Southwest Division NBA Futures and Predictions 2024-25: Who Will Win the Southwest Division in NBA 2024-25? (Mavericks or Grizzlies?)

The Southwest Division only has one true NBA championship contender (the Dallas Mavs), but three other teams that hope to make noise in the Western Conference playoffs. Will the Memphis Grizzlies bounce back in a big way? Can the Houston Rockets break through?

(Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images)

Predicted Order of Finish

1. Dallas Mavericks
2. Memphis Grizzlies
3. New Orleans Pelicans
4. Houston Rockets
5. San Antonio Spurs

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NBA Southwest Division 2024-25: Current Odds to Win

*Odds as of October 14th

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Dallas Mavericks (50-32, Western Conference Champions)

Season Overview

• Last NBA Championship: 2010-11
• Key Move: Making the trade for Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington before the 2023-24 trade deadline. Will adding Klay Thompson in the off-season be the final piece to the puzzle?
• In A Nutshell: The Dallas Mavericks were the underdog in each of their playoff series. That won’t be the case this year.

Dallas Mavericks Synopsis

Sometimes shaking up the roster is what’s necessary and when Dallas traded for Gafford and Washington, it was sitting at 29-23. A few months later, it was in the NBA Finals, but just didn’t have enough offense for the Boston Celtics. With the good rim protection provided by Gafford and Dereck Lively II, Mavs Brass took a gamble to add offense by adding Klay Thompson, who helped the Golden State Warriors with four NBA titles.

He is that veteran that can knock down key 3-point shots, but Dallas will have a different look. They traded Josh Green, didn’t re-sign Derrick Jones Jr. and let Tim Hardaway Jr. go despite the latter being a key piece during the regular season. Dallas also added veteran guard Spencer Dinwiddie, so in essence swapped defense for some more offense.

These moves were made with an NBA title in mind, but with Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic expected to log heavy minutes, will the defense hold up? Look for Doncic to have a MVP type season and for this team to hit its stride after the all-star break once again.

Dallas Mavericks 2024-2025 NBA Southwest Division Prediction

• Prediction: 53-29. If Klay doesn’t regain his championship form, taking that final step will be much more difficult than taking last season’s leap forward.

Looking for futures bets on the Mavericks or Grizzlies? Check out our top picks in the Ballislife Bets section.

Memphis Grizzlies (27-55, Missed Playoffs)

Season Overview

• Last NBA Championship: None.
• Key Move: Drafting Zach Edey at No. 9 in what was considered a dreadful NBA Draft. He’ll contribute right away.
• In A Nutshell: The 2023-24 team was ravaged by injury, but the leadership and maturity of Ja Morant is what will define the 2024-25 team.

Memphis Grizzlies Synopsis

The Grizzlies were the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference in 2021-22 and 2022-23, but took a big step back last because of the suspension of Ja Morant and the various injuries that led to a NBA record 51 different starting lineups.

The Grizzlies have some terrific pieces, but what they need most is a mature Morant, and a healthy Marcus Smart and Brandon Clarke. If Edey can only defend the pick-and-roll adequately or for just a limited amount of minutes, the tandem of Clarke and Jaren Jackson Jr. will still be potent with the rest of the lineup intact.

Similar to the Oklahoma City Thunder last season, a great regular season record for two years doesn’t mean the Grizzlies had a championship pedigree and believe us when we say, they didn’t. Last year was a setback, but other teams in the West made some big jumps in that time frame.

Edey setting monster picks for Morant could help this team get back to scoring in the paint (they were last in that category last season), but one of the key pieces (Morant, Jackson, Desmond Bane) is going to have to lead this team in crunch time of a big playoff game. Who will it be?

Memphis Grizzlies 2024-2025 NBA Southwest Division Prediction

• Prediction: 47-35. Hard to trust this team when the pace slows in the playoffs.

New Orleans Pelicans (49-33, first round playoffs)

Season Overview

• Last NBA Championship: None.
• Key Move: The key move for the 2024-25 season hasn’t been made yet and that would be to trade for a veteran with size.
• In A Nutshell: This a good team, but it is unbalanced in terms of interior presence and the roster construction is potentially poor for the projected amount of wins.

