The NBA has been a strong product for 40 years, but there is no guarantee it will remain strong or the lucrative broadcast deals the league secures will happen indefinitely. Regular season broadcast ratings are down over 10 years and the cause is more than just viewing options.
According to Awful Announcing, ratings for ESPN's 2024-25 opening night doubleheader were down 42 percent from its 2023-24 one.
(Photo by Adam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty Images)
Besides the anomaly of Game 7 of the 2016 NBA Finals, where over 31 million people tuned in to watch Steph Curry and his Golden State Warriors and LeBron James and his Cleveland Cavaliers, the five most watched NBA Finals games ever all include Michael Jordan besides that one.
Of the most watched NBA Finals (all games not just deciding one), that 2016 NBA Finals matchup is the only one to crack the top 10 and the rest are 1998 or older. In over 25 years of the post-Jordan era, there has basically been one NBA Finals series that has captivated audiences.
The 2024 NBA Finals averaged 11.31 million viewers, a drop from 2023 and a far cry from the league’s heyday in terms of television viewing.
So what’s the problem?
The first problem the NBA has is this notion that preservation is more important than current reality. The notion that a player’s recovery time or rest period will put him at optical peak performance is not scientifically proven.
It makes sense in the terms of human anatomy and science, but not in a business-driven sport.
Load Management Problem
The player is still aging, whether he plays or not, and the player’s salary, or what the public perceives he’s getting paid for, is to play each game if he’s healthy. Being healthy and being durable is one of the biggest prerequisites of being a great player.
It’s one thing when a player misses a few games, but when there's an expectation he will miss games without a noted injury, it’s a huge problem for the league.
(Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)
In the preseason, we projected the Philadelphia 76ers to go 52-30 and with Paul George coming over to join Joel Embiid, the expectations were high. When in a ESPN story Embiid was quoted as saying he doesn't see himself playing in back-to-back games ever again in his career, it sent a terrible message to the public.
Embiid's comments stir fan and player reactions
Sure, the 30-year old Embiid meant it in good spirits as he wants to be healthy for the playoffs and wants to win. The message, however, came out as if he can’t give the effort required to play a 82-game regular season, as if incapable. It has already put a damper on the 76ers’ season and brought out strong feelings from fans and former players alike.
Embiid says that with zero expectation that his salary will be adjusted or minimized if he already knows he’ll sit out games without being injured.
That’s a huge perception problem for the working-class fans.
Imagine the average American worker telling their boss they won’t be working on Fridays ever again, but that person expects their well-paid salary to remain. That’s not realistic.
Fans don’t recall now, but Michael Jordan got plenty of heat for returning from injury after missing a sizable portion of his second season. Nike took heat as being a culprit in rushing him back, but thankfully he didn’t get re-injured.
Here’s what happened over the course of the next six seasons as the Air Jordan brand took off:
- His Airness played in no less than 80 games each season.
- In the second three-peat title run of 1996-98 after Jordan’s layoff, he appeared in each game all three seasons.
The brand equity Nike and the NBA received from his availability each game is immeasurable. When fans bought a ticket to see Jordan, they were most likely getting him ready to play. The stars of yesterday being available helped the NBA grow immensely and helped bring the salaries to what they are today, and Embiid and other players (and team ownership) have to realize that.
Pricing the fanatics out
We talked about buying a ticket to see Jordan play in the 1980s and 1990s and him likely playing. Excect for maybe a Lakers or Knicks game, fans from all socioeconomic backgrounds could afford a ticket and get to see the game’s biggest star in the 1980s and 1990s. That’s not the case today.
Even the price of just getting to the game, parking and enjoying some of the concessions makes the average NBA game a nice investment for a working-class family, who likely rides or dies with the team.
Remember Intuit Dome's $70 parking fee?
A big deal was made when the L.A. Clippers opened the Intuit Dome this season, and there was plenty of social media chatter about the general parking being $70. Just to park.
The cost of doing business and the rising value of the NBA’s franchises and the sheer wealth associated with them ultimately means more corporate-based tickets being sold and distributed. However, the heartbeat of the NBA is the average fan who doesn’t do business with the league.
The role of the average fan: bringing energy to the game
It’s basically families with children who would love to see their favorite player in person. Those fans are the ones who cheer the most for their team and make the atmosphere enjoyable for the rest of the crowd and for the home team. If you don’t pay for a ticket or attend as a corporate favor, you’re less likely to be engaged in the game.
Many fans who enjoy basketball are loyal to the NBA, but they often say they enjoy college or high school more because of the pageantry and environment at the game. The live product would be enhanced with more fanaticals in the building who greatly appreciate being in attendance. It goes a long way towards building long-term equity with that fan who will return again and again.
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NBA 2021-22 Regular Season Ticket Listing Price Distribution by Team
Remember the average prices in the 2021-22 NBA season, when ticket prices, though steep, weren’t as crushing as they are now—highlighting how much harder it’s become for devoted fans to watch games live.
Baseball Learned, Why Can’t Basketball?
As people gravitated towards less TV and more consuming info and media on mobile devices, it was evident many years ago Major League Baseball had a big problem.
As society evolved over time to a faster-paced day with more travel and more commutes as America’s population boomed, it was evident the average baseball game was too long for the average American. Even too long for baseball fans.
