Tonight marks the start of the Eastern Conference Semifinals between the No.4 Indiana Pacers and No.1 Cleveland Cavaliers. In a best of seven game series, the Cavaliers are -550 favorites to win the series.
(Photo by Stephen Gosling/NBAE via Getty Images)
The Pacers enter Game 1 as 8.0 point underdogs on the road. Having won the regular season series 3-1, they face the hottest team in the NBA —The Cavaliers. The Cavaliers were dominant in several facets because history doesn't happen by accident.
Sweeping the Heat 4-0, the Pacers' +155-point differential was the largest among any team in NBA playoff history. Winning each game by double figures, the Pacers will certainly have their hands full. With the Cavaliers winning 65+ games in the regular season, I do find it perplexing that the Pacers not only won the regular season series but were also victorious on the road (twice).
Indiana got away with another matchup with an ailing Milwaukee Bucks for the second consecutive year. Without Damian Lillard at full strength, the Pacers finished a 4-1 gentleman's sweep over the Bucks. One of the most gritty teams in the NBA under head coach Rick Carlisle, the Pacers play at an extremely fast pace. With Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam at the helm, how well can the Pacers keep up with the Cavaliers with such depth?
It's important to note that Cavaliers guard Darius Garland remains questionable with a toe injury. His ability to suit up will greatly impact the matchup tonight.
We are in for an intense series between both teams. Sit back and enjoy the ride since the best of seven series can be a long or short one!
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Odds Are Current As Of May 4 AT 9 A.M. ET
Are you looking to bet on the NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals between the Indiana Pacers and Cleveland Cavaliers? If so, welcome! It's the start of a new series, so let's give it our best go!
Game 1 between both teams is scheduled to tip-off at 6 p.m. ET on TNT, truTv and Max.
Here are my best bets, predictions, and player prop plays for the May 4 Game 1 matchup featuring the Pacers and Cavaliers.
NBA Playoffs Bets: Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland Cavaliers Game 1 BetMGM Betting Odds For May 4
MONEYLINE
- INDIANA PACERS: +275
- CLEVELAND CAVALIERS: -350
SPREAD
- INDIANA PACERS: +8.5 (-115)
- CLEVELAND CAVALIERS: -8.5 (-105)
OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)
- OVER: 230.5 (-105)
- UNDER: 230.5 (-115)
2024-2025 Regular Season H2H Matchups: Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland Cavaliers
- January 12, 2025: Pacers 108, Cavaliers 93 (Indiana +9, under 239)
- January 14, 2024: Cavaliers 127, Pacers 117 (Cleveland -8, over 230)
- April 10, 2025: Pacers 114, Cavaliers 112 (Cleveland +10, under 234.5)
- April 13, 2025: Pacers 126, Cavaliers 118 (OT) (Indiana -7, over 226.5 )
Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland Cavaliers Injury Report
PACERS
- Isaiah Jackson, F: OUT (Achilles)
CAVALIERS
- Darius Garland, G: Questionable (Toe)
*Odds are courtesy of BetMGM*
Player Prop Best Bet #1: Donovan Mitchell
Donovan Mitchell 2025 NBA Playoffs Stats
PPG: 23.8 | FG: 47.8 % | FT: 72.2 % | 3PT: 45.7 % | REB: 3.3 | AST: 4.0 | STL: 1.5 | BLK: 0.0
- Over 26.5 Points (-120 FanDuel)
My first best bet for tonight, I place one unit on Cavaliers star
Donovan Mitchell
to record over 26.5 points in Game 1 vs the Pacers.
Backcourt mate Darius Garland is questionable to lace up tonight with a toe injury. Even if he suits up, will Garland be at full strength? He hasn't played since Game 2 vs the Miami Heat on 4/23. Either way, I'm picking Mitchell to lead the helm.
Having much depth, the Cavaliers were always the superior team over the Heat. With that said Cleveland simply didn't need Mitchell to score 30+ points consistently.
- Averaging 23.8 points in the first round, he eclipsed the 30 point mark twice. In fact, Mitchell soared over 26.5 points in two of the four games against Miami.
What makes Cleveland so dangerous is their defense. Aside from that, they have several moving parts. It starts with Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland in the backcourt. However, the Cavaliers have several heavy hitters with Ty Jerome, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen, and so forth.
