Key Points
- SJ highlights her key best bets and predictions for the April 2 matchup featuring the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics
It's Wednesday, and there's an Eastern Conference rival matchup between the
Miami Heat
(34-41, 15-22 away) and the Boston Celtics (56-19, 24-12 home) tonight!
(Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images)
The rivalry will look vastly different, especially since Jimmy Butler has been shipped out of South Beach to Golden State. Nevertheless, these two teams have met in four Eastern Conference Finals since 2012. The history between the Heat and the Celtics is iconic. Although Danny Ainge is long gone, Brad Stevens vs Pat Riley will feed families for years to come.
Winners of nine straight, the
Celtics
hold an eight game cushion over the New York Knicks for the No.2 seed. At 34-41, the Heat remain in Play-in Tournament contention as the No. 9 seed. We remember what the Heat did the last time as a play-in team. Never count Miami out! Erik Spoelstra is an absolute genius.
As the NBA season winds down, bettors are blessed with another highly anticipated matchup tonight! Heavy -10.5 favorites, the Celtics have several players listed on the injury report. The Heat are on a five game heater, can they upset on the road tonight? Their injury list is piling up as we speak!
Odds Are Current As Of April 2 AT 10 A.M. ET
If you're a NBA fan and looking to bet on the Heat vs Celtics matchup tonight, welcome! Looking to finish out the season strong, tip-off is set for 7:30 p.m. ET. With the matchup located in Boston, both squads will matchup for the third and final time of the regular season.
Here are my three best betting picks and predictions for the April 2 matchup featuring the Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics.
NBA Bets: Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Bet MGM Betting Odds For April 2
MONEYLINE
- MIAMI HEAT: +400
- BOSTON CELTICS: -550
SPREAD
- MIAMI HEAT: -10.5
- BOSTON CELTICS: +10.5
OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)
- OVER: 211.5 (-110)
- UNDER: 211.5 (-110)
Last Five H2H Matchups: Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics
- March 14, 2o25: Celtics 103, Heat 91 (Boston -7.5, under 212)
- February 10, 2o25: Celtics 105, Heat 85 (Boston -8.5, under 210.5)
- December 2, 2024: Celtics 108, Heat 89 (Boston -9.5, under 220)
- May 1, 2024: Celtics 118, Heat 84 (Boston -13.5, over 201.5)
- April 29, 2024: Celtics 1-2, Heat 88 ( Boston -10.5, under 204.5)
Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Injury Report
HEAT
- Nikola Jovic, F: OUT
- Kevin love, F: OUT
- Duncan Robinson, F: OUT
- Dru Smith, G: OUT
- Andrew Wiggins, F: OUT
CELTICS
- Jaylen Brown, G: QUESTIONABLE
- Jrue Holiday, G: QUESTIONABLE
- Al Horford, C: QUESTIONABLE
- Kristaps Porzingis, C: QUESTIONABLE
Player Prop Best Bet #1: Derrick White
Derrick White 2024-2025 Season Stats
PPG: 16.5 | FG: 43.8 % | FT: 84 % | 3PT : 38.1 % | REB: 4.5 | AST: 4.6 | STL: 1.0 | BLK: 1.0
- Over 15.5 Points (-115 DraftKings)
Derrick White
has made headlines this week, becoming the Celtics record holder for 3-pointers in a season with 247! Now I have White to record over 15.5 points tonight for one unit against the Miami Heat.
White has been a huge part of the Celtics nine game run, especially with Jaylen Brown out with a knee issue. Could this be another Derrick White game with Jrue Holiday, Brown, Al Horford, and Kristaps Porzingis all listed as questionable?
White already admitted guarding Draymond Green in the Finals permanently changed the landscape of his game. One of the best two way guards in the NBA, we all know White loves to cook up against the Heat!
No.4 in the NBA in 3-pointers, White has been one of the most consistent players for head coach Joe Mazzulla and the Celtics. Averaging 16.5 points on the season, White hasn't had to exert himself.
Aside from his 41 point explosion against the Trail Blazers, the Celtics have been winning massively. Over their winning streak, White has averaged 14.9 points, 6.3 assists, 5.4 rebounds, and 1.1 steals.
Now, White has cooled off a bit, shooting just 26.1 percent from beyond the arc, and 30.8 percent from the field over the last two games against the Grizzlies and Spurs.
Derrick White Made Celtics History With 3-Pointers
With the player prop line set at 15.5, more than half of this can come from 3-pointers alone. While White's percentages aren't anything to rave over, he's averaging 3.4 3-pointers made on an average of 8.2 attempts over the last five games. With 23 trey ball attempts over the last two games, I'm not worried.
Catch and shoot, or pull up in transition, that's where White performs the best. With that, he's been one of the only reliable players that's been healthy. With that comes heavy playing minutes. Logging an average of 34.6 minutes in March, White has soared over this prop in three of the last five games when playing at least 34 minutes.
As the end of the season winds down, fatigue sets in. Sure, White's shooting percentages have decreased dramatically. Even shooting 39.3 percent from the field, and 33.7 percent from deep, White has still managed to average 15.7 points over the last 10 games. It's as simple as it sounds, White will need to connect his shots tonight.
Overall, we've seen White average 16.7 points in three games vs Miami this season. Miami also prides themselves on defense and that hasn't changed even with the Butler trade. Although they slipped just a hair, the Heat still rank No. 12 in defensive rating since the blockbuster trade with the Warriors.
Final NBA Best Bet Pick and Prediction: Derrick White Over 15.5 Points (-115 DraftKings)
I'm not sure who will be available for the Celtics, so I'm banking on a healthy Derrick White. Given Miami clamps guards, they allow the fourth least points per game to shooting guards. Although, that may change with Alec Burks and Tyler Herro in the backcourt.
