Key Points
- SJ gives her favorite player prop bets and predictions for the April 16 NBA Play-In Tournament, featuring the Heat and Bulls!
The NBA Play-In Tournament continues, and last night did not disappoint! Tonight, bettors will gear up for the Miami Heat vs Chicago Bulls matchup!
(Photo by Duane Burleson/Getty Images)
There's an Eastern Conference showdown between the
Miami Heat
(37-45, 17-23 away) and the
Chicago Bulls
(39-43, 18-23 home). The winner will advance to the NBA Playoffs, and the runner-up will face Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks for the final playoff spot!
This game is expected to be close, and the Bulls enter this matchup as slim -1.5 point favorites at home. If you didn't know both teams have familiarity with each other. The Bulls have conceded to the Heat two times and will face them for a third consecutive time in the NBA Play-In Tournament.
With a 3-0 series sweep over the Heat, the Bulls have a newly constructed roster. Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan have departed, but this Chicago team has prevailed. Additionally, Chicago will face a different lineup in South Beach. With the "playoff Jimmy" era officially over in Miami, it's anyone's game tonight.
Finishing the season on a high note, the Bulls won three straight and four of their last six games down the stretch. I won't say the 76ers, Wizards, Hornets, or Trail Blazers are challenging opponents. However, the Bulls defeated the Heat 119-111 on April 9.
2-4 in their last six games, the Heat aim to get back on track and make their sixth consecutive playoff appearance. Mind you, this is a Heat franchise that's made two NBA Finals appearances since the 2019-2020 season.
Buckle up, this should be a good matchup tonight!
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Odds Are Current As Of April 16 AT 10 A.M. ET
If you're looking to bet on the Heat vs Bulls NBA Play-In Tournament matchup, welcome back! I am up early eight units on the month betting on the NBA, so let's keep it going.
Set to tip-off at 7:30 p.m. ET, the Bulls will host the Heat at the United Center. Slated to air on ESPN, it's a classic No. 9 vs No. 10 NBA Play-In Tournament.
The stakes are high, and the loser will get a chance to redeem themselves. Who's moving on to the playoffs straight away? Let's take a look at my three favorite player prop bets and best predictions for the April 16 play-in matchup between the Miami Heat and the Chicago Bulls!
NBA Play-In Tournament Bets: Miami Heat vs Chicago Bulls BetMGM Betting Odds For April 16
MONEYLINE
- MIAMI HEAT: +100
- CHICAGO BULLS: -120
SPREAD
- MIAMI HEAT: +1.5 (-110)
- CHICAGO BULLS: -1.5 (-110)
OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)
- OVER: 219.5 (-110)
- UNDER: 219.5 (-110)
Regular NBA Season H2H Matchups: Miami Heat vs Chicago Bulls
- April 9, 2025: Bulls 119, Heat 111 (Chicago +2, over 228)
- March 8, 2025: Bulls 114, Heat 109 (Chicago +5, under 225.5)
- February 4, 2025: Bulls 133, Heat 124 (Chicago +3.5, over 229)
Miami Heat vs Chicago Bulls Injury Report
HEAT
- Nikola Jovic, F: Questionable
- Pelle Larson, G: Questionable
- Kevin Love, F: Questionable
- Dru Smith, G: OUT
BULLS
- Lonzo Ball, G: Questionable
- Ayo Dosunmu, G: OUT
- Josh Giddey, G: Questionable
- Tre Jones, G: OUT
- Dalen Terry, F: Questionable
*Odds are courtesy of BetMGM*
Player Prop Best Bet #1: Bam Adebayo
Bam Adebayo 2024-2025 Season Stats
PPG: 18.1| FG: 48.5 % | FT: 76.5 % | 3PT : 35.7 % | REB: 4.3 | AST: 9.6 | STL: 1.3 | BLK: 0.7
- Over 19.5 Points (-115 FanDuel)
My first bet bet for tonight, I placed one unit on Miami Heat star
Bam Adebayo
to record over 19.5 points tonight against the Bulls.
