NCAA Basketball Best Bets (Feb. 13): Michigan State at Wisconsin Betting Odds & Top Picks

The week after the Super Bowl is always tough as I know another football game won't be played for months. Then I realize March Madness is only a month away. With just a few games left in the regular season, these next three weeks will be packed full of ultra competitive NCAA basketball matchups with teams looking to make a final push before the Big Dance.

Friday’s college basketball slate features a heavyweight slugfest in Madison between two red-hot Big Ten teams, along with a late-night MAC game that should be played at a fast pace.

(Photo by Grant Halverson/NCAA Photos via Getty Images)

You can find all the odds used in my predictions at DraftKings and BetMGM.

Michigan State at Wisconsin prediction for February 13

Wisconsin has built an impressive resume this season with wins against some of the Big Ten's best. However, I believe this matchup sets up in favor for Michigan State.

There’s also a subtle but important scheduling factor here. Wisconsin has played two overtime games in the past week, while Michigan State has had several days off to reset. In February, those extra minutes can matter.

From a matchup standpoint, Wisconsin doesn’t attack Michigan State’s biggest weakness. The Spartans have had turnover issues offensively, but the Badgers lack the perimeter length and disruptive pressure to consistently exploit that flaw.

Matchup Edge Favors Sparty

As we've come accustomed to see over the past few years, Michigan State’s defense has been elite, ranking top-five nationally and No. 1 in the Big Ten according to KenPom. Tom Izzo’s group defends ball screens at a high level, and its mobile bigs can hedge, recover and protect the rim against a Wisconsin offense that thrives in pick-and-roll situations.

In general, I think there's a lot of similarities between both these teams right now but Sparty just does most things better. For example, the Badgers are strong on the boards with good size, but Michigan State may be the best rebounding team in the country.

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Wisconsin can't wait until the second half

When you really look at Wisconsin's conference results over the past month of games, it's become a glaring trend to see the Badgers struggle in the first half before taking over in the second half. They were down at the half against Michigan, Illinois, Indiana and Minnesota twice all within the past month before coming back to win.

Michigan State is not the team you want to play when you're down at half, regardless of where the game is played. As good as Wisconsin has been in the second half recently, Michigan State has been a second half team for years.

A slow start against the Spartans has truly been a death sentence over the years, as Izzo just seems to always make the right adjustments defensively to close out games.

Making the pick for Friday's matchup

To beat them, teams need to punch them in the mouth out of the gate and accumulate a solid lead before that elite defense figures things out and puts the clamps on. I just don't trust the Badgers enough to do that.

• The Pick: Michigan State ML at -120 (DraftKings)

Back the deeper, more balanced team with the rest advantage.

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UMass at Akron prediction for February 13

Coasting into the final stretch of the regular season with a 19-5 record, the high flying Zips continue to be one of the most entertaining teams in the MAC.

Trust Akron’s offense

When it comes to Akron, the identity is clear. This is one of the best offenses in the mid-major ranks and their metrics against the rest of the NCAA place them at an elite level.

The trio of Tavari Johnson, Amani Lyles and Shammah Scott has powered an attack averaging nearly 90 points per game, a top-10 mark nationally. Against a UMass defense that struggles in transition, this sets up as another high-scoring opportunity.

Pace and Efficiency Point to High-Scoring Matchup

From a betting perspective, Akron consistently profiles as an “over” team.

The Zips rank 32nd nationally in offensive efficiency, but that firepower is paired with a defense outside the top 100. Add in a tempo that sits 35th nationally, and you get a formula built on possessions and points.

UMass doesn’t stand out offensively, yet its pace and defensive metrics suggest it can contribute enough scoring to keep up for stretches. In a game that should feature plenty of trips up and down the floor, volume alone could push this total north.

• Pick: Over 159.5 at -110 (BetMGM)

Expect Akron to put up a big number and UMass to chip in just enough to send this one over.