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It's Wednesday, and there's a full slate of NBA games. With that said, I'll be focusing on the Knicks (8-6, 3-4 away) vs the Suns game in Phoenix (9-6, 5-2 home) tonight. A primetime matchup, let's take a look at their recent performances.
Sitting as the 4 seed in the East, the red-hot Knicks are coming off winners of three straight vs the Wizards and Nets. While that's not saying much, New York has a +40 point differential, averaging 124 over that span. While they are afloat, the Knicks are dealing with several injuries. Managing to win games, the absence of Miles McBride, Precious Achiuwa, and Mitch Robinson will be much felt in essential matchups.
With limited depth, the Knicks rank dead last in bench points per game (16.1). That's not to say they don't have one of the best starting five in the NBA. With newly acquired Karl-Anthony Towns leading the way with 26.9 points, the big man is certainly having a career-year.
Shooting career-highs in field goal (54.4 %) and three-point (51.5 %) percentage, KAT is the player the Knicks so badly needed. Able to space the floor yet heavy on the boards, he compliments Jalen Brunson, Mikal Brides, Josh Hart, and OG Anunoby well. Winners of four of the last five outings, look for the Knicks to stay hot tonight.
As for the Suns, they are trending in the wrong direction, losing four straight and five of the last six. Without Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal in the lineup, this offense is truly abysmal. Somehow, still alive in the standings, they are coming off a brutal 109-99 loss vs the Magic. When Devin Booker struggles from the field (5-14, 2-7), this team can't buy a win right now.
In what should've been an excellent game on primetime television, both the Knicks and the Suns are riddled with injuries. With that said, I'll provide my three best bets and predictions for tonight. Including a mix of spread and player prop bets.
If you're tailing my NBA best picks and predictions for tonight, I've placed my wages within FanDuel and DraftKings Sportsbooks. Placing one unit on each play, I am focusing on building my bank roll. While you can parlay all three picks, I chose to place these bets separately.
With a 38-18 NBA betting record in November, I am up over four units on the month. Let's cash out tonight, and finish strong mid week! Slated to air on ESPN, thel late night matchup will tip-off at 10 p.m. ET. Let's take a look and break down my three best picks and predictions for the Knicks vs Suns showdown!
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MONEYLINE
SPREAD
OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)
My first pick and prediction for tonight, I placed one unit on the New York Knicks to cover the -5 favorable spread on the road vs the Suns. Let's face it, I call it how I see it. While I try not to overcomplicate my decisions, both teams are trending in opposite directions. While New York is managing to win games with injuries, the Suns are falling apart without Bradley Beal and Kevin Durant.
As mentioned previously, the Suns are on a four game losing streak, and have five of their last six games. While they've been proven winners with Booker and Beal in the lineup, injuries have been proven costly. With how dynamic KD is, along with Beal, they make up over 40 percent of the Suns total offense. This puts a ton of pressure on Devin Booker, who's undoubtedly regressed this season. With Bookers field goal percentage dipping to 43 %, he's averaging the lost point total (23.52 ) since the 2016-2017 season. Furthermore, big man Jusuf Nurkic is questionable for tonight's game. While that would be a x-factor in betting on this match, Nursuf was ruled out vs the Magic with an ankle injury.
Over their four game losing skid, the Suns are putting up 100.8 points, including an abysmal 99 vs the Magic, and 83 vs the Thunder. Although those are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA, not having your big three on the court hurts. While the Suns have some decent bench role players in Grayson Allen, Royce O'Neal, and Ryan Dunn, they simply don't have the star player to replace Durant and Beal. With offense a huge question mark, this is a Suns team that's shooting a league worst 40.9 % from the field. With Booker struggling himself, Phoenix is shooting an underwhelming 31.6 % from deep.
Speaking of Booker, we can't blame all of the struggles on the guard. While the Suns conceded to the Timberwolves by just three points, it was their defense that allowed 66 second half points. With a bulk of Anthony Edwards points coming in the second half, it was Julius Randles three-point shot at the buzzer that secured the victory. Other than this game, the Suns have been blown out, including a 127-104 loss vs the Kings. With a -49 point differential vs the Magic, Thunder, and Kings, there's trouble in paradise for the Suns. If Phoenix wants to stay competitive tonight, Booker and Tyus Jones must shoot more efficient than 12-31 (38.8 %) from the field and 5-18 (28 %) from deep.
Even against the Thunder, 83 points is truly unacceptable. Regardless of the opposing team, getting demolished on the offensive end is concerning for bettors. While Booker's been bailed out with free-throws, again, shooting 2-10 won't win you games. Against OKC, the Suns had a mere three players with points in double figures. With field goal and three-point percentages under 3o percent, I wouldn't think twice about the under tonight. Especially since the Knicks and Suns place at an extremely slow pace.
Overall, the Suns will have their hands full tonight vs the Knicks. While I'm not saying New York doesn't have depth problems, they have it together more than Phoenix. Losing Miles McBride will hurt in the back court, however, this is a team that's adjusted through injuries. If Nurkic is in fact unable to lace up, I expect the spread to be much higher than this. Winners of three straight and 5/7, the Knicks are o an offensive tear. Averaging the third most points per game in that span (124), only the Cavaliers are shooting at a higher clip than the Knicks (52.7 %). With a +13.3 point differential, New York's starting five was all +20 on the court vs the Wizards.
