Key Points
- SJ breaks down her favorite bets and predictions for the April 27 matchup between the Pacers and Bucks!
Tonight marks game four between the
Indiana Pacers
(2-1) and the
Milwaukee Bucks
(1-2).
(Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
A rematch of last year, the Bucks aim for redemption after the Pacers went on to take the series. Damian Lillard has returned from a blood clot injury. However, it's been rough. Rightfully so, Lillard hasn't had ample time to return to the proper conditioning needed to sustain heavy playoff minutes.
With the Pacers dominating with a combined +27 point differential, the Bucks stole game three at home, 117-101. In a best of seven games series, it's vital for the Bucks to even up the series before heading back to Indiana.
The last game was unpredictable, as Gary Trent Jr. exploded for a career-high 37 points, tying a franchise record with nine 3-pointers! As predicted, Giannis Antetokounmpo poured in 37 points. Dominating the Pacers by 16 points, the Bucks looked as good as they could. Although Lillard struggled mightily, shooting 2-12 for 12 points.
Holding the Pacers to under 44 percent from the field and 3-point line, the Bucks's bench produced 27 points for Doc River. A team that struggled to score 100 points in game one shot 47.2 percent from the line, and 36.6 percent from beyond the arc.
The real difference was the paint and rebound domination for the Bucks.
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Odds Are Current As Of April 27 AT 10 A.M. ET
If you're betting on Pacers vs Bucks game four, welcome back! Set to tip-off off at 9:3o p.m. ET, the matchup will air on TNT and Max.
Let's stay hot, and finish out the month strong! 4.5 point spread favorites at home, will the Bucks even the series? Or will the Pacers take a 3-1 lead on the road?
In this article features my top bets, player prop picks, and predictions for game four of the NBA playoffs, featuring the Pacers and Bucks!
NBA Playoffs Bets: Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks BetMGM Betting Odds For April 27
MONEYLINE
- INDIANA PACERS: +155
- MILWAUKEE BUCKS: -190
SPREAD
- INDIANA PACERS: +4.5 (-110)
- MILWAUKEE BUCKS: -4.5 (-110)
OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)
- OVER: 226.5 (-110)
- UNDER: 226.5 (-110)
2025 NBA Playoffs H2H Matchups: Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks
- Game 1: April 19 ,2025: Pacers 117, Bucks 98 (Indiana -6, under 227.5)
- Game 2: April 22, 2025: Pacers 123, Bucks 115 (Indiana -4.5, over 228.5)
- Game 3: April 25, 2025: Bucks 117, Pacers 101 (Milwaukee -4.5, under 229)
Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks Injury Report
PACERS
- Isaiah Jackson, F: OUT
- Bennedict Mathurin, G: Questionable
BUCKS
- Tyler Smith, F: Questionable
*Odds are courtesy of BetMGM*
Player Prop Best Bet #1: Damian Lillard
Damian Lillard 2025 NBA Playoffs Stats
PPG: 10.5 | FG: 24 % | FT: 85.7 % | 3PT: 18.8 % | REB: 3.0 | AST: 6.0 | STL: 1.0 | BLK: 1.0
- Over 6.5 Assists (+112 FanDuel)
My first bet bet for tonight, I placed one unit on Bucks star
Damian Lillard
to record over 6.5 assists against the Pacers.
It's obvious Lillard has struggled in two post season games, and it's not his fault. Healing from a blood clot, Lillard has been disastrous over the first two games. With minimal time to condition, he's been thrown immediately into the fire.
Shooting 24 percent from the field, and 18.8 percent from deep is not serious, nor is it indicative of how well Lillard plays. Healthy or not, I'm not banking of Lillard to come out the gate and score 25+ points today. Healing takes time, and the Pacers play at an extremely fast pace (98.17)
Until Lillard shows signs of improved health and conditioning, I'll take him for over 6.5 assists for plus money here. Coming off five dimes, seven assists in his first game back was encouraging. Not to mention, the Bucks have unlocked a shooting weapon in Gary Trent Jr.
This Player Prop Bet Has Incredible Value
Averaging 10 potential assists through two playoff games, 16.3 average points are coming off assists from Lillard. Although more of a combo guard, the Pacers give up over nine assists to point guards.
Not to mention, Lillard has soared over 7+ assists in four of the last six head-to-head matchups against the Pacers. In that span, that's an average of 8.2 dimes per game.
If Lillard can get the pick and roll going with Giannis, h's averaging 15 passes to Antetokounmpo per game, which has resulted in 6.5 field goal attempts (61.5 field goal %). The ability to find Bobby Portis Jr on the perimeter, along with Brook Lopez will be vital for this prop tonight.
Final NBA Playoffs Best Bet Pick and Prediction: Damian Lillard Over 6.5 Assists (+112 FanDuel)
In two playoff games alone with Lillard, Portis is averaging 4.0 field goal attempts from Lillard, including well over two three-point attempts per game.
