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NBA Cup games are back, and we have a highly awaited Western Conference primetime matchup between the Golden State Warriors (12-7, 7-4 away) and the Denver Nuggets (10-8, 5-4 home). Slated to air on TNT, Golden State already clinched Group C. However, we are in for a western clash between two top teams.
No. 4 in the west, the Warriors are riding a four-game losing skid vs the Suns, Thunder, Nets, and Spurs. After a hot start, Golden State finds themselves as +4.5 point underdogs on the road. -200 money line favorites, the Nuggets have dropped two of their last three games vs the Knicks and Clippers.
With Aaron Gordon probable for tonight's game, the Nuggets should get much-needed offense and size. The Warriors will miss Draymond Green's defense tonight due to a calf injury.
One game back of the Mavericks for the NBA Western Conference Wild card, the Nuggets are 4th best in point differential (+2). At 1-2 in group play, their chances of making the quarterfinals is slim. However, everything will have to go their way.
If you're reading my article, I've provided a four-leg +508 no sweat parlay for the Warriors vs Nuggets NBA Cup matchup. A primetime matchup, tip-off will begin at 10 p.m. ET, located at Ball Arena.
After a strong performance in November, I finished with a 47-26 NBA betting record. Up over five units, let's cash out and stay in the green tonight!
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PPG: 17.4 | FG: 45.9 % | FT: 64.3 % | 3PT : 41.3 % | REB: 4.4 | AST: 2.4 | STL: 0.6 | BLK: 0.4
Vowing to improve from last season, Andrew Wiggins has upheld that promise. Averaging the best points per game (17.4) since the 2020-2021 season, I bet on Wiggins to score 15+ points tonight. The first leg of my parlay, it's a no brainer. Averaging 17.4 points on the season, Wiggins has cleared this line in seven straight games.
With increased shot volume and fairly hefty minutes, Wiggins will get another shot in group play. The reason why I love this prop is not so much the shot volume, it's the three-point percentage. Shooting a career-best 41.3 % beyond the arc, this prop can easily be achieved my free-throws and threes itself.
Coming off 16 and 18 point performances vs the Suns and Thunder, the schedule hasn't been easy for Wiggins. Averaging over 7 three-point attempts over the last five games, it's been Wiggins who's been the clear no. 2 scoring option next to Curry.
While Golden State has one of the deepest benches in the NBA, the absence of Draymond Green could increase chances of hitting.
Part of my same game parlay for tonight's matchup, this is one of my best bets today and here's why. As elite as Denver seems, they've fallen off the tracks a bit defensively. In addition to allowing the 24th most points in the NBA (116.4), they give up the 6th most points to forwards.
Although Wiggins hasn't put up huge performances, he cleared 15+ points in 5/14 head-t0-head meetings vs the Nuggets. Considering Wiggins has recorded 15+ points in 10/15 games this season, this is a strong first leg of my parlay. Aside from Derrick Jones Jr, OG Anunoby (40), LeBron James (18), Naji Marshall (26), Santi Aldama (28), Jaren Jackson Jr. (20), and Brandon Ingram (29) all soared well over 15 points.
Michael Porter Jr. certainly has the defensive skills and size. However, 15 points isn't out of reach. Especially for a player who's averaging the best true shooting percentage of his career (58.4 %). The Nuggets have been extremely streaky on defense, giving the upper hand to Wiggins tonight.
Some say rest matters, some don't. Wiggins has been sensational when given off days, and tonight the Warriors are back after three of them. Shooting lights out from beyond the arc (54.5 %), Wiggins averages 17.5 points off three days rest. Look out for this tonight.
PPG: 22.5 | FG: 46.7 % | FT: 94.3 % | 3PT : 43.4 % | REB: 5.5 | AST: 6.3 | STL: 1.5 | BLK: 0.5
My second leg of the Warriors vs Nuggets same game parlay, I bet on Steph Curry to record 4+ assists, Although questionable with a knee injury, Curry is probable to suit up (According to ESPN). Averaging 6.3 assists on the season, again this is a no-brainer.
Opting against Curry points, he has one of the strongest and deepest benches in the NBA. Even with the absence of Draymond Green, I still love this player prop. Tallying 4+ dimes in 24 of 25 games this season, the prop speaks for itself. Not to mention, Chef Curry has tallied four assists or more in 14 of the last 15 vs the Nuggets.
Given the Nuggets allow the second most assists in the NBA with 30.3, they allow the 5th most dimes to guards. One of the best facilitators in the league, Curry's 29 % assist rate is the highest since the 2019-2020 season. Still boasting a solid usage percentage, Curry assist to usage ratio is the best it's been in years, according to Cleaning the Glass.
