NCAA ACC Tournament Best Bets (Mar. 14): No. 1 Duke vs. No. 10 Virginia Odds & Predictions

Saturday’s NCAA ACC Tournament schedule concludes with several championships and semifinal games ahead of Selection Sunday. Today's games feature a few ranked matchups in what should be a dramatic slate of college hoops.

(Photo by Lance King/Getty Images)

Among them is the ACC title game between No. 1 Duke and No. 10 Virginia, a matchup between two slow-paced, defensive teams looking to grab another trophy before heading into the NCAA tournament with momentum.

You can find all odds used in my NCAA basketball predictions at DraftKings and BetMGM.

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ACC Tournament: No. 1 Duke vs No. 10 Virginia Prediction & Odds For March 14

I'm not expecting fireworks in this historic, top-10 matchup.

The Matchup History Matters

It's no fun to root for a rock fight, but a quick look at the extensive history between these two programs tells you all you need to know about how this game will be played. Over the previous five matchups, this game's opening lines (under 136.5, Duke -8.5) have cashed in four out of the last five.

These low-scoring games have favored Duke going back for decades, with the Blue Devils owning the series 85-37 on a four-game win streak.

Boozer Wasn't At His Best In The Last Game

It's no secret at this point that the best player in college hoops is Duke star Cameron Boozer. The 6'9" freshman forward has been a double-double machine this year, averaging 22.8 points per game and 10.8 rebounds per game.

Boozer wasn't spectacular in this past matchup, scoring 18 points while going 3-of-9 from the field, and doing a majority of his damage from the charity stripe. This was in a 26-point victory. Can you imagine what Duke could do in a game where their leading scorer makes more than three shots all game?

Regardless, they are leaning on secondary scoring threat Isaiah Evans (15 PPG, 0.9 SPG), while holding Virginia to 51 points is impressive in itself.

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Duke and Virginia Have Strong Defenses

There is not much to talk about with Duke, as it enters the game with the nation’s top-rated defense, according to KenPom Analytics. They also lead the ACC in scoring defense, giving up 62.5 points per game while holding opponents to an elite 38.8% shooting mark.

Meanwhile, Virginia is arguably the conference’s second-best defense. Under defensive-minded coach Ryan Odom, Virginia ranks third in the ACC in scoring defense, allowing 68.4 points per game while holding opponents to 39.6% shooting, ranking 15th nationally.

However, one thing I really like about Virginia defensively is that it's solid on the perimeter and in the paint.

The Cavs have limited opponents to just 30% shooting from 3-point range while center Ugonna Onyenso anchors the defense, leading the conference with 73 blocks this season, averaging 2.6 per game. Notably, Onyenso has been impenetrable in the ACC tournament, somehow racking up 12 blocks in just two games.

However, as much as I trust Virginia on that end of the floor, I just can't trust the offense in this matchup, which lends well to both of these bets.

Duke’s Offense Still Has The Clear Edge

On the other hand, Duke's offense can be trusted. Even in a matchup that figures to be defined by defense, Duke still holds a significant advantage offensively. According to KenPom, Duke enters the ACC title game with the No. 4-ranked offense in the country, with multiple high-scoring performances against good defenses.

That efficiency is helped by their ability to create second-chance opportunities. Duke ranks 11th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, giving them extra possessions in games where points are hard to come by.

Behind Boozer and a deep supporting cast, those extra opportunities could be crucial in a slow-paced game against Virginia, where every possession will matter.

• Duke vs. Virginia Picks: Duke -6.5 (-110 BetMGM), Under 140.5 (-110 DraftKings)
• Same Game Parlay: Duke -2.5, Under 150.5 (-130 DraftKings)

There's nothing wrong with throwing a lottery ticket on a same-game parlay for fun. However, I've always been a proponent of bettors being smart with SGPs, taking two or three legs with very likely odds to get back near even odds.

Expecting a rock fight here, I think a smart third pick to potentially double winnings would be a safe SGP, taking Duke -2.5 paired with an alternate under 150.5 total points.

With March Madness approaching, be sure to follow Ballislife for everything betting. Follow along with us for all the latest NCAA news and bets.