NCAA Basketball Best Bets (March 4): Odds & Predictions For Key ACC, Big Ten Games

Wednesday’s NCAA basketball slate features some early stage mid-major conference tournament games, along with a bevy of Power Four regular season games that could potentially determine a school’s fate on Selection Sunday.

My best college basketball bet today features a team that fit’s exactly that — a true bubble team in the ACC that might be running out of time to get some signature wins but fading another bubble team in the Big Ten that might be in a look-ahead spot.

(Photo by Matthew Visinsky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

You can find all the odds used in my NCAA basketball predictions at FanDuel and BetMGM.

NCAA Basketball Bet For Wednesday, March 4: Miami at SMU prediction

SMU will have plenty to play for on Wednesday night coming off two road losses out west and still searching for its 20th win.

The Mustangs are a true bubble team

Firmly on the edge according to most bracket experts, every game carries weight this time of year and this one feels especially important.

SMU sits near the cut line in key predictive metrics like NET and KenPom and hasn’t put away enough marquee wins to feel totally safe, meaning an opportunity to get a Quad 1A win Wednesday night makes this the most important game of its season to this point. Even a narrow loss Wednesday could have outsized implications for the Mustangs' at‑large outlook come Selection Sunday.

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Trust SMU’s offense to carry it

Miami is deservedly ranked, but the Hurricanes are not elite in any one metric. When you start digging into the offensive numbers and stack them up against SMU, the differences are hard to ignore.

According to KenPom, SMU ranks 16th nationally in offensive efficiency, while the Canes sit at 44th. The gap becomes even more noticeable when you dig a bit more, the Mustangs are 4% better in effective field goal percentage and a massive 9% better from behind the arc.

It’s also worth noting SMU has faced significantly tougher defenses collectively (55th vs. 95th in defensive strength of schedule, per KenPom). Given that context, I trust the Mustangs to generate quality looks and put points on the board.

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My NCAA basketball pick: SMU ML at -118 (BetMGM)

• It being senior night should only add to the motivation. With leading scorer Boopie Miller (18.9 PPG, 6.7 APG), Jaron Pierre Jr. (17.6 PPG), B.J. Edwards (12.7 PPG, 2.3 SPG), and Corey Washington (11.6 PPG) all playing their final game at Moody Coliseum, expect a personal, maximum effort performance. Add in a 15-2 home record with the only losses coming against quality competition in NC State and Virginia, and this shapes up as an ideal spot for SMU to secure a statement win and strengthen its tournament resume.

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NCAA Basketball Bet For Wednesday, March 4: Ohio State at Penn State prediction

Both of these teams have certainly gone through inconsistency all season. However, only one of these squads still controls its postseason destiny.

After securing a statement win over Purdue, Ohio State remains firmly in the NCAA Tournament conversation and every remaining game carries weight. That said, this trip to State College presents a tricky scheduling spot.

The Buckeyes return home to face Indiana in what could be a fateful matchup between two bubble teams, making this road game a potential look-ahead scenario against a Penn State team that just picked up a big win over Iowa.

Defensive Concerns on Both Sides

Ohio State’s offense has the firepower to exploit weaknesses (21st nationally on KenPom, 54.6 effective field goal percentage), but its defense hasn’t been trustworthy over the last two months in Big Ten play.

Penn State’s defense, meanwhile, has been sitting at the bottom of the Big Ten throughout the entire year and ranks 233rd nationally in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.

That vulnerability is the primary concern in backing the Nittany Lions outright. However, in the first meeting between these teams (84-78 Ohio State win) — Penn State’s offense proved it could generate enough scoring to remain competitive.

Penn State’s Backcourt Advantage

Where Penn State might hold an edge Wednesday is in its balanced guard play. Kayden Mingo (13.7 PPG, 2.1 SPG) and Freddie Dilione V (14.0 PPG) provide scoring versatility and shot creation, while Josh Reed (11.7 PPG) has been effective spacing the floor from the forward position.

Additionally, another factor here is a consistent rotation from the Nittany Lions. It seems head coach Mike Rhoades has found some lineup stability as of late, with the same starting five for six consecutive games, making that the longest such stretch of the season.

As many teams are, Penn State has also been notably better at home — earning 10 of its 12 victories in Happy Valley. Throw in that it will be team’s last home game of the year, the senior’s last home game ever, paired with capable perimeter scoring and consistency in the rotation, suggests the Nittany Lions can keep this one close again.

My NCAA Basketball Picks: Penn State +8 at -125 (FanDuel), Over 152.5 at -115 (BetMGM)

• Despite neither team ranking among the nation’s fastest in tempo (Ohio State ranks 245th in adjusted tempo vs. Penn State’s 178th), both defenses present clear weaknesses. Ohio State’s inconsistency on that end, especially on the road, and Penn State’s overall defensive struggles point toward efficient scoring opportunities on both sides. Given the prior 162-point meeting and the spotty defensive metrics, the over appears to offer value in a matchup where efficiency should make up for a relatively slow pace. Back the Nittany Lions to defend their home court and keep this one close. Take the over if you’re too concerned about their defense.