NCAA Basketball Best Bets (February 16): No. 3 Houston vs. No. 5 Iowa State

With Arizona losing two in a row last week, Houston is now in control of the Big 12. All the Cougars have to do is win their remaining games, and they’ll take home the regular-season Big 12 title. That begins with a huge matchup on the NCAA basketball schedule against No. 5 Iowa State tonight on the road. For the first time this season, Houston will go into a game as the underdog.

They aren’t massive dogs, just 2.5 points, and that can be attributed to Iowa State being a good team in its own right and playing at home. Whatever the reason, it should be a great game to watch and a lot of fun to bet on. Check out our rundown for ideas about your bets Monday.

(Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images)

Monday Matchup: No. 3 Houston Cougars vs. No. 5 Iowa State Cyclones

In a game projected to be as close as this one, momentum can make a significant difference. However, it is not easy to say who has it. Iowa State lost to TCU last Tuesday. But it bounced back with a win over No. 9 Kansas, taking down a red-hot Jayhawks team at home (where they are undefeated), 74-56.

Houston’s momentum has a different form to it. It’s not because it just recorded a massive win over a top-notch team. No, it’s because the Cougars have won six in a row and 17 of their last 18. In reference to their two losses, one was by three points (76-73 vs. Tennessee) and another by four (90-86 vs. Texas Tech).

So, Houston isn’t just coming off one great game but has been a dominant force all season long.

Houston ATS in recent games

There is something to be said for longevity and playing at a fairly consistent high level. But there is also something to be said for how a team is playing in the moment. The Cougars are winning games, but they took their foot off the gas in their last two and lost ATS down the stretch.

As for Iowa State, the loss to TCU (62-55) does put the Cyclones in a positive light. But the win over Kansas (74-56) sure does. The Jayhawks had been on fire, winning eight in a row before falling to the Cyclones by 18 points. Iowa State didn’t just beat a solid Kansas squad, it dominated.

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NCAA Basketball Best Bet: No. 3 Houston vs. No. 5 Iowa State

• UNDER 134.5 at -105 (FanDuel)

This is one I’ve gone back and forth on. Statistically, I can’t see where one team has an advantage over the other. That, to me, says this is a game that will go down to the wire and could be won/lost in the final moments. Yeah, so I’m staying away from the spread and moneyline. This game could go either way too easily.

That leaves the TOTAL, and I’ve gone back and forth on it, as well. Iowa State has a solid offense, arguably one of the better ones the Houston defense has faced. But Houston has finished UNDER the TOTAL in five straight games and in 10 of their last 13.

Iowa State has gone UNDER in nine of their last 12.