Even so, I would imagine the Cavaliers want to set the tone at home tonight. Scoring 30 points in Game 1 against Miami, Mitchell will get another shot at that tonight. Not to mention, he's the Cavaliers leading scorer in the playoffs if we take Garland's injury into account.
- Leading the Cavaliers in shot attempts (17.3), Mitchell has been a flamethrower in the postseason. Shooting 45.7 percent from beyond the arc, he'll look to keep that going in this series.
The Cavaliers offense is clicking on all cylinders, scoring a total of 504 points in four games against Miami. That said, Mitchell accounted for nearly 19 percent of the Cavalier's total offense in the first round.
- The Pacers are a much superior team compared to Miami, however, their defense has been a bit shaky.
Can Donovan Mitchell Lead The Cavaliers To The NBA Finals?
Through the playoffs, the Pacers rank No. 8 in defensive rating (111.1), allowing the third most points with 110.2 points in the playoffs. Mind you, the Bucks are a talented team. How will the Pacers fare against the Cavaliers, who boast the No.1. offensive rating in the NBA playoffs (136.2)?
The Pacers defense has been questionable the last few years, and regressed slightly last season. I will say, regardless of their rank, Indiana was one of the more superior defensive teams down the stretch.
- Post All-Star game, the Pacers ranked No. 8 in defensive rating. Although coming out victorious in game 1, the Bucks averaged 113.3 points.
Historically, Donovan Mitchell has performed extremely well against the Pacers. Clearing 26.5 points in four of five games against Indiana, Mitchell averaged 33 points in the last five head-to-head matchups with Indiana. Over that span, we've seen Mitchell explode for 40, 38, and 33 points. Not to mention, Indy allowed nearly 24 points to guards in the regular season.
Overall, the Pacers have defensive pests in Andrew Nembhard and T.J McConnell that can disrupt the offense. The question remains—Not how can the Pacers stop Mitchell, what will Kenny Atkinson's offensive plan be for the Cavaliers?
Could Mitchell be primed for a monstrous game 1 with or without Garland? Only averaging 31 minutes in the first round against Miami, Atkinson may ask for more of Garland this series.
- Failing to reach the NBA Finals the last eight seasons, the offensive production starts and ends with Mitchell. To add to that, Mitchell has a upside matchup against Tyrese Haliburton.
Final NBA Playoffs Best Bet Pick and Prediction: Donovan Mitchell Over 26.5 Points (-120 FanDuel)
Although the Cavaliers had a slightly different roster, we saw Mitchell carry the ailing Cavaliers for 33 points (twice) against the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Semifinals in 2024. It's important to note Mitchell scored 30+ points in both Game 1s against the Magic and Celtics in last year's playoffs.
- The shot volume, minutes, and experience will be laying on the table for Mitchell tonight. I'm riding with Donovan Mitchell ro record over 26.5 points tonight. It's important the Cavaliers set the tone in Game 1 at home. In two games vs the Pacers this season, Mitchell averaged 27 points, and shot 37.5 percent from beyond the arc.
Player Prop Best Bet #2: Tyrese Haliburton
Tyrese Haliburton 2025 NBA Playoffs Stats
PPG: 17.6 | FG: 42.1 % | FT: 81.3 % | 3PT: 26.8 % | REB: 6.4 | AST: 11.6 | STL: 0.8 | BLK: 0.8
- 9.5 Assists (-130 FanDuel)
My second best bet for tonight, I placed one unit on Pacers guard
Tyrese Haliburton
to record over 9.5 assists tonight in Game 1 vs the Cavaliers.
We all know Haliburton had a stellar backend of the season, averaging the second most assists (11.0) in the NBA, behind Trae Young. Not to mention, Haliburton ranked No. 3 overall in the NBA with 17 potential assists per game.
- In fact, Haliburton averaged the second most potential assists post All-Star break with 19.9.
Overall, Haliburton had an up and down series against the Bucks scoring wise. However, we saw him put up some impressive numbers assists wise. One of the most crafty in facilitating the rock, Haliburton averaged 11.6 assists through five games. That included 15 assists in game four! Recording 10+ assists in four of the five games against the Bucks, I love this play for tonight.
- The Cavaliers defense is elite, there's no way to get around it. If Garland is able to suit up, the Cavaliers have a stingy backcourt with Mitchell. That said, Cleveland did allow point guards to average 8.4 dimes in the regular season.
