NBA Playoffs Player Props (April 27): Bets Featuring Cade Cunningham, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Nikola Jokić

With how some of these NBA Playoff series matchups have played out, I’d understand if you said you were a little gun-shy about betting on some of these games. Surely, Detroit will wake up and take care of business against Orlando, right? Most people would probably say “yes,” but I’d say think about betting on NBA Player Props instead.

It is not unheard of for certain players to do well even while their teams underperform. At the same time, superstars don’t always have to produce as we expect them to for their team to win. Let’s take those concepts and see how they may apply to some of tonight’s NBA Player Props.

All-Star guard Cade Cunningham of the Detroit Pistons [Photo by Associated Press]

NBA Playoffs Odds for April 27

All odds list in this section come via DraftKings.

Detroit Pistons vs. Orlando Magic

• Moneyline: Pistons -155 | Magic +130
• Spread: Pistons -3.5 (-110) | Magic +3.5 (-110)
• Total: Over 215.5 (-108) | Under 215.5 (-112)

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Phoenix Suns

• Moneyline: Thunder -500 | Suns +380
• Spread: Thunder -10.5 (-112) | Suns +10.5 (-108)
• Total: Over 214.5 (-110) | Under 214.5 (-110)

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets

• Moneyline: Timberwolves +380 | Nuggets -500
• Spread: Timberwolves +11.5 (-110) | Nuggets -11.5 (-110)
• Total: Over 223.5 (-108) | Under 223.5 (-112)

NBA Playoffs Player Props: Pistons vs. Magic

• My Pick: Cade Cunningham, OVER 28.5 Points (-116, DraftKings)

It would be really easy to make a case for betting on the under, but the easy bet is not always the right bet. Yes, Cade Cunningham has averaged 31 points a game in this series (so bet the over, right?). However, that number is a little misleading; he had 39 in Game 1 and 27 in Games 2 and 3.

During the regular season, he averaged 23.9 points a game; he scored 24+ in 35 of the 64 games he appeared in. But he has gone over this player prop just once in the three playoff games, in only three of his last 15 games, and in 25 of 67 games this season (regular season and playoffs).

Orlando has been playing solid defense in the series (third in postseason defensive rating, 103.8). So, maybe the Magic can contain Cunningham, and the under is the way to go?

If you wanted to go that route, I’d understand and wouldn’t fault you. However, we have an MVP candidate on the verge of elimination that has not been getting much help from the rest of his team. He averaged 18.6 shots per game in the regular season but has averaged 23 per game in this series. It would not be shocking to see him put the team on his back and carry it to a win in this game.

In doing so, he’ll easily attempt 23+ shots and go over this total.

NBA Playoffs Player Props: Thunder vs. Suns

• My Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OVER 39.5 Pts + Ast (-108, DraftKings)

If you’d like a lower total to bet the Over on, you can find 38.5 at FanDuel, but the price is higher (-125). The case for over 39.5 is just as good as the case for over 38.5. At the same time, the case for the under is solid.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has finished under this total (and 38.5) in nine of his last 15 games, in seven of his last 10, and in two of three regular-season games vs. Phoenix. However, we are talking about the reigning MVP and likely soon-to-be back-to-back MVP. If you can count on anyone to elevate his game in the postseason, it’s him.

So far, SGA has done just that. He was a little on the quiet side for him in Game 1 (25 points, 4 rebounds, and 7 assists).  But then he turned it up in Game 2 and nearly hit the over with just his points (37 points, 5 rebounds, and 9 assists). In Game 3, he did go over with just points (42 points, 4 rebounds, and 8 assists).

Last season, when the Thunder had a chance to go for the sweep of the Grizzlies in the first round, SGA turned up his play and had his best game of the series. He may not go over this total in points alone, but he’ll cover the over.

NBA Playoffs Player Props: Timberwolves vs. Nuggets

• Nikola Jokić, UNDER 55.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-123, DraftKings)

This game is a little more unique than the rest. It is an elimination game, but the team facing elimination is a heavy favorite. How often does that happen? Well, it is an underperforming Nuggets team that we expect a lot more from, and Minnesota lost two key players to injury in Game 4, star Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo.

So, with Minnesota losing two significant players and the Nuggets facing elimination, surely Nikola Jokić will step up his game and lead his team to a much-needed win. Right? Not so fast.

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Yes, we can expect Jokić to step up tonight. But while Edwards and DiVincenzo are out, Rudy Gobert is still in, and he has done a good job against Jokić in this series. Gobert has held him to 25 points per game and 39.1% from the field, but Jokić has still averaged 14.5 rebounds and 7.8 assists per game.

Those numbers fall well below this total, which Jokić has gone over in just 21 of 69 games played this season and in two of eight games played against the Timberwolves this season (regular and post). He’ll pick his game up tonight, but don’t count on him to do so enough to go over this total.