New Orleans Pelicans Synopsis

In terms of winning, the franchise has been on the proper trajectory, increasing its win total for the past four years, but as we’ve stated in many of our 2024-25 division previews, those wins don’t hold all that much weight in the playoffs. After being swept by the Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round last season, the franchise traded away four rotational pieces and added combo guard Dejounte Murray.

There is an abundance of quality players at guard and on the wing, but how will it mesh with veteran C.J. McCollum, Murray and Brandon Ingram, especially since Ingram is in constant trade rumors? Can you believe McCollum has averaged over 20 ppg for nine consecutive seasons and hasn’t made one all-star game? Conversely, can you believe a player of Zion Williamson’s size and ability averaged 5.8 rpg last season?

Williamson has to be both healthy and motivated for this team to move forward, and Ingram has to stay focused even though the franchise might make a move before the trade deadline. Perhaps rookie Yves Missi, the 7-footer from Baylor, can be a shot in the arm, but that’s asking a lot.

New Orleans Pelicans 2024-2025 NBA Southwest Division Prediction

• Prediction: 46-36. Having good players isn’t enough.

Houston Rockets (41-41, Missed Playoffs)

Season Overview

• Last NBA Championship: 1994-95
• Key Move: Adding Reed Sheppard with the No. 3 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. He’s talented, but just needs to find a role.
• In A Nutshell: Hiring Ime Udoka as a coach changed the franchise’s culture in the right direction overnight. They’ll continue to improve.

Houston Rockets Synopsis

After winning 20 or less games in 2020-21 and 2021-22, the Rockets continued to play like a professional AAU team until Udoka was hired after a rocky firing from the Boston Celtics. The young players had a better approach and Houston immediately was more accountable defensively.

That will continue this season as the core pieces (shooting guard Jalen Green and center Alperen Sengun) mature. Fred VanVleet was terrific in his role, but will this team build around Green or Sengun? Either way, Houston needs to be a bit more efficient on offense and better 3-point shooting will improve floor spacing.

Yes, the Rockets didn’t make the playoffs (they were better than two Eastern Conference teams that did) and by adding Sheppard (who will be a fan favorite) perhaps other pieces are expendable and a trade can be made for the playoff push. Is there a knockdown shooter available?

Houston Rockets 2024-2025 NBA Southwest Division Prediction

• Prediction: Prediction: 45-37. Making the playoffs in the West is not easy, but this team should be in at least the play-in.

San Antonio Spurs (22-60, Missed Playoffs)

Season Overview

• Last NBA Championship: 2013-14
• Key Move: Adding Harrison Barnes and Chris Paul. The Spurs need some veterans to make up for poor basketball I.Q.
• In A Nutshell: The generational Victor Wembanyama masks the poor roster construction and lack of shooting.

San Antonio Spurs Synopsis

The Spurs added the best rookie since perhaps Tim Duncan (who made first team all-NBA as a rookie in 1997-98) but didn’t improve one game in the win column. That’s telling. Yes, Gregg Popovich is a great coach but he was fortunate to get to coach Duncan when the Spurs already had a quality team.

Before Wemby came, the Spurs didn’t have good point guard play (which is key to any basketball team) and terrible feel. Sure the franchise wasn’t exactly trying to win games in order for a shot at Wemby, but even with him it was evident the shot selection was poor, the shot-making ability was, too, and on-court leadership was lacking. The Spurs drafted a point guard for the future in Stephon Castle, and adding 39-year old Chris Paul will help.

Paul has never led a team to a championship, but this team is not close to that anyway. Unselfish, quality decision-making needs to rub off on Wemby, as he too fell into the habit of taking bad shots at times. Keep in mind, as a team the Spurs weren’t great defensively so there is more room for improvement than the average fan will notice marveling at the play of the reigning NBA Rookie of the Year.

San Antonio Spurs 2024-2025 NBA Southwest Division Prediction

• Prediction: 29-53. Improvement is coming, but don’t bet on a huge jump this season.

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