Is Tyrese Haliburton The Best Facilitator In The NBA?
I would imagine the Cavaliers will do everything they can to contain Haliburton. That's okay with me, considering the Pacers have six players aside from Haliburton that are averaging points in double figures in the playoffs.
Whether it's the pick and roll game or driving and kicking— Haliburton has a ton of options to facilitate to. From Pascal Siakam, to Myles Turner—Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith and T.J McConnell have emerged as legitimate scoring threats for the Pacers.
- One player I would like to keep an eye on is Bennedict Mathurin, who may lost some minutes in the rotation.
Haliburton has performed best against the Cavaliers when he lets the ball fly to others.
- Recording 10+ assists in 6 of the last 7 outings against the Cavaliers, Tyrese has averaged 12.7 assists over that span against Cleveland!
Final NBA Playoffs Best Bet Pick and Prediction: Tyrese Haliburton Over 9.5 Assists (-130 FanDuel)
I personally feel this line is set too low, given his recent facilitating performance in the playoffs. Recording well over 11 assists in the first round, Haliburton is averaging 9.1 assists in 2o career-playoff games. With a high usage rate, I'm expecting Haliburton to toggle heavy minutes this series.
- The total is set for over 230 points, and given the pace the Pacers play at, I would imagine the offense will be humming. I'm taking Tyrese Haliburton to record over 9.5 assists tonight. Considered one of the most elite playmakers in the NBA, the Pacers offense runs through Haliburton.
Best Totals Bet: Pacers vs Cavaliers
- Indiana Pacers OVER 110.5 Total Points (-114 FanDuel)
My third best bet for tonight, I placed one unit on the
Indiana Pacers
to total
OVER
110.5 points tonight in Game 1 vs the Cavaliers.
I know the Pacers play high tempo basketball and score a ton of points. However, I firmly believe they will feel the wrath of the Cavaliers defense tonight. Now, let me explain why I think this is a strong play.
- The No.1. defensive team this season, the Cavaliers boast the second best defensive rating (102.7) behind the OKC Thunder. Limiting the Heat to 95.5 points in the playoffs, Miami scored over 110 points just once.
Sure, the Pacers are a much superior team to the Heat on the offensive end. In fact, they have one of the deepest, most talented benches in the NBA. One could argue the Pacers soared over this line in all but one outing against the Cavaliers.
- Don't forget, not all starters played in the regular season 126-118 shootout between these two teams.
Will The Pacers' Offense Overpower The Cavaliers' Defense?
The Cavaliers got a little lax down the stretch, allowing opponents to scorer 113.3 points post All-Star game. That said, the Pacers won the regular season series, and averaged 116.3 points in four head-to-head matchups with Cleveland.
Now tell me where the 110 points comes from? The Pacers are the one team in the East that I can see making some noise outside the Cavaliers and the Celtics. Boasting the second best offensive rating (118), Indiana is averaging 117.8 points in the playoffs.
- Not to mention, their 39.3 3-point percentage is second best behind Cleveland.
Sure, the Cavaliers will attempt to keep the Pacers off the 3-point line in this series. With such depth and talent, the Pacers are notable for scoring in unique ways. Again, this begins with Haliburton and his crafty ways of facilitating the rock.
Dating back to the regular season, the Pacers have soared under 110.5 points just twice in the last ten games. Over that span, they averaged 117 points per game.
- Post All-Star break, Indiana put up the 6th most points in the NBA with 119.8, and the 7th best field goal percentage in the league (48.8 %).
Final NBA Playoffs Best Bet Pick and Prediction: Indiana Pacers Team Total Over 110.5 Points (-114 FanDuel)
Just by the projection of point total, the Pacers will look to continue to push the pace. Averaging 116.3 points through four games against Cleveland, Indiana shot 45.1 percent from the field Mind you, those 116 points include a team that struggled from the 3-point line. In those four games, the Pacers were limited to 32.2 percent from beyond the arc!
Aside from the two massacres against the Heat, the Cavaliers have allowed opponents to score over 110.5 points in six of the last 10 games. With defense at the forefront, I do expect more scoring, considering both squads are in the top ten in teams of pace. In the Cavaliers 127-117 victory over Indiana earlier this season, 12 teams from both teams finished with points in double-figures.
- I'm going with the Indiana Pacers to score over 110.5 points tonight.
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