NCAA Basketball Best Bets (Feb. 17): Michigan at Purdue Betting Odds & Top Picks

Can you believe we’re less than a month from Selection Sunday? I can’t. But as we zoom toward March, every regular-season NCAA basketball game starts to carry a little bit more weight. Bubble teams are scrambling while contenders are polishing resumes and the margins get tighter by the night.

On Tuesday’s stacked slate, I’m looking to back the best team in the country on the road in a tough environment, the lone undefeated team to finally lose and a MAC powerhouse to put up big numbers against one of the worst defenses in the country.

(Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images)

You can find all the odds used in my predictions at DraftKings, BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook.

Michigan at Purdue prediction for February 17

Michigan has been the best team in the country all season and the numbers back it up. The Wolverines sit No. 1 on KenPom with the top-ranked defense and the fourth-best offense, nationally. They’re riding a 10-game winning streak and haven’t really been tested in weeks.

Statement Wins Away From Home

What’s most impressive is how they’ve handled business on the road. Michigan owns signature wins at Michigan State, Ohio State, Auburn and San Diego State. They’ve also blown out five straight opponents and it’s been nearly a month since they’ve played a truly competitive game.

Purdue’s Interior Depth a Concern

Purdue is still dangerous at Mackey, but this isn’t the same Boilermaker team as in years past. The depth down low just isn’t there, and that’s a problem against a Michigan team that can score at every level.

The big three for Michigan will be an issue for Purdue as it has been for every team this year. Forwards Yaxel Lendeborg and Morez Johnson Jr. along with center Aday Mara have averaged almost 40 combined points per game with big games recently. That front-court trio should continue to thrive against Purdue.

With Michigan owning the best defense in NCAA basketball, trust their offensive balance and ability to convert high-percentage looks to keep steady pressure on Purdue throughout the night.

• The Pick: Michigan ML at -130 (Caesars Sportsbook)

Back the most complete team in the country, even in a tough road spot.

RELATED: Michigan Takes Over As New NCAA Basketball Championship Betting Favorite

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Miami (OH) at UMass prediction for February 17

I’ve been waiting for the right time to fade Miami (OH), and this might be it.

The RedHawks are undefeated and ranked 22nd in the AP Poll, but the underlying numbers tell a different story. KenPom has them 85th nationally, and the defensive metrics leave plenty to be desired.

Schedule and Metrics Raise Questions

Miami (OH) also ranks 310th out of 365 teams in strength of schedule. Now, folks may tell you that teams play who's on their schedule and that's all that matters. I completely disagree and think it does matter, especially at the collegiate level.

The Hawks are simply winning too many close games against weak competition to truly believe they deserve to be a ranked team.

The first meeting between these teams in January was a two-point Miami win at home. UMass is significantly better in its own building, so if that result is any indication, this should be another good game tilted toward the Minutemen.

• The Pick: UMass +4 (-125 DraftKings)

If Miami is finally going to stumble, this feels like the spot. Don't be afraid to sprinkle on UMass ML (+140 DraftKings).

Akron at Western Michigan prediction for February 17

At this point, I’m not overthinking it. I’m continuing to buy the over when Akron plays.

Coasting into the final stretch of the regular season with a 20-5 record, the high-flying Zips continue to be one of the most entertaining teams in the MAC.

Akron’s Pace, Firepower Create Track Meets

From a betting perspective, Akron consistently profiles as an “over” team.

This is an elite mid-major offense, and the national metrics back it up. The Zips rank 48th nationally in offensive efficiency, but that firepower is paired with a defense outside the top 150. Add in a tempo that sits 31st nationally, and you get a formula for explosive matchups no matter who they play.

The Broncos Also Profile As An "Over" Team

The last meeting between these two teams nearly hit 200 total points. Even without that result, the underlying metrics for Western Michigan still point toward points. The Broncos rank 183rd offensively but are a brutal 331st defensively.

Somewhat similar to their opponent Tuesday night, that difference often leads to inflated totals.

Laying the Points As a Hedge

While I expect scoring, I also don’t mind laying it with the Zips as a way to hedge the over bet.

Western Michigan hung 89 in that first matchup, but the Broncos’ offense has cooled off significantly since then and hasn’t topped 80 points in the month since. By placing these two separate bets, we're still trusting Akron to score consistently against one of the worst defenses in the country.

• The Pick: Over 158.5 (-110 BetMGM), Akron -13.5 (-115 DraftKings)

Expect another fast-paced, high-scoring game with Akron doing most of the damage.