It's the moment bettors have been waiting for. Tonight marks Game 7 between the Golden State Warriors and the Houston Rockets.
(Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
The series will return to Houston, where the Rockets finished No. 2 in the West. Facing the No. 7 Warriors, Steph Curry and company will have quite the task on the road. With a 25-19 road record, the Warriors are 2.5 point spread underdogs tonight.
It's been an entertaining series, one full of chippiness. It's also been back and forth and a series where we've seen a mixture of low and high scoring. Warriors star Jimmy Butler is nowhere near close to full health. Will he step up again?
I'm expecting tonight's matchup to be intense. Considering Draymond Green received a flagrant foul last matchup, the games have been physical.
Avoiding elimination, the Rockets overcame a 3-1 deficit and took the last two games. It's been six seasons since the Rockets had relevance in the NBA playoffs. Can head coach Ime Udoka lead this young team deep into the playoffs? Three years removed from a NBA Finals title, can the Warriors regain their power under Steve Kerr?
Either way, it's win or go home for both squads!
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Odds Are Current As Of May 4 AT 8 A.M. ET
If you plan to bet on the NBA playoffs and game 7 between the Warriors and Rockets, welcome back! The month just began, so let's continue to stay strong!
It's the playoffs, so I've played each bet as a straight wager. Depending on my bankroll, I've placed .5-1 unit on each play.
Set tip-off at 8:30 p.m. ET, the Warriors and Rockets game 7 matchup will air on TNT, truTV, and Max.
Here are my best player prop bets and predictions for the May 4 game 7 NBA matchup featuring the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets.
NBA Playoffs Bets: Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets BetMGM Betting Odds For May 4
MONEYLINE
- GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS: +115
- HOUSTON ROCKETS: -140
SPREAD
- GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS: +2.5
- HOUSTON ROCKETS: -2.5
OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)
- OVER: 205.5 (-110)
- UNDER: 205.5 (-110)
2025 NBA Playoffs H2H Matchups: Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets
- Game 1: April 23, 2025: Warriors 95, Rockets 85 (Golden State +2, under 213)
- Game 2: April 23, 2025: Rockets 109, Warriors 94 (Houston -4, under 204.5)
- Game 3: April 26, 2025: Warriors 104, Rockets 93 (Golden State -1.5, under 205)
- Game 4: April 29, 2025: Warriors 109, Rockets 106 (Houston +3.5, over 203.5)
- Game 5: April 30, 2025: Rockets 131, Warriors 116 (Houston -4, over 203)
- Game 6: Rockets 115, Warriors 107 (Houston +5.5, over 208.5)
Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets Injury Report
WARRIORS
- Jock Landale, Center: OUT
- Jae'sean Tate, SF: OUT
ROCKETS
*Odds are courtesy of BetMGM*
Player Prop Best Bet #1: Steph Curry
Steph Curry 2025 NBA Playoffs Stats
PPG: 24.3 | FG: 46.7 % | FT: 88.5 % | 3PT: 39.1 % | REB: 5.2 | AST: 5.5 | STL: 1.0 | BLK: 0.7
- Over 26.5 Points (-122 FanDuel)
My first bet for tonight, I placed one unit on Warriors star
Steph Curry
to record over 26.5 Points.
This is a corporate, popular pick. However, how can I fade Curry in a must win game 7 elimination!?
No one has been here more than Steph Curry, a player that's averaging over 32 points per game in Game 7s. In fact, his name is in the mix with Michael Jordan, LeBron James, and Kevin Durant, and ranks top 5 in scoring in Game 7s.
In five game 7s, Curry has faced the Clippers, Thunder, Cavaliers, and Kings. Ironically, the Warriors met the Rockets in Game 7 in 2018. Although two vastly different squads, Curry put up 27 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 10.0 assists.
Curry has been the Warriors leading scorer by far in the playoffs with 24.3 points per game. With Butler hurt, his performances have been a hit or miss. Aside from Brandin Podziemski and Moses Moody, the support cast behind Curry has been underwhelming to say the least.
Scoring 145 points in 222 this postseason, Curry accounts for over 23 percent of the Warriors offense! Not to mention, he's taken a total of 64 shots, including shooting 39.1 percent from beyond the arc.
It's Impossible To Fade Steph Curry In A Must Win Game 7
Overall, Curry has soared over this player prop bet in three of the six games against the Rockets (29, 30, 21). Coming off a 29 point performance, Curry logged a full 42 minutes. In the matchup, he shot 6-16 from deep! You heard that right, 16 3-point attempts!
With Curry and Butler combining for 56 points, the remaining starters scored an abysmal 13 points. Although Steve Kerr opted to rest some of his starters, and dig deep into the bench for game six.
We can forget Curry's 13 performance in the Warriors 131-116 game five loss against Houston. Sure, the Warriors are on the road, however, Curry cooked up the Rockets for 31 points on the road in game 1.
We know in the regular season, the Rockets gave up the most points to point guards in the NBA.
There's no one I trust more than Curry in a game 7 win or go home scenario. The Rockets have relied on their defensive prowess to mainly win games. However, I'm not expecting Curry to leave the court much today.
Final NBA Playoffs Best Bet Pick and Prediction: Steph Curry Over 26.5 Points (-122 FanDuel)
Leading the Warriors in field goal attempts (17.5) and 3-point attempts (10.7), Curry will put up a ton of shots tonight. Don't be surprised if Curry attacks down hill more. After all, he went 5-6 from the charity stripe in game 6.