Look for Lillard to continue to distribute the ball if the shots simply aren't falling. After all, Lillard ranked No. 9 in the NBA in the regular season with 13 potential assists per game.
- In a must win game, I'm taking Damian Lillard to record over 6.5 assists today.
Player Prop Best Bet #2: Pascal Siakam
Pascal Siakam 2025 NBA Playoffs Stats
PPG: 25.7 | FG: 60 % | FT: 81.8 % | 3PT: 57.1 % | REB: 7.7 | AST: 2.3 | STL: 2.0 | BLK: 0.3
- Over 1.5 Made Threes (-120 FanDuel)
My second best bet for tonight's matchup, I placed one unit on Pacers forward
Pascal Siakam
to record over 1.5 made threes.
The Pacers leading scorer in the Playoffs (25.7 PPG), Siakam has been incredible for the Pacers. I've bet on Siakam in the past, and I'll continue to. Plus, how can I fade a player who's shooting 57.1 percent from beyond the arc?
Siakam may not be the leader in 3-point attempts, but 4.7 attempts at over 57 percent is strong evidence this prop can soar over tonight. Not to mention, he's making 2.7 trey balls per game in the series against the Bucks.
Speaking of Milwaukee, it's no secret Siakam has lit up their defense for quite some time. Recording 2+ 3-pointers in six consecutive head-to-head outings, he's averaged 2.7 trey balls over that span.
Pascal Siakam Has Been Dominant Against The Bucks
And with that, we know the Bucks allowed the third most 3-point attempts to forwards in the regular season. To back that up, Siakam had the most 3-point attempts against Milwaukee than any other team in the NBA this year.
Although Siakam doesn't put up a ton of deep ball shots, he leads the Pacers with 16.7 field goal attempts per game. Yet to fall under this prop line, I'm sure it will increase, so grab it early!
Ironically, the Pacers continue to run their offense through Siakam, in which he's put up 77 points on 14 three-point attempts in the series. With Siakam accounting for nearly 13 percent of the Pacers 3-point attempts, this is a team that puts up a ton of offense.
No. 5 in offensive rating (115.2), the Pacers are putting up the third most points in the playoffs with 113.7. Not to mention, Siakam is a crucial reason why Indiana is shooting 37.8 percent from beyond the arc.
With three consecutive games of 24+ points, I'm not fading him here. Especially a player who's shot nearly 40 percent beyond the arc on the road.
Final NBA Playoffs Best Bet Pick and Prediction: Pascal Siakam Over 1.5 Made Threes (-120 FanDuel)
Siakam shot 75 percent from deep, and hasn't fallen below in the series. With a ton of weapons on the Pacers, Siakam makes the shots count when it matters. The Pacers play at an extremely fast paced, and there will be plenty of buckets for Indiana. Plus, the Pacers are one of the best in spacing the floor with Siakam and Myles Turner.
- When I think of pick and pop, I think of Siakam. I'm taking Pascal Siakam to record over 1.5 made threes tonight.
Player Prop Best Bet #3: Kyle Kuzma
Kyle Kuzma 2025 NBA Playoffs Stats
PPG: 7.0| FG: 37.5 % | FT: 50 % | 3PT: 14.3 % | REB: 2.0 | AST: 1.0 | STL: 0.0 | BLK: 0.3
- Over 9.5 Points (-125 FanDuel)
This may not be the most popular pick, but I bet one unit on Bucks wingman
Kyle Kuzma
to record over 9.5 points tonight.
Kuzma became a talking point of the NBA after not recording a single point in game one. In game two, he bounced back with 12 points in 31 minutes. Shooting 5-10 from the field in game two, Kuzma delivered nine points in game three.
Here's the bottom line. I know Kuzma has been atrocious from the 3-point line, shooting 14.3 percent. To make matters worse, he's shooting 50 percent from the charity stripe, and 37.5 percent from the field.
Kuzma has been a bit of a disappointment since his arrival in Milwaukee, but now is the time to show why they traded for him. Tonight is a must win game, and it's unlikely Gary Trent Jr. will repeat his career performance. With Lillard struggling after return from injury, Kuzma has no choice but to step up.
There's optimism Kuzma hasn't fallen out of Doc Rivers rotation, and has averaged 24.7 minutes in the series. Although the fifth scoring option, Kuzma has still manage to record 8.0 field goal attempts per game. If the shooting woes go away, there's great optimism this prop soars over.
Averaging nine points in three games against the Pacers this season, Kuzma soared over this line in nearly 80 percent of games this year. Not to mention, he's averaged 10.6 points over the last five games.
Final NBA Playoffs Best Bet Pick and Prediction: Kyle Kuzma Over 9.5 Points (-125 FanDuel)
I do believe that first game was an anomaly. The Pacers allow over 20 points a game as it is to small forwards.
Overall, Kuzma has scored 21 points in the playoffs off 24 field goal attempts. 1-7 from 3-point, look for Kuzma to get back on track.
- I'm riding with Kyle Kuzma to record over 9.5 points tonight.
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