Adebayo is extremely familiar with the Bulls and. their playstyle. Iff there's one thing bettors know, Adebayo loves to cook up against the Bulls. With Kel'el Ware at the five, Adebayo will matchup differently. However, Bam has a ton of strength over rookie Matas Buzelis.
- For starters, defense hasn't been the Bulls strong suit, ranking No. 19 in defensive rating (114.8). With that, they allow the most paint points in the NBA with 54 per game!
Dating back to 2022, Adebayo has recorded 20+ points in six of their last nine head-to-head matchups. Over that span, the Heat star is averaging 20.1 points per game.
Of course, I need to address the elephant in the room. Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra has been utilizing Adebayo as a 3-point threat and I'm all here for it! Attempting more 3-pointers than ever towards the back end of the season, this stretches the floor, and greatly adds to his player prop value.
Has Bam Adebayo Been A Secret 3-Point Weapon This Entire Time?
Speaking of the trey ball, Adebayo went 2-3 from beyond the arc against the Bulls last week. In addition, he's shooting 56.9 percent from deep! We aren't just talking one shot per game, Adebayo is shooting the lights out! In fact, he's 13-23 from beyond the arc in April.
Given Abebayo is a inside outside threat, I love this player prop line tonight.
- His play speaks for itself, averaging 21.9 points, on 56.3 percent from the 3-point, and 48.1 percent from the field.
While I'm not saying the Heat star will light it up beyond the arc all night, he's a legitimate inside threat on both sides of the ball. No. 36 in interior paint scoring, he's averaging 9.6 paint points per game.
- Add a couple of 3-balls and trips to the charity stripe, and this prop bet is golden.
Overall, he's averaged 21 points in three games against the Bulls in the regular season. Playing hefty minutes (36.3), Abebayo shot 49 percent from the floor, and 36.4 percent from deep.
- Even though it's a game on the road, he's still averaging a solid 20 points in away matchups.
Final NBA Play-In Tournament Best Bet Pick and Prediction: Bam Adebayo Over 19.5 Points (-115 FanDuel)
Soaring below 19.5 points just once, Adebayo recorded 22 and 23 points against the Bulls earlier this year. The Heat's third leading scorer behind Tyler Herro and Andrew Wiggins, Adebayo is averaging a respectable 14.8 field goal attempts per game.
- I'll take Bam Adebayo to record over 19.5 points tonight. Defensively the Bulls allow the second most points to centers, and 12th most to forwards.
Player Prop Best Bet #2: Matas Buzelis
Matas Buzelis 2024-2025 Season Stats
PPG: 8.6 | FG: 45.4 % | FT: 81.5 % | 3PT : 36.1 % | REB: 3.5 | AST: 1.0 | STL: 0.4 | BLK: 0.9
- Over 1.5 Made Threes (-132 FanDuel)
My second best bet for tonight, I placed one unit on Chicago Bulls rookie
Matas Buezelis
to record over 1.5 made threes tonight against the Heat.
The rookie has earned a starting spot in head coach Billy Donovan's starting rotation after an impressive first year campaign. A 6'10', it's easy to see why the Bulls drafted him no. 11 overall.
- With the ability to shoot the three ball, his defense and athleticism speaks volumes.
Buzelis isn't even the fifth scoring option for the Bulls, but that doesn't matter. All we need tonight is 2+ made threes, which is attainable, especially of late.
Averaging 1.2 3-pointers on 3.3 attempts, Buzelis role has increased with the departure of Torrey Craig and Zach LaVine. Although the sharpshooter addition of Kevin Huerter hasn't helped, Buzelis has been exceptional as of late!
- Over the last games, the rookie is putting up 14.8 points and shooting 48.9 percent from beyond the arc.
Matas Buzelis Has A Prime Matchup Vs The Miami Heat
I know the Bulls remaining schedule down the stretch wasn't particularly challenging, however, Buzelis shot 2-7 from deep against a stingy Cavaliers defense. In addition, his production behind the 3-point line has far increased since the NBA All-Star Weekend.
Pre-All Star game, Buzelis averaged 6.4 points. Since the break, he's recording 13 points per game. Not to mention bettors have seen a surge in his 3-point game.
