NCAA Basketball Best Bets (March 6): Bubble Teams to Back in Big 12, A-10 & Mountain West Matchups

As we enter the final weekend of the NCAA basketball regular season, it’s important to take a hard look at true bubble teams worth backing that could potentially be playing for their tournament lives.

That’s exactly what I’ve targeted in Friday’s slate of games, picking out three bubble teams that I think have a good shot at getting the job done and heading into the conference tournament with another win for their resume and momentum.

(Photo by K.C. Alfred / The San Diego Union-Tribune via Getty Images)

You can find all odds used in my NCAA basketball predictions at FanDuel and Caesars Sportsbook.

NCAA Basketball Best Bet: UCF at West Virginia prediction for March 6

Expect a strong effort from West Virginia in its last game of the season at home.

Trust WVU’s defense, fade UCF’s in what should be a rock fight

The most glaring difference between these two teams is defense. According to KenPom analytics, West Virginia currently has the 23rd-best defense in the country, compared to UCF’s 117th-ranked defense.

I do recognize that UCF (20-9, 9-8 Big 12) has a significantly better offense (27th in the nation vs. 135th). That said, with a game total in the low 140s across most books, this matchup is expected to be a rock fight. Due to that game total, I believe it’s best to trust the home team with the superior defense.

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West Virginia is a bubble team but still desperate

The Mountaineers (17-13, 8-9 Big 12) are firmly on the bubble for Selection Sunday, frequently considered as one of the "next four out" or in contention, according to Joe Lunardi’s ESPN bracketology.

Despite being labeled a bubble team with their 5 Quad 1 wins, I think their tournament hopes are starting to look pretty slim after their most recent loss to Kansas State, likely requiring a win Friday to finish out the regular season and a run in the Big 12 tournament to secure a bid.

We’ll see how it shakes out and how other bubble teams perform down the stretch, but expect this final game in Morgantown to be one where the Mountaineers play with their back on the ropes. WVU features three players who average double figures led by senior guard Honor Huff's 15.4 points per game.

• The pick: West Virginia -4 at -110 (Caesar’s Sportsbook)

With a game total in the low 140s across most books, don’t be afraid to forget the points and take their money line in a parlay.

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NCAA Basketball Best Bet: VCU at Dayton prediction for March 6

There’s genuinely nothing I like more in NCAA basketball than when these two teams are competitive and meet up on a Friday night. And being at plus money, I think there’s too much value in VCU in a desperate spot.

VCU needs another Quad 1 win

Specifically hovering around the "Last Four In" or "First Four Out" range as of early March 2026 on Joe Lunardi’s bracketology, VCU is right on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.

Even with a 23-7 record (14-3 A-10), it typically takes a little bit more than 20+ wins to go dancing for teams in the A-10. As of now, VCU’s tournament hopes hinge on their 1–5 record against Quad 1 opponents and their performance in the upcoming Big 12 Conference Tournament but a win here would go a long way.

Lunardi said it live on an ESPN broadcast on Thursday night — a win Friday would essentially lock up a bid for VCU. Given that the Rams blew out Dayton earlier this year and almost put up 100 points, this would be the easiest path to getting that coveted second Quad 1 win and clinching.

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VCU holds an advantage in important metrics

With a total in the 140’s, this game might end up being a rock fight as we’ve seen in years past when these rivals match up. Because of that, I’m looking at specific advanced stats that I like to check in games that could be low-scoring.

VCU holds many of those metrics and then some. The Rams rank top 10 nationally in turnover percentage forced and top 25 in steal rate while sitting inside the top 15 in offensive rebounding percentage. All advantages that give them far more extra possessions than Dayton (21-9, 12-5) typically allows.

The rebounding gap also favors VCU. Specifically on the offensive glass, the Rams rank among the top-15 teams nationally in offensive rebound percentage at roughly 36%, while Dayton sits closer to 30%, a difference that gives VCU significantly more second-chance opportunities.

• The pick: VCU +1.5 at -102 (FanDuel)

Back the Rams to play like their season depends on it, because it just might. Senior guard Javon Bennett paces Dayton averaging 15.9 points while Terrence Hill Jr. (14.1 PPG) enters the game as VCU's leading scorer.

NCAA Basketball Best Bet: UNLV at San Diego State prediction for March 6

Trust the home favorite Aztecs (19-10, 13-5 MWC) to get the job done despite a nice run lately from UNLV.

The Runnin’ Rebels have won three of their last four games against good competition (vs. Utah State, Nevada and at Air Force) while San Diego State is on a bit of a downswing, losing four of their last five.

San Diego State searching for key 20th win

Despite looking like a tournament lock a couple weeks into February, the Aztecs are now fighting to stay in the tournament picture after their recent run.

Context needs to be taken into account here. All of those losses came against quality competition (vs Grand Canyon and at Colorado State, New Mexico, Boise State). Simply put, another loss tonight against UNLV would be catastrophic. It should be noted, outside of a November mishap against Troy, the Aztecs haven’t lost a game to an inferior competition all season.

They’ve been consistent all year long when playing worse teams, and most importantly for betting purposes — they typically win by double digits.

Defensive metrics put SDSU on a different level

Similar to the reason I’m backing West Virginia against UCF tonight, the difference in defense is glaring between these Mountain West squads.

Just strictly looking at KenPom analytics, San Diego State currently holds the 20th-best defense in the country while UNLV (16-14, 11-8) holds the 180th-ranked defense.

This difference holds up when looking at advanced metrics too. Not only does SDSU rank inside the top 20 nationally in defensive efficiency, it also ranks top 20 in two-point defense and top 15 in turnover percentage forced, while sitting top 10 nationally in both block percentage and non-steal turnover percentage.

Matchup history matters despite recent play

That trend of beating worse opponents on paper continued when San Diego State beat UNLV earlier this year by 11 at Vegas.

Even with both teams trending in opposite directions over the past two weeks, SDSU being significantly better at home (12-2, 7-7 ATS) and the clear better overall team in general makes me want to pull the trigger on this single-digit spread.

• The pick: San Diego State -9.5 at -120 (FanDuel)

The Aztecs absolutely need a win here, expect that and then some. SDSU leans on leading scorer Reese Dixon-Waters and his 13 points per game to guide the way offensively. UNLV junior guard Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn is one of the top scorers in the country and averages 20.6 points. He had 42 points on Feb. 28 against Nevada and has scored at least 30 points in four of his last six games.