NBA Playoff Best Bets (May 1): Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Lakers Game 6 Picks and Props

This simple No. 4 vs. No. 5 seed matchup between the Los Angeles Lakers and Houston Rockets could go on to be the most epic first-round series in the history of the NBA Playoffs. No team has ever overcome a 3-0 deficit to win a series, but if the Rockets can take care of business in Los Angeles tonight, they’ll have a chance to do just that.

First things first, of course. The Rockets have to beat the Lakers in LA, a task that is always easier said than done. Each team will be down a superstar, as Kevin Durant has been ruled out for the Rockets and Luka Dončić has been ruled out for the Lakers once again.

Photo by Andrew Lahodynskyj/Getty Images)

A win by the Rockets would make for a great story, but great stories aren’t always the best bets for a game. Let’s take a look at the odds for this contest and discuss some betting options.

NBA Playoffs Best Bets: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Houston Rockets (Odds & Prediction)

• Spread: Los Angeles Lakers +3.5 (-110) | Houston Rockets -3.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Los Angeles Lakers +135 | Houston Rockets -160
• Total: O/U 205.5 (-110/-110)

Odds via Bet365

Let’s Make History

The historical significance of this game and series is fascinating. Since 1947, a team has taken a 3-0 series lead in the NBA playoffs 160 times. Of those 160 series, teams closed out 98 in four games, 47 in five, 11 in six, and four in seven (LandofBasketball).

By winning Game 4, the odds improved a little for Houston. Over the years, 13 teams (of 287) came back from a 1-3 deficit to win their series (4.3%). By winning Game 5, their odds improved to 15% (37 of 246) (basketball-reference). If it gets to 3-3, the odds improve to 50% (101-101).

Despite their struggles in the first three games, the Rockets are favored to win (-160 at bet365). But the public does not seem to be convinced that Houston can do it. Only 48% of moneyline tickets and 17% of the handle are on the Rockets.

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NBA Playoffs Game 6 Preview: Rockets vs. Lakers

Houston acquired Kevin Durant in the offseason because it was clear in last year's postseason that this very good defensive team needed a solid scoring threat. Last season, its offense ranked No. 13 at 114.3 points per game; this season, it averaged 115.2 points per game and ranked No. 18.

So, the expected benefit never really materialized, making it easier for the Rockets to move on in this series without him (like they have). But to turn this series into a real competition, they had to regroup after the loss in Game 3 and get back to doing what they do best — play defense.

And it worked.

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Over the last two games, the Rockets earned the fifth-best defensive rating at 103.3. The Lakers came in at No. 12 with a 116.3 rating. Los Angeles benefited greatly from role players stepping up in the first three games of the series. In Games 4 and 5, the Rockets shut the Lakers down, forcing LeBron James to carry the load.

Five years ago, he would have been enough. But now, this deep into a series, not so much.

The return of Austin Reaves didn’t bring the boost that fans were hoping for in Game 5. But we should expect rust after a lengthy layoff (he shot 25% from the floor). However, he still chipped in 22 points, the second-most on the team, next to LeBron James (25).

My Pick: Rockets ML (-160, Bet365)

Playing at home and with momentum from winning the last two games, all signs are pointing to a Rockets win. With how well the Houston defense is playing, getting Reaves back may not be enough to save the Lakers' stagnant offense. It will be another defense-first game, so give the under some serious thought as well.

But Houston is playing as they should have from the start of the series. It’ll win at home and force a Game 7.

Lakers vs. Rockets Props

Odds via Bet365

• First Half Total: Under 105.5 (-110)

This game has featured a defense-oriented approach from the start. If the Lakers had gotten Dončić back, the over may have been the way to go. The first half has finished under this total in four of five games. With both teams missing their best offensive weapon and Houston’s defense playing so well over the last two games, we will not see a high-scoring first half tonight.

• Austin Reaves, Under 23.5 Points (-112)

Yes, he scored 22 in Game 5. If you think he’ll be better tonight after knocking the rust off, take the over. But I’m banking on some of the rust still being there, Houston not sending him to the line so much (12 for 13 in Game 5), and the Rockets defense not letting him win the game for LA.

• Luke Kennard, Under 8.5 Points (-120)

Kennard was the popular guy in the clubhouse after standout performances in Games 1 and 2. But there was a regression to the norm over the last three games. He only took four shots in Game 5 and will probably not take more than that tonight. The Lakers have other players they’d rather see with the ball.