- Shooting 50 percent beyond the arc in April, Buzelis recorded 15+ point in three of the last four games to close out the season.
With the high shooting percentages, the rookie is averaging 4.0 3-point attempts in April.
Overall, Buzelis has had success against the Heat, averaging 18 points and 57.1 percent from 3-point in three outings. Clearing this prop line in 2/3 games, he's averaging 2.6 3-pointers made on 4.7 attempts head-to-head.
Equally effective in the catch and shoot vs pull ups, he faces an improved Heat defense.
- Ranked no. 9 in defensive rating (112), the Heat have struggled to guard the perimeter at times (36 %).
Matching up with Bam Adebayo won't be easy, the Heat allow the seventh most 3-pointers to power forwards. They allow 2.6 3-pointers to forwards, so we may be in the clear!
Final NBA Play-In Tournament Best Bet Pick and Prediction: Matas Buzelis Over 1.5 Made Threes (-132 FanDuel)
Overall, Buzelis is one of the Bulls hottest shooters, and they will need all of that in a must-win game in order to avoid a second play-in matchup. Talk about a heater, Buzelis has recorded 2+ 3-pointers in eight of the last 10 games! That's an average of 2.3 per game!
- I'm going with the rookie, Matas Buzelis to record over 1.5 threes made tonight!
Best Totals Bet: Heat vs Bulls
Heat O/U Record:
44-38-0
Bulls O/U Record:
42-39-1
- Miami Heat vs Chicago Bulls Over 219 Points (-110 DraftKings)
My third best bet for tonight, I'm taking the
Miami Heat
vs
Chicago bulls
Play-In matchup to
total over
219 points on DraftKings.
We know the Chicago Bulls aren't the most efficient team on the defensive end, ranking No. 19 in defensive rating. Although they've stuck into the top 10 over the last 10 games, look at their opponents.
Replacing Jimmy Butler is impossible, who was Miami's best two way player, next to Bam Adebayo.
- Even after his departure out of South Beach, the Heat rank no. 9 in defensive rating.
Over the last 10 outings, the Heat have an O/U record of 5-5, and the Bulls, 5-4-1. Yes, the Heat struggle on the offensive end, putting up the seventh least points per game in the NBA with 110.6.
- This next stat may surprise you. The Chicago Bulls score the fifth most points in the league with 117.8 despite ranking No. 20 in offensive rating (113.2).
Why The Heat vs Bulls Matchup Can Soar Over Tonight
While both teams are middle of the pack in offensive rating post NBA All-Star weekend, don't let that fool you. Whenever these two teams meet, it always seems like a shoot out.
In fact, two of their three regular season matchups have totaled the over. With Chicago covering all three spreads as underdogs, their first matchup was a 133-124 shootout.
- To me 219 seems low, and all three of their totals this year have soared over that number.
Stakes are high tonight, but I don't see this being a battle defensively. Yes, there are key defensive pieces on each side. However, the Bulls turn the ball over a ton (13.9). Given the Heat don't play at a fast pace, they will have to match the Bulls, who play with the fastest tempo in the NBA. With that, I'm expecting a lot of buckets.
Defensively, both the Heat and Chicago are subpar perimeter defenders. With the Heat allowing opponents to nearly shoot 38 percent from beyond the arc, opponents are shooting over 44 percent against the Bulls from deep.
- With that said, both teams are 3-point heavy, with the Bulls putting up the most trey balls in the NBA (42 per game).
Final NBA Play-In Tournament Best Bet Pick and Prediction: Heat vs Bulls Over 219 Points (-110 DraftKings)
Both middle of the road, the Heat and Bulls allow opponents to shoot 46.6 and 46.7 percent from the field. If Lonzo Ball is ruled out for Chicago, that's a colossal loss on defense.
Overall, the Bulls have the tools to overcome a Heat team that lacks on pace. The Bulls lack a true super star outside of Coby White. However, they have key pieces to keep up offensively. For Miami, Herro, Wiggins, and Abebayo will lead the helm.
- I'm taking the Heat and Bulls matchup to total over 219 points tonight.
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