NBA Rookie of the Year 2024-25: Betting Favorites and Predictions (Edey or Sheppard?)

It’s no secret the 2024-25 NBA rookie class has a long way to go to make a serious impact on the league’s landscape. There are some quality long-term prospects, however, and the race for 2024-25 NBA Rookie of the Year is wide open. We break down the five best bets to capture this year’s award.

The NBA Rookie of the Year award is named after Wilt Chamberlain, but don’t expect any Wilt The Stilt type impact on the league or even anything close to what we saw with the San Antonio Spurs’ Victor Wembanyama last season.

• There might not be a franchise-type talent in the whole 2024 draft class, but there will undoubtedly be some quality players who emerge with experience and seasoning.

Last season Wembanyama was an overwhelming betting favorite and you have to go back to Kevin Durant in 2007-08 (in the final year of the Seattle Supersonics) to reportedly find such an overwhelming favorite to be named the league’s top rookie.

According to various online sources, L.A. Lakers second round draft choice Bronny James, son of Lakers superstar LeBron James, has accounted for a quarter of all the ROY bets made at ESPN BET.

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Obviously, the Bronny phenomenon is something to discuss on its own, as below we discuss the most viable candidates based on talent and opportunity, not fandom.

2024-25 NBA Rookie of the Year: Current Odds & Leading Candidates

*Odds as of September 27th

NBA Rookie of the Year Favorites

1. Zach Edey, Center, Memphis Grizzlies (No. 9 pick overall), Purdue, 7-4/305 (22 years old)

The Grizzlies have moved on from Steven Adams and Edey will likely be penciled right into the starting lineup, as the franchise has fared well with big, physical centers in recent years. Edey is the most productive and physically ready rookie in this class, setting school records for scoring and rebounding.

1. Edey was the first two-time Naismith College Player of the Year since Ralph Sampson in 1982-1983.
2. Now the college game is quite different than it was 40 years ago, but perhaps that’s a good omen as Sampson went on to become only one of seven unanimous ROY choices dating back to the 1952-53 season.

Edey’s strengths are screening, rebounding and paint defense and those skills are exactly what Memphis is looking for out of Edey, whose lack of foot speed and overall quickness could be a hindrance to his ROY candidacy.

The Grizzlies are coming off a 27-55 season in which injuries devastated the entire campaign after back-to-back second place finishes in the Western Conference in 2022 and 2023.

Will the team get back to that level?

• If Edey can keep up speed wise and set screens for a healthy Ja Morant, Memphis should be much improved.

One thing working against Edey is big men haven’t won the award often in the last 20 seasons, as you have to go back to Emeka Okafor in 2004-05 to find a true pivot to win ROY before Wembanyama did last year.

2. Alex Sarr, Center, Washington Wizards (No. 2), Perth Wildcats (NBL), 7-0/205 (19 years old)

This young Frenchman is in a good position because the Wizards are coming off a 15-67 season and don’t have the talent (or the intention) to be much better in 2024-25.

They are hoping the continuing rebuild (can you call it that considering the franchise hasn’t had a 50-win season in 46 years?) can lead to adding Duke’s Cooper Flagg next season.

1. The upside-heavy Sarr can shoot it well and could develop into a quality rim protector with added muscle and grit.
2. It could take some time to hit his stride, but the Wizards have nothing but time to develop this versatile prospect who projects as a modern day post that can guard multiple positions and stretch the floor offensively.
3. Sarr also may knock off a dark horse pick in his rookie teammate Bub Carrington out of Pittsburgh.

Here’s one thing Sarr has going for his candidacy: the eventual ROY had been a top five overall draft pick in 16 of the past 20 seasons.

3. Donovan Clingan, Center, Portland Trailblazers (No. 7), UConn, 7-2/280 (20 years old)

The two-time NCAA champion from UConn showed flashes of NBA level productivity in summer league play and expect him to get plenty of opportunities. Similar to ROY front-runner Zach Edey, Clingan is physically capable to handle the rigors of a 82-game season.

With DeAndre Ayton (the team’s most talented center and a former No. 1 pick) having played in more than 70 games only once in six seasons and Robert Williams III coming off an injury-plagued season, it’s a good bet Clingan will get an opportunity for a franchise that has to show its multitude of recent NBA Draft picks can be productive players.

