Key Points
- SJ gives her favorite bets and predictions for the Game 1 matchup between the Warriors and Timberwolves
It's official. The Western Conference Semifinals have arrived! Buckle up, bettors— there's a highly anticipated matchup between the No. 7
Golden State Warriors
and No. 6
Minnesota Timberwolves.
Photo Credit: Getty Images
The Golden State Warriors nearly blew a 3-1 lead but overcame a Game 7 victory over the Houston Rockets, thanks to
Buddy Hield's enormous 33 point performance!
For Minnesota, the Timberwolves sent LeBron James, Luka Doncic, and the Los Angeles Lakers to Cancun after a 4-1 series victory. An unlikely hero, Rudy Goebert exploded for 27 points and 24 points to propel the Timberwolves into the next round.
The Timberwolves head into Game 1 as 6.5 point spread favorites against the Warriors at home. With slim -190 odds to win the series, this should be an exciting one!
Golden State won the regular season series 3-1, yet finished as a Play-In Tournament team as the No. 7 seed. Don't let that fool you, there was a one game difference that separated the records of these two squads.
We are in for a real treat this series. Who wouldn't want to bet and watch a matchup that headlines Steph Curry vs Anthony Edwards? After all, it was Edwards who preferred the Warriors because of 'Draymond Green.'
The best of seven games, enjoy! The 'Ant Man' Anthony Edwards has yet to face this newly revamped Warriors team featuring Jimmy Butler. Plus, these two squads haven't faced off since January.
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Odds Are Current As Of May 6 AT 8 A.M. ET
If you're looking to bet on Game 1 of the Western Conference Semifinals featuring the Warriors and Timberwolves, welcome!
Tip-off is set for 9:30 p.m. ET, and the matchup will air on TNT, truTV, and Max.
In this article are my three best player prop bets and picks for the May 6 Game 1 matchup between the Golden State Warriors and Minnesota Timberwolves.
*I did not parlay my bets.*
NBA Playoffs Bets: Golden State Warriors vs Minnesota Timberwolves Game 1 BetMGM Betting Odds For May 6
MONEYLINE
- GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS: +220
- MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES: -275
SPREAD
- GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS: +6.5 (-110)
- MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES: -6.5 (-110)
OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)
- OVER: 210.5 (-110)
- UNDER: 210.5 (-110)
2024-2025 Regular Season H2H Matchups: Golden State Warriors vs Minnesota Timberwolves
- December 6, 2024: Timberwolves 107, Warriors 90 (Minnesota -1.5, under 220)
- December 8, 2024: Warriors 114, Timberwolves 106 (Golden State -1.5, over 216)
- December 21, 2024: Warriors 113, Timberwolves 103 (Golden State +4, under 218)
- January 15, 2o25: Warriors 116, Timberwolves 115 (Golden State +7, over 217)
Golden State Warriors vs Minnesota Timberwolves Injury Report
WARRIORS
- Gary Payton II, SG: Questionable
TIMBERWOLVES
- Rob Dillingham, G: OUT
*Odds are courtesy of BetMGM*
Player Prop Best Bet #1: Brandin Podziemski
Brandin Podziemski 2025 NBA Playoffs Stats
PPG: 11 | FG: 38.4 % | FT: 66.7 % | 3PT: 34.1 % | REB: 4.1 | AST: 3.0 | STL: 0.9 | BLK: 0.3
- Over 1.5 Made Threes (-175 DraftKings)
My first best bet for tonight, I placed one unit on Warriors guard
Brandin Podziemski
to record over 1.5 made threes vs the Timberwolves in Game 1.
I know Podziemski has had a tumultuos season shooting wise, yet managed to score a career-high 11.7 points in his second NBA season.
In the starting lineup in the backcourt alongside Steph Curry, the Warriors face a stingy Minnesota defense.
- Although one that allowed 3.3 3-pointers to shooting guards this season!
The Warriors third leading scorer (11 PPG) behind Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler in the playoffs, Podziemski hasn't exactly put up breath taking shooting performances.
- That said, he's shooting an underwhelming 38.4 percent from the field, and 34.1 percent from beyond the arc.
We know if the Warriors have a shot at winning this series, they will need Steph Curry to continue to lead the team. Defeating a young Houston Rockets team wasn't all that impressive. However, Houston had an elite defense.
There's the reason why the Warriors are the top 3-point shooting team in the playoffs.
- Their 43.1 trey ball attempts per game is most in the NBA, and average 15.4 deep shots per game.
Can The Warriors Return To The NBA Finals?
While Curry is primarily responsible for the famous three balls, Podziemski is the second leading player on the Warriors with 6.3 per game. Although a 34.1 3-point percentage is underwhelming, the volume is there.
- Plus, he's averaging 2.1 3-pointers made in the playoffs.
Soaring over this line in three of the last four games, Podziemski has totaled 77 points on 44 3-point attempts in seven playoff games. Sure, his percentages have been streaky— he's coming off a 1-7 shooting performance.
With Buddy Hield now back in the picture, the landscape may change for Podziemski.
- However, it's encouraging he shot 50 percent from beyond the arc in three regular season matchups against the Timberwolves (8.7 PPG).
In the playoffs, Minnesota allowed the Lakers to shoot 35.1 percent from deep, and is allowing the 12th most 3-pointers in the playoffs (38.8). They are one of the more efficient teams in guarding the perimeter— so this is something to look out for.
Final NBA Playoffs Best Bet Pick and Prediction: Brandin Podiemski Over 1.5 Made Threes (-175 DraftKings)
A lot of the attention will be on Steph Curry, and Hield, who's coming off 33 points. And then of course, Butler. With 13 3-point attempts over the last two matchups, volume isn't an issue for Podziemski. Plus, he's coming off 40 minutes, and averaged 30.3 minutes in the Houston series.