3-2 all time in Game 7s. Curry soared over 26.5 points in four of them. The only team that held him to under points (17) was Cleveland in 2016.
- I'm riding with Steph Curry to record over 26.5 points in a must-win game tonight.
Player Prop Best Bet #2: Fred VanVleet
Fred VanVleet 2025 NBA Playoffs Stats
PPG: 19 | FG: 42.5 % | FT: 100 % | 3PT: 42,9 % | REB: 3.7 | AST: 4.7 | STL: 0.3 | BLK: 0.8
- Over 16.5 Points (-130 FanDuel)
My second best bet for tonight, I placed one unit on Rockets guard
Fred VanVleet
to record over 16.5 points tonight against the Warriors.
Signing with the Rockets after winning a championship with the Toronto Raptors, VanVleet knows what it takes to win. With that said, this isn't his first rodeo against the Warriors. VanVleet and the Raptors defeated the Warriors in six games the year they won their first NBA Championship (2019). Aforementioned, the rosters were vastly different.
However, VanVleet soared over 16.5 points in two of them, logging 17 and 22 against Golden State.
Now VanVleet leads a young team, one in which he was the third leading scorer in the regular season with 14.1 points per game. Since, that has changed tremendously. Aside from center Alperen Sengun, VanVleet has stepped up entirely in the postseason. The Rockets second leading scorer in the playoffs with 19 points per game, he's been sensational.
With 17 combined points in Games 1 and 2, VanVleet has emerged as the Rockets leading scorer over the last two games. Coming off an incredible 29 point performance, he shot 7-13 from the field, and 9-9 in the charity stripe.
Can Fred VanVleet Lead The Rockets To A Game 7 Victory Over the Warriors?
I'll call it as I see it. Golden State couldn't stop VanVleet, who was a flame thrower beyond the arc. Shooting 6-9 from downtown, it was VanVleet's four point play in the final quarter that propelled the Rockets to a 115-107 game 5 victory.
Shooting 100 percent from the free-throw line, VanVleet has sunk all 22 shots at the charity stripe. A crucial x-factor in their last two wins, VanVleet has a combined 55 points in the last two games! Pouring in 26 points in their last home matchup, the Rockets get another shot in Houston tonight.
Overall, VanVleet is an underrated player in the NBA. Though he averaged just over 14 points per game, he's come alive when it matters. With the ability to take over games, he's shooting an impeccable 42.9 percent from beyond the arc in the series!
Scoring 114 points through 236 minutes, volume and playing time won't be an issue tonight. VanVleet hasn't played under 40 minutes aside from 33 in game five. With 80 field goal and 56 3-point attempts, he's accounting for nearly 18 percent of the Rocket's offense!
Final NBA Playoffs Best Bet Pick and Prediction: Fred VanVleet Over 16.5 Points (-130 FanDuel)
Houston's rotation will sure shrink tonight. With that, I expect Udoka to rely on his main players. While the Rockets have depth, and lots of young stars, VanVleet is averaging 13.3 field goal attempts, and leads the team with with 9.3 trey balls taken per game in the series. Not to mention, VanVleet needs continue his brilliance at the charity stripe.
- I'm going with the veteran, Fred VanVleet, to record over 16.5 points tonight. Soaring over this player prop line in four straight games this series, VanVleet is averaging 24.3 points over the last four outings.
Player Prop Best Bet #3: Jalen Green
Jalen Green 2025 NBA Playoffs Stats
PPG: 14.2 | FG: 37.2 % | FT: 66.7 % | 3PT: 31 % | REB: 3.2 | AST: 5.7 | STL: 0.7 | BLK: 0.2
- Over 7.5 Rebounds + Assists (+116 FanDuel)
My third best bet for tonight, I placed one unit on Rockets guard
Jalen Green
to record over 7.5 rebounds and assists for +116 odds.
The Rockets regular season scorer with 21 points per game, Green has struggled greatly in the playoffs. Aside from a 38 point eruption in game 1, he's averaged just 14.1 points through six games. Thats okay, since the Rockets have haven proven winners with Alperen Sengun and Fred VanVleet at the helm. That's why I have Green for 7.5 rebounds and assists.
Jalen Green is still a strong starter for the Rockets, and although underperforming, he won't fall out of rotation. With that said, tonight marks the first game 7 of his career. Just 6 foot 4, he's been essential on the glass, grabbing 13 boards in the last two games. Not to mention, Green has soared over this line in six of the last seven matchups against the Warriors.
The points and scoring may not be there right now, but that's why I picked this prop. Green has often impressed in ways that often don't show up in the box score, and some that do. Averaging 8.9 rebounds and assists in the playoffs, he's coming off a 8-rebound, 3-assists game 6 performance against the Warriors.
Final NBA Playoffs Best Bet Pick and Prediction: Jalen Green Over 7.5 Rebounds + Assists (+116 FanDuel)
The Warriors lack size, ranking No. 12 in the NBA playoffs with 39.8 rebounds per game. Plus Golden State allowed just over 11 rebounds and assists to shooting guards this season.
Although his minutes have dropped slightly, this has been the only categories Green has shown consistency in. Averaging 31.5 minutes in the playoffs, this prop is hard to pass up for plus money.
- With that said, I'm taking Jalen Green to record over 7.5 rebounds and assists tonight.
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