On Monday, May 5, the Oklahoma City Thunder will host the Denver Nuggets in Game 1 of this Western Conference semifinal series, and this is the best NBA Same Game Parlay today.
Whoever wins this series will advance to the Western Conference Finals, where they will take on the winner of the Golden State Warriors and Minnesota Timberwolves.
(Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
The Thunder may be without Ousmane Dieng. He's day-to-day with a calf injury.
Below, you’ll find my NBA Same Game Parlay picks today for this game with odds of +575.
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NBA Same Game Parlay Prediction: Thunder vs Nuggets
DraftKings NBA SGP Picks Today: +575
- Nuggets +9.5
- Jamal Murray Under 19.5 Points
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 32.5 Points
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Nuggets +9.5
The Nuggets at +9.5 on the point spread leads off my NBA parlay predictions.
This is going to be an intriguing series. These teams played each other four times, but neither team's starters played the majority of the game in any of them, including on March 9 when Aaron Gordon got hurt after playing less than seven minutes and missing the March 10 game.
That said, these teams are 2-2 against each other this season, with the Nuggets winning the most recent game on March 10, 140-127.
However, entering this series, these teams have incredibly different rest timelines.
The Thunder haven't played since April 26.
They swept the Memphis Grizzlies.
Meanwhile, the Nuggets just played on May 3 and went to a Game 7 with the Los Angeles Clippers.
When the Nuggets have had one day of rest, they're 26-27-2 against the spread.
The Thunder are 4-0 against the spread on 4-plus days of rest.
Of course, there is not much data to help determine a team's performance after nine days, so the topic of "rust versus rest" will certainly be discussed, but just know that both teams can score.
This season, the Thunder are averaging 120.0 points (third), and the Nuggets are just behind them at 119.7 points per game (fourth).
Over their last three games, the Nuggets have scored 118.7 points per game, compared to the Thunder's 116.3.
Also, over the course of the season, the Nuggets have been the better shooting squad. They've shot 50.4% from the floor this season (1st), while the Thunder are at 47.9% (7th). From 3-point range, the Nuggets are at 37.7% (4th), while the Thunder are at 36.9%.
While both teams are strong offensively, the Thunder are arguably the best defense in the entire NBA.
This season, they've held teams to 107.2 points per game (3rd), 43.5% shooting from the floor (1st), and 34.2% from 3-point range (1st).
When these teams played in March (it was a back-to-back on March 9 and 10), the Nuggets shot 50.3% from the floor and 41.7% from 3-point range. These figures are slightly skewed because the Nuggets shot 60.5% from the floor and 56.3% from 3-point range on March 10—certainly figures that are unsustainable—but they've proven to be successful against this Thunder defense overall.
While the Nuggets have an inferior defense, they've shown they can keep up offensively. The one-day versus nine-day rest is certainly something to be aware of, but I'll lean toward the side of rust.
I think the Thunder get the win here, but 9.5 points feels like too much given the circumstances.
Jamal Murray Under 19.5 Points
The next leg for my NBA Same Game Parlay today is for Murray to go under 19.5 points.
As mentioned, the Thunder and Nuggets played four times this season.
Murray played in three of those games and finished under this mark in two of them, including a 17-point outing on March 9 in a 127-103 loss while playing 42 minutes.
He did follow that up with a 34-point outing on March 10 across 40 minutes. He shot 11 of 22 from the floor in that game, including 3 of 7 from 3-point range.
Over his last five games of the series against the Clippers, he had 20 or fewer in two, including a 21-point and a 23-point game.
The Thunder are fairly stout defensively, as also mentioned above.
Murray has played 40 minutes or more in four straight games and was held under this line in two of three meetings.
I'll lean under.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 32.5 Points
One of the best parlay bets today in the NBA is for Gilgeous-Alexander to finish with 32 points or less.
Getting back to that conversation of rust versus rest, this line feels a bit steep for a player that's averaging 32.7 points per game this season and hasn't suited up in a game in nine days.
Over his last five games, which include the four games against Memphis and one outing against the Los Angeles Lakers, he had 33 or more in two games.
Against the Nuggets this season, he's had 28 or less in three of the four. He did have 40 on March 9.
Overall, this season, SGA has had 33 points or more in 32 of 76 games (42.1%).
In a Game 1 with so much rest, I'm taking the under.
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