NBA Playoffs: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Western Conference Semifinals Series Odds & Pick

As hard as the Los Angeles Lakers had to fight to make it past the first round for the second time in five seasons, the reward may not be one that they want: a series vs. the defending champs and No. 1 seed, the Oklahoma City Thunder. Not much of a prize, right?

The Thunder are, of course, heavy favorites to win the series, with one sportsbook giving them a 96.77% chance of moving on. Such a lop-sided percentage is going to have many talking about a sweep, something that seldom happens to teams LeBron James is with (three). But it has happened to the Lakers more than to any other team in NBA history (11 times).

(Photo by Michael Gonzales/NBAE via Getty Images)

But the Lakers didn’t make it to this round by luck. They are a good team; one that has beaten the Thunder twice this season.

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Western Conference Semifinals Series Odds: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Anyone who bet on Minnesota to upset San Antonio prior to Game 1 of that series is glad they did. Before Game 1, the T-wolves had +650 odds to win the series, but after beating the Spurs Monday night, that price is now +156. It could a similar scenario take place with the Lakers vs. Thunder? If you think it could, now would be the time to take a shot (odds via FanDuel):

• Oklahoma City Thunder -3500
• Los Angeles Lakers +1400

If you really want to bet on the Thunder to win the series (despite the market having no value), you can get a better price at Caesars (-1600), BetMGM (-2000), or bet365 (-2000). But that would mean risking $ 1,600 – $2,000 to win $100. Good bet? Absolutely not, but if you want to bet on the Thunder, you may want to consider betting on the correct score for this series instead (odds via BetMGM):

• Thunder 4-0 +130
• Thunder 4-1 +200
• Thunder 4-2 +600
• Thunder 4-3 +750

At the same time, if you believe in the Lakers and want to back them to win the series, there is money to be won betting on the correct score:

• Lakers 4-3 +2000
• Lakers 4-2 +2500
• Lakers 4-1+6600
• Lakers 4-0 +25000

With how the first round played out, if you are looking for a market to roll the dice on, DraftKings may have the best one:

Team to win a series coming back from a 2+ game deficit

• Los Angeles Lakers +1600
• Oklahoma City Thunder +2000

Of the 271 times a team has been up 2-0 in a best-of-7 series, the trailing team went on to win 23 times. The number gets smaller when the series record is 3-1. Of the 211 such occurrences, the trailing team came back to win in 11 (basketball-reference).

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No Luka, No Problem?

The Lakers were not given much of a chance in the first round, with Austin Reaves and Luka Dončić dealing with injuries. In losing Dončić to a hamstring injury, ironically, the last time they faced the Thunder in the regular season (about a month ago), they lost 33.5 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 8.3 assists per game.

Production like that is hard to replace. But between LeBron James and various role players stepping up, the Lakers managed to upset the Rockets. Thus, earning them a date with the Thunder. However, having that kind of luck against a stout Rockets defense doesn’t mean they’ll have it against the Thunder.

Houston’s defense tied for fifth-best in defensive rating (with the Toronto Raptors) during the regular season at 112.1. Oklahoma City ranked No. 1 (106.5).

The Lakers are definitely better with Dončić than without. But even his presence on the court may not make much of a difference. In the two regular-season games Dončić played against the Thunder, the Thunder held him to 19 and 12 points, and LA lost by 31 and 43. Whether Dončić returns in the series remains uncertain. But we do know that he will miss Game 1 per ESPN. This date is only an estimate, but ESPN lists Dončić as returning on May 9, which would be Game 3 of the series back in Los Angeles.

Jalen Williams has been ruled out of Game 1 for the Thunder.

My Los Angeles vs. Oklahoma City Series Pick(s)

Given how badly the Thunder beat the Lakers in all four regular-season games, with or without Dončić, there is no reason to believe the Lakers can pull off an upset and win this series. The better question is how long it will take OKC to secure a win.

A Thunder sweep is a definite possibility. At +130 (BetMGM) heading into the series, now will be the best time to bet on that market. After the Thunder win Game 1, the price will surely drop. Maybe not to minus money odds just yet, but it will get lower (meaning you win less).

Taking the Thunder to win in five would not be a bad idea either. If the Lakers are going to win one game, I can see the emotional lift of Luka Dončić's return carrying them to an upset win in whatever game he returns in.

But while the expectation in this series is for the Thunder to win, history has shown that betting on the underdog, even against a No. 1 seed, is not a bad idea. Over the last six seasons (2000-2025), a No. 1 seed has been eliminated in the conference semifinals five times. Both were eliminated in 2021. No. 5 Dallas eliminated the No. 1 seed Thunder in 2024.

If this series goes the distance, the better team (OKC) will win. If the Lakers are to pull off an upset, I’d think it would happen in five (+6600) or six (+2500). Don’t bet the house on this possibility, of course. But it may be worth drinking the office coffee for a couple of days and skipping that expensive brand-name latte for a day or two.

It will be worth it if(when?) you turn the $10 you saved into $670 or $260.