1. The Trailblazers are in a precarious position, as they bottomed out to 21-61 (last in the Western Conference) after making the playoffs for eight consecutive seasons between 2014 and 2021.
2. The franchise’s front office is on the hot seat as the roster is filled with touted prospects who are undersized, offensive-oriented guards and forwards that are not great defenders.
3. Clingan is a proven shot blocker (which usually translates to the NBA along with rebounding) and is coming off a NBA Summer League where he blocked a record 4.3 a game.

Defense and opportunity make Clingan a solid bet.

4. Matas Buzelis, forward, Chicago Bulls (No. 11), NBA G-League Ignite, 6-10/210 (19 years old)

This Chicago native who grew up in nearby Willowbrook was projected to go much higher in the NBA Draft lottery at the beginning of the 2023-24 season. However, we had ranked No. 9 in the 2023 high school class and he predictably had an up-and-down season as a pro for the G-League Ignite (which lost 32 of 34 games and folded the program after the 2023-24 season).

• Buzelis has some terrific talent as an athletic wing with good ball-handling and passing skills with a penchant for the highlight play, but needs to find a consistent groove once he settles into his spot in the Bulls’ rotation.

The Bulls can go in two directions and the one they choose will ultimately determine Buzelis’ candidacy.

They still have plenty of “win-now” players on their roster and if guard Zach LaVine can stay healthy and guards Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu continue to develop, perhaps this team can make a playoff or play-in tournament push.

If the season seems lost before the all-star break, Buzelis could see his minutes increased and have an ideal platform to showcase his skill. The ideal situation for Chicago fans is their “hometown transplant” making an impact on a competitive team.

5. Zaccharie Risacher, Forward, Atlanta Hawks (No. 1), JL Bourg (France), 6-9/200 (19 years old)

The No. 1 overall pick in the NBA Draft is often a logical bet to win NBA ROY. After all, the No. 1 pick has been the eventual honoree five times in the past 10 seasons.

• Since Mark Jackson was the choice in 1987-88 as the No. 18 pick, there was one “surprise” winner in Michael Carter-Williams winning ROY as the No. 11 pick in 2013-14 and one true outlier: Malcolm Brogdon.
• After playing four years at Virginia, was the No. 36 pick of the 2016 NBA Draft and eventual honoree for the Milwaukee Bucks in 2016-17.

As we’ve stated many times, 2024 was not a typical draft and Risacher is not a typical No. 1 overall pick. Similar to No. 2 pick Alex Sarr, he will be 19 for a vast majority of the 2024-25 season but unlike Sarr he will be competing for minutes on a team looking to make a playoff push.

• The 2023-24 Hawks finished 36-46 and with some minor adjustments, will be looking to make a playoff push.

Risacher has plenty of time, but the issue is the Hawks’ other front court players don’t, the team has to make a stand now after winning the NBA Draft lottery to select the long-framed small forward. Risacher had a limited sampling at the NBA Summer League and is known for his shooting ability and perimeter skill level.

• If Risacher finds an identity on this year’s team, he’ll move up on the ROY board.

3 Quality ROY Longshots

6. Reed Sheppard, Guard, Houston Rockets (No. 3), Kentucky, 6-3/185 (20 years old)

The Rockets have a deep rotation of guards and added Fred VanVleet to mature its backcourt, so getting enough minutes and touches will be the key for Sheppard.

It’s certainly not his talent or shooting ability, although Sheppard has to prove he can defend if the Rockets are in the middle of a playoff push.

7. Stephon Castle, Guard, San Antonio Spurs (No. 4), UConn, 6-6/215 (19 years old)

If Chris Paul can put his massive ego to the side and mentor Castle on a team looking to improve, he could have a shot at ROY because, among guards, he is the most game ready on both ends of the floor.

Finding meaningful playing time for a playoff team is the major issue with Rob Dillingham’s candidacy for the Minnesota Timberwolves.

8. Kel’el Ware, Center, Miami Heat (No. 15), Indiana, 7-0/230, (20 years old)

Dark horse big man looked like a quality piece for a well-run franchise during the NBA Summer League.

Ware’s 7’5 wingspan, ability to finish in an intense atmosphere and rim protection gives him an outside ROY shot, but refer back to Risacher’s writeup above to understand just how difficult it is for a player drafted outside the lottery to earn ROY honors.

Last 10 NBA Rookie of the Year Winners