(Photo by Brian Fluharty/Getty Images)
San Antonio Spurs (0-0) vs Dallas Mavericks (0-0)
- Time & Venue:
7:30 pm ET (American Airlines Center, Dallas)
- Spread to Take:
San Antonio +8.5
The Skinny on a Spurs' Cover: The Mavs come in with the momentum of advancing to the 2024 NBA Finals, but have a new look team. Klay Thompson brings his winning pedigree from Golden State but losing Derrick Jones Jr. is a big blow to the perimeter defense early on. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving play defense in spurts and that’s being nice to Doncic.
The Spurs are looking to improve upon last season’s 22-win campaign and their offense will be better with the additions of veterans Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes.
Will the new additions lead to a huge uptick this season?
Probably not, but the Spurs’ new-look offense will lead to more efficient offense and, more importantly, good post entry looks for Victor Wembenyama. That will pay dividends right away, even though Dallas still has a much better roster.
Spurs look to compete without Devin Vassell
The Spurs will be without starting shooting guard Devin Vassell, but that means Keldon Johnson will get up more shots and Dallas has to show it is locked in defensively. Also keep an eye out for rookie guard Stephon Castle for the Spurs off the bench.
Expect the Mavericks to win, but the Spurs will put up some points and keep it close enough to cover on the road. Yes, the Spurs had trouble covering vs. Dallas on the road last year, but they are better this year while the Mavs have a new look.
- The adjustments will allow the Spurs to keep the game close enough.
Minnesota Timberwolves (0-1) vs Sacramento Kings (0-0)
- Time & Venue:
10 pm ET (Golden 1 Center, Sacramento)
- Spread to Take:
Minnesota -1.5
The Skinny on a Timberwolves’ Cover: As we predicted, Minnesota didn’t play so well in their season-opener on the road against the fired-up L.A. Lakers. Minnesota is finding out having Julius Randle on the floor at the same time with defensive stalwart Rudy Gobert is not the same as having Karl-Anthony Towns and Gobert out there together.
The ball sticks more and neither is a bonafide deep threat, so driving lanes could close up a bit faster.
Against the Lakers, guard Donte DiVincenzo played starters’ minutes off the bench, but didn’t shoot well (3-11 field goal, 2-8 3-point) and starting point guard Mike Conley was totally ineffective (-22 +/-).
Look for Minnesota to find its footing and for the rotation regulars to play better in game two, particularly the shooting of DiVincenzo and Conley (0-5 3-point). Conley’s production long-term is something to watch for early this season, but he and his teammates will look better offensively versus the Kings.
Kings debut DeMar DeRozan against Timberwolves as Sacramento seeks to break 2-of-3 losing streak
The Kings are in the same position as the Timberwolves were on Tuesday: breaking in a new big piece for the first time in all-star veteran wing DeMar DeRozan. The Kings have a terrific unit, but the adjustment period will still be there with DeRozan in the lineup. Minnesota lost two of three last season to Sacramento, but did win on the road two days before Christmas, 2023.
The Timberwolves are good for bounce backs, too, as they have won 9 of their last 10 following a road loss and have covered on the road seven of eight games following a road loss.
Both these teams have Western Conference title aspirations, and the Timberwolves do not want to begin 0-2 with a three-game home swing to follow.
Oklahoma City Thunder (0-0) vs Denver Nuggets (0-0)
- Time & Venue:
10 pm ET (Ball Arena, Denver)
- Spread to Take:
Denver -2.5
The Skinny on a Nuggets' Cover:
"These are two serious NBA title contenders and we project them to earn the top two seeds in the Western Conference, with the Thunder winning 58 games and Denver 54."
Yes, more has to go right for Denver to get to its projected win total for the season and challenge OKC and Minnesota in the West, but for Thursday night the Nuggets have more going right.
Denver was 33-8 at home last season and the Thunder were 24-17 on the road. Denver lost to OKC twice last December, but the Nuggets have the healthier team right now.
Nuggets eye win against Thunder as Denver looks to break OKC's 7-0 ATS streak
If you want to go ML for Denver (-133) on this three-gamer that could be the safe play. Of the three games, this is the one going against the trends the most.
After all, Oklahoma City won’t be an underdog many times this season and the Thunder are 7-0 against the spread on the road at Ball Arena in their last seven visits. That streak will end at some time and the first game when OKC is breaking in some new players and has injuries is the best bet for it to happen during the 2024-25 season.
Westbrook and Nuggets bench step up as Thunder face injuries
Former MVP Russell Westbrook will play a key role for Denver and it’s “now or never” time for players such as Julian Strawther and Peyton Watson on a team that lacks depth if they don’t step up. With the home crowd behind them, we have a feeling Denver’s bench will play well and that OKC won’t adjust fast enough with the injuries to their bench.
Power forward Jaylin Williams, small forward Kenrich Williams, center Isaiah Hartenstein and guard Nikola Topic are all out for Thursday’s game. The veteran Hartenstein and the rookie Topic won’t be back anytime soon, but OKC is one of the few teams that can take extreme caution with its players.
Denver doesn’t have such luxury and is in win-now mode right and that will make a difference in a one-game setting.
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