NCAA Basketball Best Bets (February 12): Top Picks For Thursday's Small School Matchups

Today’s NCAA basketball schedule is not packed with ranked teams and marquee programs. But it is still a great day to bet on college hoops. With that in mind, the list below contains odds and our best bets of the day featuring a unique batch of games. I get the issue some may have with this: you don’t watch or even follow most of these schools.

Consequently, shouldn’t you skip betting on such games? You could, but you’d be passing up a great chance to bet on some mispriced games.

(Photo by Matthew Visinsky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

The odds I used for making these predictions ahead of Thursday's slate of games can be found at bet365, FanDuel, Caesars and BetMGM.

Murray State Racers vs. Indiana State Sycamores

I am not sure why Murray State (18-8, 10-5 MVC) is only favored by 3.5-points against Indiana State (10-15, 3-11 MVC). The Racers have the No. 1 scoring offense in the MVC, have the second-best effective field goal percentage, and are second-best in rebounding. The downside—they can’t play defense.

They were demolished by UNI on Wednesday night, but Northern Iowa has the No. 1-ranked defense in the country. Indiana State’s defense ranks No. 215.

• Our Pick: Murray State -3.5 at -110 (bet365)

Indiana State should score some points on the Racers, but Murray State will have no problem taking advantage of the Sycamores lackluster defense and covering this small spread.

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Portland State Vikings vs. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

Portland State had a rough time in nonconference play and entered its conference schedule just a game above .500 at 6-5. But since Big Sky play has been underway, they’ve been unstoppable, going 10-1. Several games were close, but they found a way to come out on top. Against Northern Arizona on January 17, they won a low-scoring game 63-52.

The Vikings rank at or near the top in most statistical categories in the conference; Northern Arizona is on the other end of the spectrum. Portland State is 10-1 ATS on the road this season.

• Our Pick: Portland State -8.5 at -110 (FanDuel)

The spread should have been in double digits. Portland State fouls way too much, but Northern Arizona doesn’t shoot well enough from the line to take advantage of that. They won by double-digits the first time and will do so again.

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Tennessee State Tigers vs. Indiana State Screaming Eagles

Tennessee State (16-8, 10-4 OVC) is one of the top teams in the Ohio Valley Conference; Indiana State (5-19, 2-12 OVC) is one of the bottom two. When these teams met on January 17, Tennessee State won 73-67 and went on to win four of its next six. Indiana State has gone 1-5 since then.

Tennessee State is a solid offensive team (No. 86 in the country), but it is okay on its best day on defense. However, Indiana State can’t shoot (field-goal percentage: 38%, No. 361 in the nation). Their offense is terrible (No. 331, 68.2 points per game).

• Our Pick: Tennessee State -6.5 at -110 (Caesars)

They should have won by double digits in the first game and should be favored by at least ten. The Tigers are a good small school team, but Indiana State—well, is not. Tennessee State had a terrible night from the floor in the earlier game, but will not make the same mistakes this time around.

Indiana State is 5-5 ATS at home; Tennessee State is 9-4 ATS on the road.

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors vs. Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners

Hawai’i (17-5, 9-3 Big West) is currently tied for first in the Big West conference. They’ve won seven of their last ten and four of their last five, including a January 22 game against Cal State Bakersfield (98-71). The Rainbow Warriors have the No. 1 defense in the conference and the No. 4 offense.

As for the Roadrunners, Cal State Bakersfield (8-17, 2-11 Big West) ranks last in the conference in several offense-related categories and doesn’t come close to playing good enough defense to make up for it.

• Our Pick: Hawai’i -13.5 at -102 (BetMGM)

Thursday's game should absolutely be another blowout like the first. Enough money has actually come in on it for sportsbooks to move the spread from -12.5 to -13.5. If Hawai’i were a household name for basketball, the spread would be at least 15 points. They’ll probably win by more than that.