Given White has recorded 15+ points in in five of the last six head-to-head matchups with the Heat, he's averaging 21.5 points over that span.
- With those stats, I expect this line to increase. Therefore, I'm taking Derrick White to record over 15.5 points tonight.
Player Prop Best Bet #Davion Mitchell
Davion Mitchell 2024-2025 Season Stats
PPG: 7.5 | FG: 46.2 % | FT: 66.7 % | 3PT : 39.8 % | REB: 2.1 | AST: 4.7 | STL: 0.9 | BLK: 0.2
- Over 8.5 Points (-115 Fanatics)
My second best bet and pick for tonight, I placed one unit on
Davion Mitchell to record over 8.5 points for -115 odds on Fanatics vs the Celtics.
In his first season with the Miami Heat, Mitchell has been one of the most decent mid season acquisitions. Averaging a career high 50 percent from the field, and 46.4 percent from beyond the arc (with Miami), Mitchell's role on the Heat is changing.
Aside from the Heat's five game heater, they have a robust amount of injuries. With Duncan Robinson, Andrew Wiggins, and Kevin Love out once again for Miami, Mitchell is certainly in line for increased production. The addition of Mitchell has allowed Herro to play off ball a bit more, and with Terry Rozier trending in the wrong direction, I'm on big Davion Mitchell.
While Mitchells production can be somewhat up and down, he's been extremely efficient over the stretch. Averaging 10.8 points over the last 10 games, Mitchell is shooting the lights out of the arenas. This is a player who's shooting 46.3 percent beyond the arc, and 46.2 percent from the floor.
His overall production has increased vastly since starting the season with the Toronto Raptors. Now he faces an elite Celtics defense, who has several questions on the injury report.
Why Davion Mitchell Could Soar Over This Player Prop Bet
Nevertheless, Mitchell has an efficient 12-point performance against the Celtics in mid March. Shooting 4-8 (50 %) from the field, and 3-5 (60%) from 3-point range, Mitchell earned a solid 35 minutes of playing time in Miami's 102-91 loss against Boston.
Ironically, Mitchells' first game as a member of the Heat came against the Celtics on February 10. Let's chalk it up to first game nerves, Mitchell finished with four points in 23 minutes.
Now in a much different spot, there will be a ton of pressure with Wiggins and Robinson out of the lineup. With the Chicago Bulls earning a Play-In Tournament spot, the Heat remain two games back of the Hawks for the No. 9 seed.
Overall, the Celtics aren't very forgiving to point guards. They allow the seventh least points to guards, although it's unclear if Jrue Holiday will play today.
Final NBA Best Bet Pick and Prediction: Davion Mitchell Over 8.5 Points (-115 Fanatics)
While I'm expecting Mitchell to provide a spark off the bench, his utilization should remain high. Or at least high enough to score nine points. Given his impeccable shooting percentages and minutes, this should easily soar over tonight.
Recording 10+ points in four of the last five games, Mitchell is averaging 11.6 points over that span. And if we go back to November, he's tallied over nine points in four of the last five games agains the Celtics, although with two separate teams.
- Tonight, I'm taking Davion Mitchell to record over 8.5 points. One of the most underrated guards in the league, his speed, defense, and ability to strike from beyond the arc are measurable assets to this Heat team.
Best Spread Bet: Heat vs Celtics
- Celtics -9.5 (-145 DraftKings)
My third best bet and pick for tonight, I placed one unit on the
Boston Celtics
to cover the -9.5 point spread vs the Heat.
I know that's a large spread, especially as we gear up for the playoffs, and the Celtics have quite the list of questionable injuries.
However, let's take a look at the Celtics past matchups against the Heat. Ever since Miami's Eastern Conference Finals game seven victory over Boston, it's been personal.
With a 9-1 record against the Heat in their last ten head-to-head matchups, the Celtics have covered in six straight games. When I mean covering the spread, we aren't talking small numbers.
Since April 2024, we've seen the Celtics cover massive 7.5, 8.5, 9.5, 10.5, and 13.5 point spreads against the Heat. Although Miami's roster is newly reconstructed, I still have Boston covering the spread.
The bottom line, even with injuries, the Celtics bench is so talented, they could often defeat several first stringers.
Can The Celtics Repeat as NBA Champions?
Covering the spread in five of the last six games, the Celtics boast a +115 point differential over their nine game win streak. Injuries or not, Boston is hot at the right time!
Since the streak, the Celtics have been on fire:
- Rank No. 2 in Offensive Rating
- No. 7 in Defensive Rating
- No.3 in Net Rating
- No.1 AST/TO
- No. 5 Rebound percentage
- No.1 Turnover percentage
The reigning NBA Champions, this team is flat out scary. On top of it, they are defeating solid teams by double-digits or more! That includes wins against the Grizzlies, Kings, and Suns.
Not to mention, Boston has won six straight against Miami, and is 3-0 against the Heat this season. In those victories, Boston has a +49 point differential. In those matchups, the Heat have failed to score over 91 points, averaging an abysmal 88.3 points against the Celtics.
Final NBA Best Bet Pick and Prediction: Boston Celtics -9.5 vs Miami Heat (-145 DraftKings)
Although the Heat are riding a five game win streak, beating teams such as Atlanta and Washington isn't all that impressive. With limited depth, I highly doubt they can keep within striking distance against Boston tonight. Miami has yet to cover the 7.5, 8.5, and 9.5 spread this season.
- I'm taking the Celtics to cover the -9.5 spread tonight. I'll take question marks on Boston's side instead of the six players that remain sidelined for Miami. 4-1 ATS in their last five, I'm riding with Beantown today.
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