On Tuesday, May 13, the Oklahoma City Thunder will host the Denver Nuggets in Game 5 of this Western Conference semifinal series, and this is the best NBA Same Game Parlay today.
I last looked into this series on Friday, May 9, and in that game, the Nuggets won 113-104. So far, these teams have gone back and forth through the first four games, and the series is tied at 2-2.
(Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
The winner of this series will take on the winner of the Timberwolves and Warriors.
Outside of Nikola Topic (Thunder) and DaRon Holmes (Nuggets), who have been out for the season, Nuggets power forward Hunter Tyson is day-to-day with an ankle injury.
Below, you’ll find my NBA Same Game Parlay picks today for this game with odds of +128.
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NBA Same Game Parlay Prediction: Thunder vs Nuggets
DraftKings NBA SGP Picks Today: +128
- Thunder ML
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ Points
- Nikola Jokic 7+ Assists
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Thunder ML
The Thunder moneyline, which is a standalone line of -455, leads off my NBA parlay predictions.
In Game 4, the Thunder came away with a 92-87 win on the road against Denver. This included a score of just 17-8 after the first quarter.
In that game, the Thunder shot just 35.6% from the floor (31 of 87) and 10 of 41 from 3-point range (24.4%).
They were able to edge out the Nuggets in the rebound category, 55-49.
Meanwhile, the Thunder defense held the Nuggets to 25 of 80 shooting (31.3%), and they also shot just 24.4% from 3-point range (11 of 45).
Something else worth noting is that the Thunder outscored the Nuggets in the paint, 30-20.
Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had 25 points, six rebounds, and six assists in 38 minutes.
Isaiah Hartenstein added eight points and 14 boards while Chet Holmgren added another eight points and 13 boards.
As for the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic had 27 points and 13 rebounds. Aaron Gordon pushed toward a triple-double with 15 points, 16 rebounds, and six assists.
They also got 17 points from both Jamal Murray and Christian Braun.
In this one, with a Same Game Parlay, I'm just going to take the moneyline. This has been a difficult series to peg as the underdog has shown up plenty, but then again, on May 9, the Thunder were favored and lost outright.
That said, that game was on the road, and now they're back in Oklahoma City, where they were 35-6 during the regular season.
Looking at the spread, 10.5 is a lot of points. If I were to pick, I'd lean with the Nuggets, as they've already beaten the Thunder at home in Game 1. Of course, that game came after the Thunder hadn't played in about 10 days, and then in Game 2, at home, the Thunder won 149-106.
The line value isn't great, but our goal is to win these Same Game Parlays.
The Thunder win this one, and the score will be quite close to this point spread.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ Points
The next leg for my NBA Same Game Parlay today is for Gilgeous-Alexander to have 30 points or more.
Over the last two games in this series, Gilgeous-Alexander has fallen short of this line. In Game 3, he scored just 18 points in 45 minutes, and that game went to overtime.
In Game 4, he had 25 points in 38 minutes.
However, both of those games were on the road, and he wasn't shooting well at all.
In fact, in Game 3 and 4 combined, he shot just 15 of 41 from the floor (36.6%) and 1 of 11 from 3-point range (9.1%).
For context, he's shot 51.9% from the floor this season and 37.5% from beyond the arc.
In the first two games of this series, he had 33 in Game 1 and 34 in Game 2.
Both of those games were at home, where they'll be in Game 5.
I expect Gilgeous-Alexander to return to his scoring ways on his home court. He'll shoot much better.
This season, at home, Gilgeous-Alexander is shooting 53.5% from the floor and 39.5% from 3-point range.
Nikola Jokic 7+ Assists
One of the best parlay bets today in the NBA is for Jokic to finish with seven assists or more.
So far in this series, Jokic has had no more than six assists in a game. He had six in Games 1, 2, and 3; in Game 4, he had just three.
However, his potential assist numbers are quite high.
Through these first four games, he's averaging 13.5 potential assists per game, so it's just a matter of them actually converting.
The opportunities are there. In fact, his 13.5 is just 0.3 less than the Nuggets point guard, Murray.
Jokic has had seven assists or more this season in 60 of 70 games (85.7%).
Also, this season, he's averaging 10.2 assists per game. He's been consistent both on the road and at home.
He averages 10.3 assists per game at home and 10.2 on the road.
The Nuggets just need to get some shots to fall. The Thunder have an excellent defense and only allow about 24.2 assists per game, which is the fourth-least in the NBA. Over their last three games, that number has dropped to 20.
Still, Jokic's assist numbers will come. He's been close three times already, and I think he'll finally get it done here.
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