NCAA Basketball Best Bets (Feb. 28): Odds & Predictions For Key Big 12, ACC matchups

It’s the last day of February and the final Saturday slate where every NCAA basketball conference is still in regular-season mode. As much as I’d love to dive into the mid-majors as they wrap things up, there’s simply too much value sitting in the Big 12 and ACC on today’s board.

It may not be a loaded slate in terms of ranked matchups, but there are plenty of games hovering around even odds — and that can also make for an exciting day of games.

(Photo by David Buono/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

With that in mind, here are our best bets for the Feb. 28 NCAA basketball slate.

You can find all odds used in my NCAA basketball predictions at Bet365 and BetMGM.

Baylor at UCF prediction for February 28

I was genuinely shocked to see this game sitting around even odds.

UCF is a different team at home

With a 15-3 record in Orlando this season and doing it in what I consider the second-toughest conference in the country (I’ll still give the edge to the Big Ten), it’s fair to say UCF is a wagon when playing at home.

And it’s not just their record, UCF has several impressive home victories including Kansas, Texas Tech and TCU. The three losses? Arizona, Vanderbilt and West Virginia — all quality opponents.

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The Knights are getting hot at the right time

Heading into the final three games of the regular season, this feels like an ideal buy spot on the UCF Knights given the way they’re trending. The Knights are searching for their fourth straight win Saturday with recent victories over TCU, at Utah and, most impressively, at BYU.

The same can’t be said for Baylor, which has gone 2-5 in February, with its only wins coming at home against Colorado and Arizona State.

Now, I understand this could be viewed as a potential letdown spot for UCF. That’s fair. But I’m less inclined to buy into that narrative this late in the season. With the calendar turning to March and positioning in the Big 12 still very much in play, this feels more like a team building momentum than one due for a flat performance.

Reasons to bet the over Saturday

Strictly from a metrics standpoint, it’s fair to expect plenty of offense in this matchup.

According to KenPom, UCF ranks 30th nationally in offensive efficiency, while Baylor sits 33rd. I’m aware neither unit is considered elite offensively, but I believe both are far more dangerous than the surface numbers suggest.

Context matters here. Baylor has faced the second-toughest collective defenses in the country playing in a loaded Big 12 and navigating a difficult nonconference schedule. With those numbers now in consideration, that offense all of the sudden looks much better and should fare well against UCF’s 102nd-ranked defense.

UCF’s defensive strength of schedule isn’t as impressive. That being said, I still like the Knights to push the pace and score on Baylor’s 113th ranked defense on their home floor to clear this total.

• My Picks: UCF ML (-135 Bet365), Over 158 (-110 Bet365)

Expect scoring in Saturday's contest with UCF doing a majority of the damage.

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Pittsburgh at California prediction for February 28

I’ve liked what I’ve seen from the Bears this year, and it’s been refreshing to see this program become relevant again. But this bet is just as much about fading Pittsburgh as it is backing Cal.

Pitt has nothing left to play for

Pittsburgh has hung out near the bottom of the ACC all season and has completely bottomed out in February, with its only win coming against Notre Dame a couple weeks ago. At this point, the Panthers are playing for pride more than anything else.

That’s not the case for Cal. The Bears have won three straight and are positioning themselves for a potential first-round bye in the ACC tournament with a top-four seed still within reach.

Another interesting stat I noticed while doing betting research on this NCAA basketball matchup: Pittsburgh just played at Stanford, where the line closed at Stanford -9.5 and the Cardinal won by eight.

I think it’s clear Cal is a better team than Stanford. The Bears went on the road and handled Stanford 78-66, and according to KenPom, Cal ranks 60th nationally in adjusted efficiency margin compared to Stanford at 74th.

With that in mind, I believe we’re getting value on this shorter number, especially with Pitt still stuck on the road.

• My Pick: California -7 (-125 BetMGM)

Back the Bears here to continue their winning streak at home against an east coast team coming all the way across the map. As always, feel free to take the moneyline to boost up a parlay.

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SMU at Stanford prediction for February 28

Firmly on the bubble right now, SMU has been a fun team to watch this year. With a few more wins down the stretch, we should see this group hear its name called on Selection Sunday in a couple of weeks.

SMU’s offense is better and more sustainable

Not only is SMU considered the better offensive team in almost every metric — 11 more points per game and roughly 11 spots higher in KenPom’s offensive efficiency rating — but I also think its attack is simply more sustainable.

While Stanford leans heavily on freshman star Ebuka Okorie for offensive production — he's averaging 22.8 points per game — SMU spreads the wealth.

All five starters average double figures, and the backcourt star duo of Boopie Miller (18.6 ppg) and Jaron Pierre Jr. (17.4 ppg) gives the Mustangs a dynamic, high-level scoring punch that doesn’t rely on just one option.

Motivation edge favors the Mustangs on Saturday

Similar to the Cal bet, SMU, at 8-7 in ACC play, still has a legitimate chance to climb the conference ladder over the next week and secure a bye.

Stanford, at 6-9 in ACC play, is certainly competitive, but its seed ceiling is much lower as it can realistically only reach the 8 seed.

• My Pick: SMU ML (-115 BetMGM)

Back the Mustang’s top flight offense on the road as they continue to beef up their tournament resume.