NCAA Basketball Best Bets (Feb. 21): Michigan vs Duke Betting Odds, Predictions & Top Picks

I’m not exaggerating when I say this might be one of the best college basketball slates so far this year. With three ranked games and two of them being top-five matchups as we approach the end of February, it really doesn’t get much better than this. Is Saturday's slate a potential Final Four preview? No. 1 Michigan will face No. 3 Duke, and No. 4 Arizona will square off against No. 2 Houston. Let's take a look at the NCAA betting odds and picks for the Feb. 21 slate.

(Photo by Aaron J. Thornton/Getty Images)

You can find all the odds used in my predictions at DraftKings and BetMGM.

Michigan vs Duke NCAA Betting Odds & Prediction for Feb.21

• Michigan Wolverines (-2.5) | 148 ML
• Duke Blue Devils (+2.5) | +124 ML
• O/U 150.5

Arguably, the two best teams in the country will collide at Madison Square Garden on Saturday night.

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Michigan’s Depth, Interior Will Test Duke’s Secondary Scoring Options

With only three players in double digits in points per game, the Blue Devils have relied heavily on Cameron Boozer to run their entire offense this year.  While it’s worked incredibly well to this point, the length and depth of Michigan’s front court is a scary matchup for any player.

Boozer is undoubtedly one of the best pure scorers in the nation, but he’s going to have a hard time creating his own offense on Saturday night. Duke runs a motion offense with heavy spacing that opens up Boozer to drive it to the rim with solid shooters waiting on the perimeter if he needs to dish it out.

Essentially, if Boozer can’t win in those iso situations like he has all year because of Michigan’s elite interior defense, we’re going to see what this Duke offense looks like if it’s relying on secondary scoring options.

Now, Duke may be on from beyond the arc or have players step up offensively, but schematically, Michigan presents more matchup problems for the Blue Devils than Duke does for the Wolverines.

Back the Better Team On a Neutral Court

Simply put, while Duke has been considered a top-five team all season and Boozer might just be the best player in the country, they haven’t seen a team like Michigan yet.

I do recognize and worry that Duke might have more fans present as the game will be played on the East Coast. Even if that’s the case, still put faith in the Wolverines in a tough environment because they’ve earned it with their road resume this year.

It really should be a great game, but this is a simple one for me, and I’m taking the better team at a neutral venue. In almost every offensive and defensive metric available, Michigan grades out as the better team.

• NCAA Betting Pick: Michigan ML (-148 DraftKings)

Forget the points and take the moneyline in what might be a preview of a late March matchup.

Loyola Chicago at Saint Joseph’s NCAA Prediction for February 21

Coming into this matchup at an abysmal 6-21, it’s certainly been a down year for a Loyola program that has seen so much success in recent years.

Fade Loyola’s Defense

While Saint Joseph’s has struggled offensively this year, the difference between the two teams' defenses is the basis of this bet.

Out of 365 NCAA D-I teams, the Joes rank 75th while the Ramblers rank 315th in defensive efficiency. Add in that the Joes play significantly better defense at Hagan Arena and the Ramblers play even worse defense on the road- the difference becomes astronomical.

Saint Joseph Has A lot at Stake

While Loyola has nothing to play for but pride, Saint Joseph’s is still in the mix for a bye in the A-10 conference tournament.

Sitting at 8-5 and sixth in the A-10, the Joes still have a very real chance at obtaining up to the third seed by early March. While they won’t touch Saint Louis (13-1) or VCU (12-3), they’re right on George Mason’s (9-5) tail.

Despite a blowout win on the road against Loyola earlier this year, don’t expect this to be a trap game or the Joes take lightly with only so many games left to climb the A-10 ladder before seeds lock in.

• NCAA Betting Pick: Saint Joseph’s -9 (-120 BetMGM)

No matter the sport, it seems like away teams (and fans) never fare well in Philly. Back that completely unresearched trend again here and lay the points.

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Texas A&M at Oklahoma NCAA Betting Odds & Prediction for Feb. 21

• Texas A&M (+1.5) | -105 ML
• Oklahoma (-1.5) | -115 ML
• O/U 164.5

Expect points from a motivated Texas A&M team against arguably the worst defense in the SEC.

Despite a crawling pace on offense, Oklahoma has found itself in many high-scoring games this year, and its efficiency metrics paint the picture as to why that is. According to KenPom, the Sooners boast the 28th-best offense in the country but also own the 162nd-worst defense.

For Texas A&M, their 37th-ranked offense paired with their 26th fastest pace of play means they also profile as a team that should be involved in a lot of overs.

Add in that this is projected to be a close game, and we should see some late-game free throws to potentially push us over the total.

The Aggies Have Been Through a Gauntlet this Month

With a 1-4 record in February so far, the Aggies have surprisingly struggled following a 7-1 start to open conference play.

However, it should be noted that the competition in February has been significantly steeper for them. Their four losses this month have come at Alabama, at Vanderbilt, and against Florida and Missouri, not exactly losses easy to criticize.

The way I see it, the losses piling up recently, coupled with the fact that the season is almost over, makes this a desperate spot for the Aggies. A similar spot to the aforementioned Joes, don’t expect them to come in and take this game lightly.

• NCAA Betting Picks: Texas A&M ML (-118 BetMGM), Over 164.5 (-110 DraftKings)

Back the better team in a desperate spot, with a real chance that this game becomes a shootout.