to Game 7). But there is more to being one of our NBA Playoffs Best Bets than just winning or losing.

(Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)

Let’s take a look at the odds and analyze each game.

NBA Playoffs Best Bets: New York Knicks vs. Atlanta Hawks (Odds And Prediction)

• Spread: New York Knicks -2.5 (-110) | Atlanta Hawks +2.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: New York Knicks -150 | Atlanta Hawks +125
• Total: O/U 214.5 (-110/-110)

Odds via bet365

The outlook for the Knicks was not promising when they went down 1-2 in this series, but they have since battled back with blowout wins in the last two games to take a 3-2 advantage in the series. But can they close out the series on the road? That’s a task that is certainly easier said than done.

New York has certainly poured it on in the last two games, averaging 120 points (up from just over 109 points per game in the first three) while shooting 53.1% from the field, 43.9% from 3-point range, and 45.5 rebounds per game. On the defensive end, it went from averaging 105+ points per game allowed to under 98.

Jalen Brunson had his best night of the series in Game 5, scoring 39 points and shooting 65.2% from the field (15 for 23, 3 for 5 from 3-point range). Karl-Anthony Towns has had a double-double in the last three games, and OG Anunoby has had one in the last two.

With two solid wins in a row, momentum is clearly with the Knicks. Playing back at home should give the Hawks a boost, but the key to victory for them will be getting CJ McCollum on track. After scoring 26, 32, and 23 points in the first three games, he scored just 17 and six points in Games 4 and 5.

Jock Landale has been ruled out by the Hawks. Josh Hart is listed as a game-time decision for the Knicks.

My Pick: Knicks -2.5 (-110, bet365)

We will see a better game out of the Hawks tonight, but it may not matter. Why? Because the Knicks are playing an efficient and clean game. They aren’t playing perfect games, but they are making fewer mistakes than the Hawks. In the last two games, the Knicks recorded an effective field goal percentage of 60.8% to 49.7% for Atlanta.

It will be another great game, one that is likely decided in the fourth quarter. But that is when the Knicks will either force a few critical mistakes or the Hawks will make a few that will cost them the game.

NBA Playoffs Best Bets: Boston Celtics vs. Philadelphia 76ers (Odds And Prediction)

• Spread: Boston Celtics -6.5 (-112) |  Philadelphia 76ers +6.5 (-108)
• Moneyline: Boston Celtics -245 | Philadelphia 76ers +200
• Total: O/U 212.5 (-114/-106)

Odds via FanDuel

Joel Embiid’s return in Game 4 of the series didn’t really help the 76ers out, even though he led the team in scoring for that game. His shot wasn’t clean, and fatigue from such a long layoff appeared to be a factor. If it was, that was certainly not the case in Game 5, when he once again led the way, but in a win this time, with 33 points, 4 rebounds, and 8 assists.

Tyrese Maxey also had a solid night in Game 5, recording his first double-double of the playoffs with 25 points and 10 rebounds. As important as their improved output on the offensive end was, the improvement on defense was even better. A game after giving up 128 points, the 76ers held the Celtics to 97.

Philadelphia’s defensive rating for the night was 103.2; Boston’s was 120.3.

The question now is whether the 76ers can pick up where they left off when Game 6 gets underway tonight and force a Game 7. Having Embiid in the lineup will certainly help. He is on the injury report and listed as a game-time decision (per ESPN), but is considered probable.

My Pick: 76ers game total Under 103.5 (-128, FanDuel)

If you want a winner, I’m leaning toward the Celtics because history is on their side. Since 1984, there have been six best-of-seven series that have played out with the higher seed winning Game 1, losing Game 2, winning both road games, and then losing Game 5 back at home. Of those six, the higher-seeded team closed out the series in Game 6 five times.

However, Embiid’s return throws a wrench into things. It is hard to say with confidence that the Celtics will cover, and there is no value in the moneyline. But Boston has one of the best defenses in the NBA. It has held Philly under this mark in three of the five games in this series.

NBA Playoffs Best Bets: Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (Odds And Prediction)

• Spread: Denver Nuggets -6.5 (-110) | Minnesota Timberwolves +6.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Denver Nuggets -260 | Minnesota Timberwolves +215
• Total: O/U 225.5 (-108/-112)

Odds via FanDuel

Denver got what it has sorely needed throughout this series in Game 5: a stellar performance from Nikola Jokić (27 points, 12 rebounds, and 16 assists) and help from someone other than Jamaal Murray (24 points). Spencer Jones stepped up with 20 points while Cameron Johnson chipped in 18.

Jones and Johnson previously combined for a high of 17 points in Game 1, with Jones coming off the bench.

The injuries to Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo certainly helped out the Nuggets on the scoreboard and on the court. Between the two key players, that is close to 30 points a game that the Timberwolves have needed to replace. That Minnesota defense, which had frustrated the Nuggets so much in Games 1-4, allowed 125 points after holding Denver to under 100 in the previous two games.

The T-wolves' defense earned a 122.5 rating for Game 5. For the series, it is now 108.7.

During the regular season, Minnesota has the third-highest home defense rating in the NBA (109.0). If the Denver offense can pick up where it left off in Game 5, the Timberwolves will need their defense to play even better to give them a chance to close out the series.

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My Pick: Minnesota game total, Under 109.5 -118

Minnesota’s defense could make this game interesting, but I am not confident they’ll have enough offense to matter. Edwards and DiVincenzo only accounted for about 30 points a game, but if no one replaces at least a chunk of that production, the T-wolves offense is in trouble. Ayo Dosunmu replaced it with 43 points off the bench in Game 5, and Minnesota won.

No one stepped up in Game 5, and it lost. Several players chipped in, and Minnesota scored 113. But I don’t want to count on multiple role players to step up and score enough to send the T-wolves total over this mark.