Overall, Podziemski is atop of the supporting cast around Curry and Butler. With 11 3-pointers over the last four games, I'm not fading this tonight. Although a bit juiced, there's still value there.
- I'm riding with Brandin Podziemski to record over 1.5 made threes tonight.
Player Prop Best Bet #2: Naz Reid
Naz Reid 2025 NBA Playoffs Stats
PPG: 11.6 | FG: 52.6 % | FT: 63.6 % | 3PT: 50 % | REB: 3.8 | AST: 1.4 | STL: 0.6 | BLK: 1.0
- Over 15.5 Points + Rebounds (-112 FanDuel)
My second best bet for tonight, I placed one unit on Timberwolves center
Naz Reid
to record over 15.5 points and rebounds in Game 1 against the Warriors.
- Reid is emerged as one of the most important x-factors for the Timberwolves off the bench. It's shown with a career-high average of 14.2 points per game.
Scoring just three points for Minnesota in their Game 5 performance, there was a reason for the underwhelming performance. Rudy Gobert exploded for 27 points and 24 rebounds! Prior to that, Reid and Julius Randle accounted for most of the scoring in the front court. Gobert had a total of 14 points in Games 1 through 4.
The Timberwolves's fourth leading scorer off the bench behind Edwards, Randle, and Jaden McDaniels in the playoffs, Reid is one of Chris Finch's most trusted role players. Not to mention, Reid has provided that much needed spark for the Timberwolves all season long.
Averaging 24 minutes in the first round, I'm expecting Reid to be a large contributor in this series. Totaling 58 points in 120 minutes, he's put up 38 total field goal attempts, and 22 from long range.
- We are talking about a big man that's shooting 52.6 percent from the field, and 50 percent from three!
Is Naz Reid The Ultimate X-Factor For The Timberwolves?
Overall, I like this player prop bet from a points perspective alone. Scoring 11+ points in three of the last five games, we saw Reid light up the Lakers for 23 points in Game 1! 6-9 from deep, those are the type of runs he's capable of going on.
Also, Reid averaged 12.5 points alone in four regular season outings against the Warriors alone. Scoring a combined 31 points in the last two matchups against Golden State, I think this player prop is set too low. The Warriors lack height, and they play Dramond Green at the 5.
This is where I believe the Timberwolves can expose the Warriors—is in the frontcourt. The question remains, how involved will Gobert be in offensive moving forward? Not to mention, Reid has recorded 6+ rebounds in in four of the last five outings against the Warriors. Averaging 7.6 rebounds over that span, the Warriors allowed the second most boards to center's this year.
Overall, Reid hasn't been a monster on the boards, averaging 3.8 rebounds against the Lakers. Now he get's a shot against the Warriors, who struggled greatly on the rebounds against the Rockets.
Final NBA Playoffs Best Bet Pick and Prediction: Naz Reid Over 15.5 Points + Rebounds (-112 FanDuel)
Reid is such an important piece to the Timberwolves, and has soared over this player prop line in four of the last five games. Averaging 21.6 points and rebounds over that span, is this line slightly disrespectful?
The Warriors have been one of the least efficient teams on the glass, averaging just 39.6 boards in the playoffs. Compare that to Minnesota, who's averaging 43.8 rebounds in the playoffs.
- Scoring 10, 16, and nine points against the Warriors this season, Reid had 10, 6, and four rebounds. Hitting under this prop in 1/3 games, I'm taking Naz Reid to record over 15.5 points and rebounds tonight.
Player Prop Best Bet #3: Julius Randle
Julius Randle 2025 NBA Playoffs Stats
PPG: 22.6 | FG: 48.1 % | FT: 83.9 % | 3PT: 39.3 % | REB: 5.2 | AST: 4.4 | STL: 0.8 | BLK: 0.2
- Over 6.5 Rebounds (-132 FanDuel)
My last best bet for tonight, I placed one unit on Timberwolves forward
Julius Randle
to record over 6.5 rebounds tonight against the Warriors.
Randle is showing why he was traded to Minnesota in the first place by averaging 22.6 points and 5.2 rebounds in the playoffs. Overall, Randle had massive performances, putting up four consecutive 20+ point performances against the Lakers in the first round.
Although soaring over 6.5 rebounds just once, the Warriors are a different story. Aforementioned, the Warriors rank No. 12 in rebounding, averaging 39.6 boards per game. Not to mention, they allow the second most rebounds in the playoffs with 46.9 boards per game.
This is where I think Randle can expose the Warriors on the glass next to Rudy Gobert. As we've seen Rockets Alperen Sengun is coming off a 14-rebound performance. In the first round, Sengun had monstrous outings on the glass—averaging 11.9 rebounds per game.
Final NBA Playoffs Best Bet Pick and Prediction: Julius Randle Over 6.5 Rebounds (-132 FanDuel)
Given Randle will be matched up with Butler, there's a good chance of grabbing rebounds, especially since Butler loves to drive to the basket. Butler won't attempt too many shots outside, giving Randle great position in the paint.
If you're betting on this player prop, there's optimism on the horizon! In four regular season matchups against Golden State, Randle averaged 15.8 points and 8.3 rebounds. Soaring over this prop in 3/4 games, Randle recorded 9,11, 7, and 6 rebounds in those matchups.
- Overall, the Warriors lack size, where Minnesota will bring lots of it in this series! I'm taking Julius Randle to record over 6.5 rebounds in Game 1 against the Warriors.
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