The NBA playoffs continue, and there are two primetime games tonight. With a 3-2 series lead, the
Indiana Pacers
(47-35, 26-15 home) will host the
Milwaukee Bucks
(49-33, 18-22 away) at home. With major injuries sustained to stars Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard, the Bucks find themselves as 6.5 point underdogs for tonight's matchup. Later this evening, the
New York Knicks
(50-32, 23-18 away) hold a 3-2 series lead, and will face the
Philadelphia 76ers
(47-35, 25-16 home) on the road. 3.5 point underdogs, New York will look to close out the series, and send Philadelphia packing.
(Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)
If you're inclined to bet on some late night NBA action tonight, tip-off between the Bucks and Pacers will begin at 6:30 P.M ET. The matchup between the Knicks and the 76ers will start at 9:00 P.M. ET. Both matchups will air on prime television, via TNT.
I've collected the best odds from a multitude of legal sportsbooks. In anticipation of tonight's matchup, I've compiled all the statistics, analytics, and odds to provide my top player prop predictions.
Here are my preferred NBA prop bets for Thursday, May 2, all taken as straight bets. Given my focus on bankroll management, I refrained from placing multiple units on these bets.
ODDS ARE CURRENT AS OF May 2 AT 2 P.M. ET.
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PLAYER PROP BET #1: ANDREW NEMBHARD
ANDREW NEMBHARD SEASON STATS
PPG: 9.2 | FG:49.8 %| 3PT: 35.7 % |FT: 80.4 % | REB: 2.1| AST: 4.1 |STL: 0.9 |BLK: 0.1
If there's one prop I love tonight, it's for Pacers guard
Andew Nembhard
to have over 19.5 points, rebounds, and assists tonight against the Milwaukee Bucks. Nembhard, now in his sophomore NBA season with Indiana, has earned is way into Rick Carlisle's starting five. Getting the starting nod 47 of 68 games played this season, he's earned his place on this team, and is a valuable two-way player. Averaging 9.2 points, 2.1 rebounds, and 4.1 assists on the season, the Pacers guard has seen an uptick in minutes, which helps argue the over for his prop line tonight.
His performance was rather underwhelming during the regular season on the offensive end, averaging 6.7 points, 0.7 rebounds, and 1.3 assists in three regular season matchups against the Bucks. While earning 25 minutes during the regular season is nothing to sniff at, Nembhard's earned ten more minutes of playing time this postseason, which puts him at 34 per game. In addition, the guard is averaging 13.8 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 4.8 assists in the playoffs, which is two points higher than his prop line tonight.
Nembhard's player prop odds have great value at -118
With addition to minutes played on the court has come increased production and shot volume. Averaging 9.6 shot attempts per game, Nembhard tied Pascal Siakam for the second most shot attempts in Indian's game 2 loss vs. Milwaukee. Hitting 47.1 percent of his three-point shots, the guard has become a true offensive threat for the Pacers in the Eastern Conference quarterfinals. I will say, I always saw Nembhard as an excellent two-way player, but I didn't have Buddy Hield getting lost in the rotation on my bingo card. I thought the Hield trade would've brought much excitement to the Pacers backcourt. Instead, Nembhard's taken advantage and is thriving next to Tyrese Haliburton in the starting backcourt.
ANDREW NEMBHARD FANDUEL ODDS
- Over 19.5 points + rebounds + assists (-118)
Why Andrew Nembhard can hit the over on tonight's player prop line
Without Damian Lillard, Patrick Beverley and Malik have been tasked with guarding Nembhard and Haliburton. Beverley is notorious for his defensive disruption, and held him to 0-2 field goal shooting in game 5. Ranked 30th in opponent point guard points per game, the Bucks have allowed Nembhard to hit over 19.5 points, rebounds, and assists in four straight games. With the line set lower than his playoff average, he has a 100 percent hit rate in both games where he played for 34 minutes and over against Milwaukee.
Overall, I think Nembhard compliments Haliburton quite well in the backcourt. His minutes and shot volume have only been increasing, which is why I love this prop at -118 odds on FanDuel. Now he gets a prime matchup at home, where he's hit over this prop line in two of the last home matchups against the Bucks. While the Bucks made defensive adjustments under various coaching changes, they allow the 18th most rebounds per game (44), and 14th most assists per game (26.5). Even if Damian Lillard does return to the lineup tonight, Nembhard hit 25 points, rebounds, and assists against him in the series.