In back-to-back games vs the Nets, the Knicks didn't even need Jalen Brunson to score a bucket until the third quarter. What matters is the starting five outside of Brunson can pick up when he struggles. That's the difference between the Knicks and Suns. On Sunday, Karl-Anthony Towns (26), OG Anunoby (24), Mikal Bridges (21), and Josh Hart (20) all delivered offensively.
Holding opponents to 110.7 points over their three game win streak is encouraging. Although the Knicks lost a step defensively, they rank 21st in defensive rating. While this may be somewhat of a break for the Suns, I simply can't back them tonight. With no reasoning behind it, Phoenix has been demoralized by teams left and right. Until Booker returns to all-star level of play and a healthy big 3, I'm taking taking the Knicks here all day. With a +5.8 point differential on the season, they now face Suns, who have a -1.5 differential.
8-6 ATS this year, the Knicks face a Suns team, who are 1-6 ATS at home. I'lll take the Knicks, who rank 3rd in the NBA in offensive rating.
Lay the points with the Knicks to cover the +.5.5 tonight.
G: 14 | PPG: 13.7 | FG: 58.4 % | FT: 87.9 % | 3PT : 33.3 % | REB: 8.9 | AST: 5.9 | STL: 0.9 | BLK: 0.2
My second best bet of tonight, I placed one unit on Knicks guard Josh Hart to score over 12.5 points and over 1.5 made threes on both FanDuel and DraftKings. With Miles McBride out tonight, I expect Hart to receive heavy playing minutes. That's of course, unless this game is a blowout. Overall, I love this player prop for several reasons. Averaging 13.7 points on the season, this prop line is much lower than Hart's season points average. With that said, he's been playing lights out for Tom Thibodeau.
The true definition of grit and New York, Hart is coming off a 14 point performance vs the Wizards. Even playing 32 minutes, this was a blowout. However, Hart still ended up with solid minutes. Boasting his best numbers in years, Hart is shooting an incredible 58.4 % from the field, which makes me love this prop even more. Playing over 37 minutes and that hight of a shooting percentage, how could I ignore this prop today?
Soaring over this pick in three straight games, Hart scored under 13 points just three times in November. Averaging 13.4 points this month, the guard is shooting well over 60 % from the field. If you know Tibodeau, he rewards players who play hard. No McBride, no problem. Clearing this line in three games without the guard, Hart is averaging 16 points without him. In addition, his absence has been beneficial on the betting front. Without McBride in the lineup, Hart 13.8 points per game in the last five outings without him.
While the Knicks bench has been one of the most underperforming, I once again expect Thibodeau to heavily rely on his starting five. Clearing this prop in five of six games, the Suns allow the 17th most points to guards. In a prime matchup, we've seen the following players come up huge vs the Suns:
With that list, I do believe Hart is more than capable of recording over 12.5 points tonight. Although the fifth highest scoring option on the Knicks, Hart's minutes have been most impressive to be. Record 46 and 40 vs the Nets, the guard is averaging 37.8 minutes this month. It's important to note, when playing 38 minutes or more this season, Hart has record over 12.5 points in four of the last five games.
In addition, for +150 odds on DraftKings, I sprinkled a unit for Hart to record over 1.5 made threes. Given the Suns allow the 8th highest three-point percentage (36.9 %), Hart has nailed 2+ trey balls in the last three games. Better yet, the guards had 17 three-point attempts over that span. Overall, Phoenix has been unforgiving vs point guards. Since 11/6, eight straight guards have made 2+ deep balls. Although Hart is shooting at a lower clip (33.3 %) from three, I love the value on this play.
G: 14 | PPG: 16.4 | FG: 48.7 % | FT: 63.6 % | 3PT : 31.1 % | REB: 4.0 | AST: 3.5 | STL: 1.1 | BLK: 0.6
My third best bet of tonight, I placed one unit on Mikal Bridges to record over 18.5 points and assists vs the Suns tonight. Acquired in the off-season, Bridges has been a viable scoring option for the Knicks. Although I'm not banking on the guard to get his points at the charity stripe, I do believe this points and assist prop line is too low. Especially given Bridges is averaging 16.4 points alone. While I'll throw in the assists, I believe he can reach this prop nearly on points alone.
While coming off 14 points vs the Wizards, we can chalk that up to a blowout. Scoring wise, everyone received a piece of the pie on the Knicks roster. Now facing his former team, Bridges has been stellar, especially over their three game win streak. Recording 21, 20, and 22 points vs the Nets and Bulls, Bridges should receive a ton of playing time tonight. Averaging 39.1 minutes on the hardwood in November, the shot volume will be there. Putting up over 16 shot attempts over the last three games, I truly love this pick for tonight. A strong play, Bridges is shooting nearly 51 % from the field in that span.
Overall, Bridges is known best for his catch and shoot threes, but is also a player that will pull up from the middy, or will catch teams with a floater. A two-way player, Bridges has been on a heater as of late, and I'm not fading it. With 10 assists in the last three outings, he's soared over the points and assist prop in four straight games.
Chalk it up the injuries, but the Suns have been lenient vs forwards on the season. If we look back the last few weeks, players such as :
have all hit this prop line and beyond. While the revenge game vs former team may be the narrative or not, Bridges has historically hit the over in the last two outings vs Phoenix. Until I see the Suns get some offensive and defensive identity, I'll take this prop all day. After all, we've seen Bridges clear over this line against the Cavaliers, who are the best team in the NBA. Tallying 22 points and assists against them, can Bridges do it tonight vs the Suns? This time, Beal and Durant won't be in his way.
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