I, for one, know of this problem even in the 1990s and it got progressively worse as fans from the game’s heyday in the 1960s and 1970s aged. I knew baseball needed a time clock for everything, even the allowed time of a mound meeting or the time between pitchers.
Finally in 2023, MLB instituted some element of time to its game:
- Players have 30 seconds to resume play between batters.
- In between pitches, pitchers have 15 seconds to start their delivery with the bases empty and 20 seconds if there is a baserunner.
It has resulted in shortening the game without fundamentally changing the game or compromising its integrity.
Between 2012 and 2022, the average MLB game was approximately three hours and over that threshold nine years. In 2023, the new rules shaved 20 minutes off the length.
The NBA should take heed. There is too much stoppage of a game that should flow smoothly and keep live fans and TV/streaming viewers engaged. There should be more pressure on the coaching and players in terms of less timeouts and shorter timeouts. Referee reviews also kill the flow of the game. These are minor changes that wouldn't alter the outcome of games and make them more appealing.
The Olympics example: flow matters
The 2024 Olympics were well watched and enjoyed by fans all over the world. The games were competitive, but most importantly, fans enjoyed the flow of the game and how it was presented on TV. The Olympic coverage got back to the basics.
People enjoy basketball first and foremost, not all that comes with a corporate or for-profit product at every turn. Fans want good basketball and it’s clear by ratings over the last decade, fans are not happy with the overall product.
Commercialization fatigue: do we need more ads?
Everything throughout the course of the game doesn’t have to be sponsored. Despite the record-breaking broadcast deals the league recently signed, do the jerseys really need sponsorship logos with the amount of money ownership is making?
It’s similar to what America currently is dealing with in regards to big companies. The products are not as good, the prices are higher, and there is a charge at every turn. In many respects it reeks of greed and there is a change that needs to be made or there will be a major backlash at some point.
50 Percent More: Premium on 3-Point Shooting
Five years after its inception for the 1979-80 season, NBA teams were shooting, on average, 2.4 attempts per game (per team). In 2017-18 teams averaged 29 threes per game and last season every team averaged over 30 per game while the NBA Champ Boston Celtics averaged 42.5.
So what gives?
Well, over time players got better at the shot because they practiced it a whole lot more. Good shooters then didn’t practice the shot as much as mediocre shooters do today. NBA personnel realized that a shot they can take and make that is worth 50 percent more than a shot which is only a bit easier means the shot with more value should be shot much more often.
What the average NBA fan might not know is just how really good the average NBA player is. In many respects the game has turned into a lay-up/dunk or 3-pointer and that turns off fans for plenty of reasons, but for one main reason.
Unless there is a rule change to somehow make the shot more difficult or de-value in comparison to the two-pointer, don’t expect a big change anytime soon in the amount of 3-point attempts.
Athleticism vs Shooting: What Fans Really Want
Fans can shoot and even eventually make ann NBA 3-pointer if given the opportunity. Especially, if they are athletically inclined or played the game in high school. What helped make the NBA insanely popular over the last 40-50 years is the athleticism the NBA players brought to the game.
There is little doubt the artistry of players like Julius “Dr. J” Erving and Jordan brought the game to new heights.
Why?
Mainly because they could do things on the court few others humans could. Even other really good players. It was something fans wanted to see and it made the NBA a hot ticket.
It’s along the lines of the theory about why the WNBA has a ceiling of popularity down the line (i.e. fans want to watch players much better than themselves). The NBA has a bigger problem on its hands in this regard than it might want to admit to.
Fans don’t want to see insanely athletic players shoot 40 3-pointers a night. It can take away from the essence of what made them enjoy the game in the first place. Why? They can shoot a 3-pointer themselves. They can’t necessarily dunk the ball over two seven footers.
We Want To See Men Play
(Photo by Aris MESSINIS / AFP) (Photo by ARIS MESSINIS/AFP via Getty Images)
Fans have more entertainment options than ever before and more ways to view games. Regardless, the NCAA ranks is where most of the product is harvested from and over the last 25 years the prospects drafted into the league are younger. When the pro game was at its height of popularity, the teams were generally older than now and the average age of the roster higher.
There have been many jokes and online memes about some of the league’s bad teams having the look of a grassroots travel ball club, because they look like developmental clubs in terms of their ability and the age of the roster.
Fans want to see an older, more polished, product
Even if the team is not playing well, the fans want to see a mature effort, not a developmental club. In recent years, NBA personnel have developed a fascination with age and upside. Well, many NBA teams miss in the NBA Draft because of that. The three or four-year college player is not as desired as the young prospect and it has hurt the product over time.
Fans also don’t grow an affinity for the player or see the player come in with enough brand equity to become a long-time fan before the young player is out of the league. If anything, the four-year college player who is on television plenty as a college basketball player used to come in with a bigger following and the production level expected was also much higher.
The Clock is Ticking: Fix It Before It’s Too Late
To be fair, the NBA is not the only thing on television that is in the midst of declining ratings. That means it’s only that much more important the NBA doesn’t let its problems linger just because on the surface the product is doing well financially.
It’s no secret the current rookie class could be historically bad and James and Curry are not far from retirement. There is no guarantee the next James or Curry is right on the horizon and with that in mind the NBA needs to fix its leaks before the pipe bursts and causes more damage than is necessary.
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