PLAYER PROP BET #2: JALEN BRUNSON
JALEN BRUNSON SEASON STATS
PPG: 28.7 | FG: 47.9 %.| 3PT: 40.1% |FT: 84.7 % | REB: 3.6 |AST: 6.7 |STL: 0.9 |BLK: 0.2
There are folks out there that believe
Jalen Brunson, guard for the New York Knicks is a 1B option. Myself on the other hand, believe in Brunson. A true 1A option and bonified star, Brunson has showed the city of New York why they will reach their second consecutive Eastern Conference Finals.
This line is slightly inflated at 32.5 points, and I do expect that line to increase. Even as high as 32.5, it has great value at -122. Although his 51 minute performance wasn't enough for the Knicks, he's had some promising and efficient offensive production. While the stats say to fade this prop, I simply can't ignore how he's been performing against the 76ers in the playoffs. Coming off three consecutive performances with 39, 47, and 40 points, Brunson is the catalyst and release valve for this Knicks offense.
Hitting over the 32.5 point line in two road games, Brunson will get another shot in the City of Brotherly Love. Averaging 28.7 points on the season, this line is slightly elevated over his season average. However, he's been on another level, putting up 34.4 points and 43.8 minutes in five post season games against Philadelphia. In addition, it's very clear that Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau trusts a seven to eight man rotation, and Brunson is expected to play a bulk of the minutes. It's evident Brunson and the Knicks want to close out this series, and I do believe he will step up in anyway he can tonight.
JALEN BRUNSON FANDUEL ODDS
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Now that Bojan Bogdanovic has been ruled out with season ending injuries, the pressure is on for Brunson. Although they have a 3-2 cushion, the Knicks guard has scored over 32.5 points in four of the last five games without big man Julius Randle and Bogdanovic.
I know this pick is corporate, but it's simply very difficult to fade Brunson at this point. While his shot volume has been efficient this season, it's been off the charts against Philadelphia. Against Tyrese Maxey and Kyle Lowry in the backfield, Brunson is averaging 27.6 shots per game, including 32 in game five. Given the most he attempted was 22 against the 76ers in the regular season, he's the Knicks leading shot taker and scorer.
Overall, Brunson's increased his scoring from 22.4 points per game to 34.4 from the regular season to the playoffs against Philadelphia. Although the 76ers rank second against guards, his shot volume, and minutes should be enough to get this prop over the hump. Here's a stat, when Brunson plays 43 minutes or more, he's scored over 32.5 points in seven straight games. There's no one I rather trust in this situation, and Brunson is primed for the moment.
PLAYER PROP BET #3: PASCAL SIAKAM
PASCAL SIAKAM SEASON STATS
PPG: 21.7 | FG: 53.7 %| 3PT: 34.6 % |FT: % | REB: 7.1 |AST: 4.3 |STL: 0.8 |BLK: 0.3
Another prop I love tonight is
Pascal Siakam
to grab over 8.5 rebounds tonight. With increased production, Siakam is putting up 9.2 boards in the playoffs, and will get a chance to send the Bucks to Cancun tonight. Averaging 38.6 minutes in five games against Milwaukee, Siakam has caught a break with Giannis out of the lineup. With the current prop line lower than his playoff average, he's grabbed over 8.5 in every game but one. Before game 5, the wingman grabbed 9.0, 9.0, 11.0, and 13.0 rebounds.
A 6'8, Siakam has been a great addition for the Pacers. With the ability to provide that two-way performance, the ex Raptor will face a Bucks team who's been neck and neck with the Pacers on the boards. With an 80 percent hit rate in the last five games against Milwaukee, Siakam will struggle with this prop if Giannis is able to suit up. If not, I'm fairly confident in the over hitting.
PASCAL SIAKAM DRAFTKINGS ODDS
I especially love this prop given the Bucks allow the 18th most rebounds per game, and 13th most to forwards. While his biggest competitors are Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez, Siakam was much more productive on the boards in games one and two. He gets another shot at home, where he's hit over the prop line in two of the three last home matchups against the Bucks. Averaging nearly 39 minutes on the court through five games, this prop has a 80 percent hit rate in five matchups against Milwaukee when Siakam plays hefty minutes.
As dominant as Siakam as been with Myles Turner in the Pacers frontcourt, I like this prop at -120 odds tonight. If you're betting on the NBA tonight, be sure to grab this line early. I am sure it will move to 9.5 shortly.
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