With Curry's original prop line set at 6.5 assists, I'm comfortable adding 4+ as my second leg of the +508 parlay. Overall, the last ten guards to face the Nuggets have all recorded over 4 dimes. In the last three games, Harden recorded 11, while Jalen Brunson totaled 17 total assists.
With a 29.5 assist %, Curry hovers around 15.1 points assisted per game. With a +12.5 net rating, it's clear as day Curry affects every aspect on the offensive end. Scoring may be shaky, given he's been assisted 36 times by Draymond Green.
PPG: 29.6 | FG: 56.2 % | FT: 81.9 % | 3PT : 50.8 % | REB: 13.2 | AST: 10.7 | STL: 1.5| BLK: 0.9
My third leg of my Warriors vs Nuggets parlay is a risky, yet rewarding one. I'm taking Nikola Jokic to record 14+ rebounds. A hefty amount, Jokic is again having an MVP caliber season, this time averaging a triple-double in points, rebounds, and assists. Averaging 13.2 boards on the season, let's spice things up tonight!
Fresh off a 14 rebound performance vs the Clippers, Jokic has tallied 14+ rebounds at least twice in the last five matchups. While some of those outings were benefitted with the absence of Aaron Gordon, Jokic is grabbing an average of 12.2 boards over the last five games.
Just kidding, whether or not Gordon is in the lineup, Jokic's been a monster on the boards. In fact, in the last five games with Gordon on the floor, Jokic recorded 18, 9, 16, 14, and 14 rebounds vs the Nets, Timberwolves, Jazz, Raptors, and Clippers.
And now Jokic gets an elite matchup vs the Warriors, and will benefit from Draymond Green's injury. With Jackson-Davis at the five, Nikola Jokic is truly a nightmare matchup for Golden State. While it's unclear if Gordon will play under a minutes restriction, Jokic has the clear dominance in the front court.
Of the last seven head-to-head matchups vs the Warriors, Jokic recorded 14+ rebounds in four of them. Grabbing 16 boards vs the Warriors last February, look for Jokic to continue that hot streak tonight! Averaging 13.8 over the last 7 matchups vs Golden State, I'm confident in this prop tonight.
One of my favorite legs of my parlay, the Warriors run a smaller lineup. Having a career season on the offensive glass, the Warriors allow the 6th most offensive rebounds in the NBA (11.8). Allowing 15.9 second chance points per game, can the Warriors truly stop Jokic in the paint?
While this is well over his 12.5 rebounds prop line, Isaiah Harstenstein, of the OKC Thunder, recorded 14 last week. In addition, Clippers center Ivica Zubac tallied 17 total boards back on November 18. Having his best year on the boards since 2021, book Nikola Jokic for 14+ rebounds.
After a strong start to the season, the Warriors have cooled off just a bit. Riding a four game losing streak, the task won't get any easy on the road tonight vs the Nuggets. The last leg of my same game parlay, I picked the Warriors to cover the +5 underdog spread.
Along with a massive losing streak, Golden State hasn't been able to cover spreads. That includes large favorable 13 and 10.5 spreads vs the Nets and Pelicans. Maybe they took their foot off the gas, however, this is one of their biggest matchups of the week.
Clinching first place in group play, the Warriors punched their ticket to the quarterfinals. With that said, home court advantage is still at stake. With point differential being the top priority, the Warriors are likely to step it up tonight.
It's clear as day the Nuggets have historically dominated the Warriors, winning 8 of the last 10 meetings. Losing Draymond Green will certainly impact this outcome, especially on the defensive and playmaking end. When cooking up this parlay, Green was not yet ruled out.
Overall, I'm not still sold on the Nuggets this year. With Jokic playing out of his mind, Michael Porter Jr.has increased his efficiency. Combine that with Aaron Gordon, who's missed much time with a calf injury.
With the Warriors sitting as the no. 4 seed, the Nuggets trail Golden State by 1.5 games and stand n the no. 9 seed. Sure, this is an NBA cup, however, these two teams are barely separated by two games. 10-8-1 ATS on the season, the Warriors are 4-2-1 ATS as underdogs.
While five is a tricky spread number, we've now seen the Nuggets unable to cover the -3 spreads vs the Clippers and Knicks. The Warriors may be the underdogs, however, they are 3-0 as underdogs vs the Nuggets since late 2023.
If Steph Curry is able to suit up, expect this to be a close matchup tonight. The Nuggets have the home court advantage, however they are just 3-5-1 ATS at home. The Warriors have some serious talent and bench to survive the Nuggets. There's more than the NBA Cup to play for.
Lay the points with the Warriors tonight. While their numbers have dropped a bit, Golden State remains a top five team on both sides of the ball. Expect a closer game, given the Warriors rank no. 5 in defensive rating and no.8 on the offensive end. What truly separates these two teams apart is defense.
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