NCAA Basketball Best Bets (Jan. 27): Purdue at Indiana Betting Odds & Top Picks

Tuesday night's college basketball card targets three favorites with clear matchup and situational advantages, even if the lines don’t immediately reflect it.

When favorites have both the personnel and spot advantage, we're perfectly fine laying a big number.

(Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images)

You can find all the odds used in my predictions at DraftKings and BetMGM.

Purdue at Indiana prediction for January 27

The disrespect to Purdue with this line is astounding, even on the road.

Purdue is in a prime bounce-back spot

The Boilermakers are coming off two straight losses, and for bettors that usually leads to one of two conclusions: either the team just isn’t very good, or they’re due for a win. I’m firmly in the latter camp.

Spot betting is never as simple as assuming a team is magically more motivated because it lost its last game. Every situation is different. And while we’re not in the locker room or at practice, you still have to lean on what you do know.

For Purdue, this screams bounce-back game largely because of coaching and veteran leadership. Matt Painter has proven time and again that his teams respond well after losses, especially in high-leverage conference spots.

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Purdue hasn’t lost a step on the road

Despite being an absolute wagon at home, Purdue has also taken care of business away from Mackey Arena. The Boilermakers are 5-1 on the road this season with signature wins over Alabama, Texas Tech, and Wisconsin.

Indiana will always elevate its play at Assembly Hall, but this number still feels short.

• Pick: Purdue -4.5 (-118 BetMGM)

Trust Painter and a group of battle-tested senior guards to right the ship in Bloomington.

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Richmond at VCU prediction for January 27

These two teams are heading in opposite directions as conference play moves along. VCU has won three straight, while Richmond has dropped three in a row.

Unlike past teams, VCU can score

The biggest difference between this VCU team and years past is simple: offense.

This Rams squad is balanced and guard-centric, playing through big man Lazar Djokivic. The athletic 6-foot-11 Serbian can stretch the floor and knock down shots from beyond the arc, and as he is most nights, he should be a problem for Richmond.

According to KenPom, VCU’s offensive efficiency rating sits at 120.7 this season. The improvement has been linear:

• 2023: 106.6

• 2024: 109.2

• Last season: 116

• This year: 120.7

That’s a massive leap for a program traditionally known for defense and pressure.

The strength-of-schedule gap is glaring

While VCU hasn’t exactly faced a gauntlet, Richmond’s schedule has been even softer. Despite sharing a conference, VCU ranks 100th in strength of schedule, compared to Richmond’s 241st.

The Rams are historically dominant at home

And then there’s the Siegel Center.

VCU’s home-court edge is very real. Over the past three seasons, the Rams are 37-9 at home, consistently overwhelming teams with pace, pressure, and energy.

• Pick: VCU -11.5 (-110 DraftKings)

Even if this looks like a potential bounce-back spot for Richmond, trust the better team in a brutal home environment.

New Mexico at UNLV prediction for January 27

This late-night Mountain West showdown in Vegas isn’t priced correctly.

Although this New Mexico team looks almost completely different — and significantly younger — than last season’s MWC regular-season and tournament champions, don’t expect the Lobos to be pushovers.

The defending conference champs are right back near the top of the standings in what looks like a deep, competitive Mountain West this year. And while New Mexico is still a well-respected program, expectations were tempered coming into the season with so much turnover from last year’s roster.

Instead of taking a step back, the Lobos are finding answers.

The freshman duo is peaking at the right time

Freshman guard Jake Hall and freshman forward Tomislav Buljan have been the driving force. Hall leads the team in scoring at nearly 15 points per game, while Buljan sits second on the team and is averaging a double-double. Their impact has been even more noticeable lately as conference play ramps up.

Over the past five games, Hall is averaging 19.2 points and 4.8 rebounds per game, and maybe more importantly, he’s committed just two total turnovers in that span. That kind of efficiency and ball security from a freshman guard is huge in a road environment like Vegas.

UNLV is always dangerous at home, but this number feels inflated. Although it was viewed like this earlier in the year, New Mexico’s youth isn’t a weakness right now.

• Pick: New Mexico -4.5 (-112 DraftKings)

Trust the Lobos to continue momentum behind their star young core.